Does Dave Stieb Deserve Another Chance at the Hall of Fame?

Almost. That’s the word that comes to mind when thinking about Dave Stieb, the superb Toronto Blue Jays starting pitcher with the wipeout slider who was arguably the best hurler in all of baseball in the 1980’s. In 1985, the Jays almost made the World Series for the first time in franchise history, but lost the final three games of the ALCS to the Kansas City Royals.

Behind Jack Morris, he won the second most games among all pitchers in the 1980’s. He was almost #1. Three times between 1988-89, Stieb was one out away from a no-hitter only to see it broken up. Almost, until finally he got his no-no in 1990.

There is one element in a great baseball player’s career to which “almost” does not apply to Dave Stieb. He did not “almost” make it into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York.

Stieb appeared on one BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot, in 2004. A total of 506 ballots were cast. Stieb received a measly 7 votes. With a 1.4% tally, Stieb was wiped away from future BBWAA ballots, having failed to meet the minimum threshold of 5%. Did Stieb get a raw deal? Did he deserve a longer look? And, does he deserve another look this fall by the “Modern Baseball” Eras Committee, the second chance balloting process that used to be called the Veterans Committee?

Cooperstown Cred: Dave Stieb (SP)

• Toronto Blue Jays (1979-92, 1998), Chicago White Sox (1993)
• Career: 176-137 (.562), 3.44 ERA in 2,895.1 IP
• Career: 122 ERA+, 56.5 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Led all A.L. pitchers in WAR for 3 straight seasons (1982-84)
• 7-time All-Star

(cover photo: Toronto Star)

Dave Stieb: Early Baseball Years

David Andrew Stieb was born on July 22, 1957 in Santa Ana, California, just 5 miles south of the future site of Anaheim Stadium. In his baseball days prior to become a professional, Stieb was an outfielder. As a junior at Southern Illinois in 1978, Stieb was a Sporting News All-American for his offensive prowess (.394 BA, 12 HR, 48 RBI).

Stieb was drafted by the Toronto Blue Jays in the 5th round of the 1978 draft. Although he had pitched very little in college, the Blue Jays’ brass saw something and made the wise decision to put the young right-hander on the mound. The Blue Jays, an expansion franchise in 1977, were lacking in superior talent, which helped Stieb make the majors fairly quickly. He tossed only 128 minor league innings before making his Major League Baseball debut on June 29, 1979, less than a month before his 22nd birthday.

As a rookie in ’79, Stieb went 8-8 with a 4.31 ERA.

In 1980, as one of the best two players on a bad team (the other being pitcher Jim Clancy), Stieb was selected to his first All-Star Game. For the season, on a 67-win team, the young righty went 12-15 with a 3.71 ERA. Stieb was an All-Star again in the strike-shortened 1981 season, which he finished at 11-10 with a 3.19 ERA.

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Dave Stieb’s Golden Years: 1982-85

As we’ll demonstrate shortly, by a variety of metrics Dave Stieb was the best pitcher in baseball for at least a four-year period, from 1982-85.

Ironically, Stieb was not selected to the All-Star squad in ’82, thanks to a first half start of 7-10 with a 3.96 ERA. In their first season under a new manager, future Hall of Famer Bobby Cox, the Jays were 37-47 in the first half of the campaign. Clancy (7-7, 3.56 ERA in the first half) was the Jays’ lone representative for that Mid-Summer Classic.

The second half of 1982, however, was breakout time for Stieb and for the Jays. The team went a respectable 41-37, led by Stieb, who went 10-4 with a 2.59 ERA. For this Stieb was recognized with a fourth place finish in the A.L. Cy Young voting, behind Pete Vuckovich, future Hall of Famer Jim Palmer and relief ace Dan Quisenberry.

Stieb had another excellent campaign in 1983, going 17-12 with a 3.04 ERA. In this season, Cox’ Jays finally became a contending team, Thanks in part to Stieb’s 10-7 record and 2.54 ERA in the first half of the season, the team hit the All-Star break with a one game lead in the highly competitive A.L. East. Stieb was selected to be the American League’s starting pitcher for the All-Star Game at Comiskey Park in Chicago.

In this particular July, Canada’s other team (Montreal Expos) also had a one-game lead in the National League East. The Expos were a star-laden bunch, with five players on the All-Star squad (future Hall of Famers Andre Dawson, Gary Carter, and Tim Raines, along with Al Oliver and Steve Rogers).

In his first Mid-Summer Classic starting assignment, Stieb tossed three innings of one-run ball (an unearned run) and was the game’s winning pitcher. In the regular season, although the Jays would not hang on to win the A.L. East, the team won 89 games, the most in franchise history. The Expos also fell short of the ’83 playoff party.

In 1984, another 89-win season for the Blue Jays, Stieb went 16-8 with a 2.83 ERA; he was an All-Star again and finished 7th in the Cy Young Award balloting. Again, the Jays’ right-hander was honored with the starting assignment in the Mid-Summer Classic. This time, he gave up two runs in two innings and was the losing pitcher.

Record-Setting Contract

Regardless of his Cy Young finishes, the Blue Jays brass realized they had a star in Dave Stieb. In March 1985, he was signed to a record-setting contract, touted as an 11-year deal, although in reality it was a four-year deal with seven club options. Still the contract contained $12.5 in guaranteed money with the potential to reach $53 million in incentives and deferments.

The 1985 season featured the first post-season appearance in Toronto Blue Jays history. The team won 99 games, with Stieb posting a surprisingly pedestrian 14-13 record but with a league-leading 2.48 ERA. Again, he finished 7th in the Cy Young Award derby.

On August 24, Stieb flirted with a no-hitter, tossing eight innings of no-hit ball before the White Sox’ Rudy Law spoiled the bid with a home run to lead off the 9th inning. Stieb allowed another home run to Bryan Little before being lifted for reliever Gary Lavelle.

“My arm was hurting. The only reason I was out there was because I had the no-hitter going. But when I threw those 10 last pitches, it was like throwing BP. I had nothing.”

— Dave Stieb (Toronto Star, Sept. 2015)

Using today’s metrics, Baseball Reference credits Stieb with leading all American League pitchers in WAR in 1982, ’83 and ’84, finishing second to Bret Saberhagen in ’85. In the “case for and against” section of this piece, I’ll take a look at whether Stieb might have deserved three Cy Young Awards. If, in an alternate reality, he had won three Cy’s that would have certainly altered the level of respect he received from Hall of Fame voters.

First Post-season Opportunity

As the A.L. East Champions, the Toronto Blue Jays were matched up against the Kansas City Royals, winners of the A.L. West for the 6th time in 10 years. The Royals were led by future Hall of Fame third baseman George Brett and 21-year old hurler Bret Saberhagen, who did win the Cy Young thanks to his 20-6 record and 2.87 ERA.

The Royals were in a pennant race with the California Angels until the final weekend of the campaign. Thus, Saberhagen was used on the second to last game of the regular season, making him unavailable to start the American League Championship Series. In Game One, Stieb was matched up against lefty Charlie Leibrandt; he and the Jays won easily 6-1, with Stieb throwing 8 inning of scoreless ball.

After the teams split the next two games, the Jays won Game Four by a 3-1 margin. Stieb tossed 6.2 innings of 2-hit, 1-run ball before yielding to relief ace Tom Henke, who was the winning pitcher when veteran outfielder Al Oliver delivered a two-run, 9th inning double off the Royals’ closer Dan Quisenberry.

If this series had taken place between 1969-84, the Jays would have won by a 3-1 series margin. 1985, however, was the first season in which the LCS round of the playoffs was expanded to seven games. One more victory was required. Kansas City won Games Five and Six, leading to a Game Seven, winner-take-all, finale, with Stieb and Saberhagen squaring off in a battle of aces.

Saberhagen bruised his thumb in the first inning and was only able to go for three innings. On the other side, the Royals beat up Stieb for 6 runs in 5.2 innings, with a 6th-inning 3-run triple by catcher Jim Sundberg sending him to the showers. Meanwhile, Leibrandt tossed 5.2 innings of 2-run ball in relief of Saberhagen to earn the victory and dash the Jays’ World Series hopes.

Dave Stieb and the Toronto Blue Jays almost made it to their first Fall Classic but fell short by losing the last three games of the series. Almost.

1986-87: Down Years

The first half of the 1986 season was truly miserable for Dave Stieb; he went 2-9 with a 5.80 ERA. Moss Klein, in The Sporting News, indicated that he might have had some elbow issues that forced him to de-emphasize his trademark slider. Stieb improved in the second half of the season but, with an overall 7-12 record (to go with a 4.74 ERA), it was easily the worst of the first eight seasons of his career. Without their ace in top form, the Jays slumped to 86 wins, finishing 9 games behind the A.L. East Champion Boston Red Sox.

In the 1987 season, the Jays were in a pennant race with the Detroit Tigers until the final weekend of the season. Again, Stieb was not at his best, going 13-9 with a 4.09 ERA. In his final start of the season (the team’s 159th game, against the Milwaukee Brewers), the former ace only lasted 4.1 innings, giving up 3 runs in a 5-2 loss. Overall, the Jays lost the final seven games of the campaign, allowing the Tigers to claim the A.L. East title by 2 games. All told, Stieb was 0-2 with a 5.84 ERA in September and, for a nearly two week period, was bounced from the rotation by manager Jimy Williams.

1988-90: Return to Excellence

Dave Stieb returned to form in 1988, going 16-8 with a 3.04 ERA while earning his 6th career All-Star berth. The 87-win Jays finished two games behind the A.L. East Champion Red Sox but not because of how Stieb fared down the stretch. In a baseball campaign in which the Dodgers’ Orel Hershiser closed the season with 59 scoreless inning, Stieb closed with a 33.1 inning scoreless streak of his own.

In his final two starts of the season, the now 31-year old right-hander had back to back outings in which he carried a no-hitter up until the final batter of the game. On September 24th in Cleveland, the Indians’ Julio Franco ruined Stieb’s no-hit bit with a ground ball to second base that hit a divot from a Cleveland Browns game to bounce over second baseman Manny Lee’s head.

Six days later, at home against Baltimore at Exhibition Stadium, Stieb once again was one out away from a no-no but Orioles’ pinch-hitter Jim Traber singled to right field on a bloop hit to spoil the moment. Almost.

“It’s a heart breaker. I’m just wrecked. You get through it all, the ball hits the bat, and you wait. Then it doesn’t happen.”

— Dave Stieb (reported in his SABR Bio and the L.A. Times, Oct 1, 1988)

Stieb had another solid campaign in 1989, going 17-8 with a 3.35 ERA, helping the Blue Jays to their second A.L. East title. On August 4th, for the third time in 12 months, Stieb lost a no-hitter on the final batter of the game, this time at the brand new SkyDome on a two-out double by the New York Yankees’ Roberto Kelly.

Up against the mighty Oakland Athletics in the ALCS, Stieb proved mortal, losing two starts (with a 6.35 ERA) to the A’s Dave Stewart in Oakland’s 5-game series victory.

1990 featured another superb campaign for Dave Stieb. He went 18-6 with a 2.93 ERA, made his 7th and final All-Star squad and finished 5th in the Cy Young Award balloting.

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1990 All-Star Game, Wrigley Field, Chicago

In his 17th win of the season, on September 2nd in Cleveland, Stieb finally got his no-hitter. In a 3-0 victory, Stieb got Indians’ second baseman Jerry Browne to line out to right field for the final out of the game.

“Relief and disbelief. Those are the two things I felt. Then the celebration ensued and it sank in. Wow, it really did happen. It felt good to get that off my back. I was thinking, now I don’t have to concern myself with everybody wishing me a no-hitter.”

— Dave Stieb (Toronto Star, Sept. 2015)

As for the Jays, the team’s 86 wins under 2nd year manager Cito Gaston fell two shy of Boston’s 88 victories.

1991-98: Dave Stieb’s Final Years in Baseball

In the 1991 season, Dave Stieb’s season ended after his 9th start of the year on May 22nd, with shoulder tendinitis and a herniated disc cutting his season short. In 1992, when the Blue Jays won their first World Championship, Stieb pitched only 96.1 innings, with his final appearance on August 8th. After having been the team’s dominant starting pitcher for 12 seasons, Stieb was merely a cheerleader, watching a rotation of Jack Morris, Jimmy Key, Juan Guzman and David Cone lead the team to their first title.

Stieb’s option was not picked up by the Blue Jays after the 1992 season; he signed a free agent contract with the Chicago White Sox. His one abbreviated season on Chicago’s South Side lasted only four starts; he was released after going 1-3 with a 6.04 ERA in 4 starts. After his release by the Chisox, Stieb signed a minor league deal with the Kansas City Royals but was released again six weeks later.

Having been released just 8 days after his 36th birthday, Dave Stieb decided to retire. After four full seasons away from the mound, Stieb mounted a comeback at the age of 40, posting a 4.83 ERA in 50.1 innings with the 1998 Blue Jays. After the season, Stieb retired again, this time for good.

No Respect for Dave Stieb from the BBWAA

Because of his brief MLB comeback in 1998, Dave Stieb wasn’t eligible for the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot until 2004. As we’ve seen earlier, Stieb got only 7 out of a possible 506 votes (1.4%), far below the 5% needed to remain on future ballots.

Let’s be fair. Stieb’s career record (176-137, with a 3.44 ERA in 2,895.1 IP) does not scream “Cooperstown” in neon lights. Still, should he have gotten more respect?

“I said right off the bat, ‘I don’t belong in the Hall of Fame, I did not win enough games and so forth…

However…

…I surely did not deserve to be just wiped off the map after the first-year ballot. It’s like, please, amuse me and string me out for two, three years… It’s like an insult… What it told me was in (the writers’) minds, I didn’t even do anything worth recognizing.”

— Dave Stieb (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2017)

Who Else was on the 2004 Ballot?

Should Dave Stieb been marked as one of the 10 selections on more ballots than he was? Although the 2004 BBWAA ballot wasn’t as jam-packed as the ones we’ve seen in the last 5-6 years, it had plenty of talent. Among the other first-time eligible players in 2004 were Paul Molitor and Dennis Eckersley, a player and pitcher who had long careers and reached milestone numbers. Both were first-ballot selections to the Hall of Fame.

In addition, there were six other players on the ballot who would eventually be inducted into Cooperstown by the BBWAA (Ryne Sandberg, Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Jim, Rice, Andre Dawson and Bert Blyleven) and three others (Jack Morris, Alan Trammell and Lee Smith) who would later become Eras Committee selections. The ballot also had popular players such as Steve Garvey, Tommy John, Don Mattingly, Dale Murphy, Dave Parker, Keith Hernandez, Fernando Valenzuela and Dave Concepcion, all competing for votes.

Besides Molitor and Eckersley, the other first-timers on the ballot included two of Stieb’s teammates in Toronto (outfielder Joe Carter and pitcher Jimmy Key) along with Dennis Martinez, star hurler for the Expos. Carter had 396 career home runs and one of October’s most famous big flies but he barely fared better than Stieb, getting just 3.8% of the vote.

Martinez (3.2%) and Key (0.6%) joined Carter and Stieb as first-ballot “one and done” casualties, while Valenzuela was aged off on his second ballot with a 3.8% tally.

Comparing Stieb to Martinez, Key and Valenzuela

Was Dave Stieb any more worthy of the Hall of Fame than fellow “less than 5 percenters” Martinez, Key or Valenzuela?

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Remember that, in 2004, writers were not aware of developing metrics like WAR or ERA+. They were still focused on wins, losses, ERA, strikeouts and “accomplishments” (All-Star appearances, Cy Young Awards, 20-win seasons, no-hitters, postseason glory).

Think about Stieb and Key for a minute. Neither had a 20-win season or Cy Young. Stieb had a no-no and two more All-Star appearances but Key was a contributor to two World Series Championships (1992 with Toronto and 1996 with the New York Yankees). Key had a better won-loss record and a similar ERA. What’s the huge difference on the surface? The writers clearly didn’t see one.

What about Martinez, the favorite son of Nicaragua? El Presidente only had 4 All-Star berths but he did have a perfect game. Martinez also pitched over a thousand more innings than Stieb.

By both the basic and advanced numbers, the weakest of this quartet is the Mexican-born Valenzuela. Fernando, however, was by far the biggest “star” of the group. As a rookie in 1981, Fernando-mania swept the nation as the 20-year old hurler won the N.L. Cy Young, Rookie of the Year and helped the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series.

The point to this boring story is that one can hardly fault the 2004 writers for drumming Dave Stieb off the Hall of Fame ballot if they didn’t also see merit in these other three accomplished hurlers.

What’s the Hall of Fame Case for Dave Stieb?

Because he only pitched 11 full seasons in which he qualified for the ERA title, the Cooperstown case for Dave Stieb must be a peak performance case. The Blue Jays right-hander finished his career with 2,895.1 innings pitched. There are only 9 Hall of Fame-enshrined starting pitchers with fewer total IP. Only four of these hurlers pitched after World War II (Bob Lemon, Sandy Koufax, Pedro Martinez and Roy Halladay).

Lemon (207-128, 3.23 ERA, 119 ERA+, 37.6 WAR) was clearly a peak performance Hall of Famer. Thanks to his military service in WWII and a career shortened by bone chips in his right elbow, Lemon only had 10 ERA-qualifying seasons. In those seasons, however, he won 20 games 6 times; writers used to care about such things.

Thanks to 571 extra innings pitched, Stieb’s WAR (56.5) is actually better than Koufax’s (53.1). However, the Left Arm of God won 3 Cy Youngs, 3 World Series rings (as the MVP twice) and had a career W-L of 165-87 (.655). Not a valid comparison.

Nobody in their right mind would compare Stieb to the brilliant Martinez, a 3-time Cy Young Award winner who posted a 2.93 ERA in the height of the steroid era.

So, among post-WWII Hall of Famers with less than 3,000 IP, that leaves another Blue Jays ace, the late Doc Halladay, who tragically perished two years ago in a self-piloted plane crash and was inducted into Cooperstown this past July.

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By the numbers, Halladay clearly had the better career, and by a significant margin.

Best Pitcher in Baseball (1982-85)

If any Hall of Fame case can be made for Dave Stieb, it is that he was the best pitcher in baseball for a significant period of time. By any discernible metric (those used in the 1980’s or those used today), Stieb was far and away the best pitcher in the game from 1982 to 1985.

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QS = Quality Starts (min. 6 IP, 3 ER or less)

WPA = Win Probability Added (measures clutch performance, see Glossary)

The last three metrics on this chart weren’t developed until approximately two decades after the years in question. Quality Starts was a statistic invented in 1985 and, for many years, was derided as NOT being a quality statistic, because 3 ER in 6 IP represents a 4.50 ERA. Still, that’s the worst you can do when tossing a Quality Start; it’s a good measure of a starting pitcher giving his team a chance to win.

Anyway, whether you use the old school statistic of ERA or the modern metrics of WPA, ERA+ and WAR, Stieb certainly looks like the best pitcher in baseball for these four years.

The next question is that, if his excellence had been properly recognized, would he have won multiple Cy Youngs and thus had a higher Hall of Fame profile. If you were a wizard and could wave a magic wand to change the winners of all awards in MLB history to the player or pitcher who had the highest WAR (per Baseball Reference), Dave Stieb would own three Cy Young Awards. Remembering, of course, that this was a statistic that was decades away from being invented, Stieb led the A.L. in WAR for pitchers in 1982, ’83 and ’84 and was second in ’85.

I’m going to go through each of Stieb’s best seasons in what might feel like excruciating detail but the exercise is crucial in determining his worthiness for Cooperstown. The Jays’ right-hander is short on career counting stats and lacking in Cy Young hardware. It’s important to determine whether Stieb deserved multiple Cy’s.

Dave Stieb in 1982: 17-14, 3.25 ERA (7.6 WAR)

Whether you use traditional statistics or modern ones, Pete Vuckovich did not deserve to win the 1982 Cy Young Award. The question of the moment is whether Stieb deserved that honor.

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Clearly, the writers were way off in the selection of Vuckovich. It was a vote based on his .750 winning percentage for a team (the Milwaukee Brewers) that had the most wins in baseball with 95. First of all, it shouldn’t have taken rocket scientists to notice that Stieb’s 17 wins for a 78-win Jays’ team might have been better than Vuckovich’s 18 wins for the Brewers. The same is true for Jim Clancy’s 16 wins for the Jays or LaMarr Hoyt‘s 19 wins for the 87-win Chicago White Sox.

What should have been even more obvious, even in an era decades before WAR, was that Vuckovich had just 105 strikeouts against 102 walks, the second most in the entire league. That’s a hideous SO/BB ratio, 4th worst in the league for ERA-qualified starters.

A more legitimate case could have been made for Palmer or Rick Sutcliffe (who led the league in ERA). Still, what makes Stieb’s performance the most superior is that he led the league in innings pitched (288.1), complete games (19) and shutouts (5).

Finally, regarding Stieb’s mediocre won-loss record (17-14) compared to Vuckovich’s or Geoff Zahn‘s, there is the matter of run support. Although run support for starting pitchers was something that wasn’t contemplated by writers in 1982, it was “out there,” thanks to the Bill James Baseball Abstract. By manually compiling box score data, James proved that run support doesn’t come close to “evening out” over the course of a season and that it had a significant impact on a pitcher’s wins and losses.

Anyway, Vuckovich benefited from run support of 5.2 runs per game from Harvey’s Wallbangers (a team nickname conferred upon the homer-happy lineup under manager Harvey Kuenn). Zahn, pitching for the A.L. West Champion California Angels, received a whopping 5.6 runs per game.

By comparison, Palmer and Sutcliffe got 4.5 runs/game while Stieb labored with just 3.9 runs/game. To get those 17 wins, Stieb had to be brilliant. In fact, he posted a 1.18 ERA in those starts, completing 13 of them. Only once in those 17 wins did he give up more than 2 earned runs. He didn’t get any cheap W’s. Meanwhile, Vuckovich gave up 3 ER or more in 9 of his 18 wins.

In my book, if a writer merely looked at the line scores and pitching lines from the starts of all of the top Cy Young candidates, Stieb would have been a good choice.

Dave Stieb in 1983: 17-12, 3.04 (7.0 WAR)

In 1983, Stieb did not receive one Cy Young vote despite another excellent season. The Chicago White Sox’ LaMarr Hoyt, a 24-game winner for the A.L. West Champions, won the award fairly easily, with Dan Quisenberry finishing in 2nd, thanks to 45 saves, which exceeded the previous all-time record by 7.

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Considering the amount of stock that baseball writers used to put into won-loss records and winning 20 games in particular, it’s not surprising that Stieb didn’t get even a 3rd place vote in a season in which four hurlers won 20 games or more. Today, Baseball Reference’s WAR tells us that Stieb was the best pitcher in the league. Are there numbers that were available to writers in 1983 that would lead to the same conclusion in a parallel universe where wins and losses were deemed irrelevant?

Well, Stieb did not win the ERA title but he did finish third in the league, behind Rick Honeycutt (2.42 ERA in 174.2 IP) and Mike Boddicker (2.77 ERA in 179.0 IP). Considering that Stieb tossed about 100 innings more than both, we can clearly give Stieb credit for the best ERA among heavy-workload hurlers.

Regarding base-runners, Hoyt’s WHIP (1.024) was the best in the league, as was his strikeout-to-walk ratio (4.77). His WAR is lower than the other contenders simply because his ERA was higher. That’s thanks to numbers not widely available in 1983; Hoyt yielded a .732 OPS with runners on base compared to a .604 OPS with the bases empty. Today, FanGraphs tells us that Hoyt stranded only 66.5% of all runners he put on base, the 3rd worst among the 46 pitchers who qualified for the ERA title.

Regarding run support, it wouldn’t have been obvious that, on a 89-win team, Stieb was impacted by less than superb hitting from his teammates but that was in fact the case once again in ’83. The Jays scored 4.4 runs per game in Stieb’s 36 starts, compared to the 5.5 runs per contest Hoyt enjoyed. Hoyt’s 22-game-winning teammate (Richard Dotson) got a whopping 6.0 runs per start. Among the other starting pitchers who received Cy Young votes, Jack Morris and Ron Guidry both got 4.8 R/GS while Scott McGregor got 5.3 R/GS.

Hoyt won 11 games in which he gave up 3+ runs (with 5 wins in which he yielded 4 or more). Only 6 of Morris’ 20 wins came in games in which he gave up 3+ runs (only one with 4+). Guidry won 8 games with 3 or more runs given up, with 3 wins in which he gave up 4 or more. Dotson had 7 wins in games in which he yielded 3+ runs, 2 with 4 or more.

Now, let’s again put ourselves in a 1983 writer’s shoes. Stieb had the best ERA among the contenders but it wasn’t dramatically better than McGregor’s, Dotson’s or Morris’.

Anyway, even today the league leader in WAR doesn’t always win the Cy Young Award. It’s a pretty big stretch to say, looking back 36 years, that Stieb was robbed of it in 1983. Hoyt was not an unreasonable selection and Morris might have had a stronger case than anyone. The Tigers’ ace led the league in IP (293.2), strikeouts (232) and was second to Guidry with 20 complete games.

Morris’ ERA (3.34) was in range of Stieb’s (3.04) and he closed the season in much stronger fashion, posting a a 2.58 ERA in his last 26 starts compared to Stieb’s 3.94 ERA in his final 26 efforts.

Dave Stieb in 1984: 16-8, 2.83 ERA (7.9 WAR)

You might have noticed that I didn’t discuss Quisenberry much in the analysis of who deserved the 1982 or ’83 Cy Young Awards because, today, relievers aren’t seriously considered for the award. This was a time in history, however, when relief pitchers were given a lot of love by the writers when it came to Cy Young voting. In fairness, the best closers of yesteryear usually logged well over 100 innings.

Anyway, from 1974 to 1992, relief pitchers won the Cy Young Award eight times, including in 1984, when Detroit’s Willie Hernandez took the trophy. In this particular year, Quisenberry was the runner-up for the second straight season.

Once again, for the third straight season, Dave Stieb was the WAR leader. I’m sure he’s proud of that now but oblivious to it then. Once again, he was far away from the Cy Young, receiving just one third place vote.

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Let’s dispense with the apples-to-oranges discussion about Stieb was a more worthy Cy Young choice than either Hernandez or Quiz. Instead, we’ll ask if he was the A.L.’s best starter in 1984.

We’ll begin with ERA; Boddicker was the league’s ERA champion among qualified starters, barely besting Stieb and Bert Blyleven. When you consider that Baltimore’s Memorial Stadium was a much better pitcher’s park than Toronto’s Exhibition Stadium, it’s fair to say that Stieb’s 2.83 was superior to Boddicker’s 2.79. Park-adjusted ERA+ confirms this, giving Stieb a 146 mark to Boddicker’s 139 and Blyleven’s 144.

Stieb’s and Blyleven’s WHIP were identical, with Boddicker barely behind. Stieb was 2nd to Mark Langston in the league with 198 strikeouts but Blyleven’s superior control gave him a slightly better SO/BB ratio.

We’ve looked at run support in the previous years’ analyses and, again, Stieb got the short end of the stick, getting 4.2 RS/G compared to Boddicker’s 4.4 and Blyleven’s 5.3. They Flying Dutchman gave up 3 or more runs in 9 of his 19 wins; Stieb only did that 4 times among his 16 W’s, with Boddicker doing it 6 times out of 20.

When it comes to Quality Starts, Stieb reigns over the others with 26 of his 35 starts being labeled “quality.” Blyleven had 21 Quality Starts, Boddicker 20.

In retrospect, it’s surprising that Blyleven edged Boddicker in the Cy Young voting, considering that the Orioles’ righty was the league’s only 20-game winner and had the ERA title as well.

Regardless, looking back, among starting pitchers, it’s clear that this should have been a three-way toss-up between Stieb, Blyleven and Boddicker. Perhaps Stieb deserves the nod because of the superior number of Quality Starts and getting only 4 fewer wins than Boddicker (3 fewer than Blyleven) despite over a run less of run support per game.

However, although I’m not normally a fan of relief pitchers as Cy Young Award winners, Willie (call me “Guillermo”) Hernandez had a ridiculously great season. A 1.92 ERA over 140.1 innings is patently superb, especially since a great deal of those innings were in high leverage situations. Hernandez’ 8.65 WPA was four “wins” better than the second best number (4.64) posted by Quisenberry and more than double the mark logged by any starting pitcher. Since World War II, only Dwight Gooden‘s 1985 campaign featured a higher WPA than what Hernandez accomplished in ’84. If I were the wizard of the Cy Young universe, I’d happily let Guillermo keep his ’84 trophy.

Dave Stieb in 1985: 14-13, 2.48 ERA (6.8 WAR)

After leading all A.L. pitchers in WAR from 1982-84, Stieb was second best in 1985, slightly behind Bret Saberhagen, the 21-year old ace of the eventual World Series Champion Kansas City Royals.

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Although Stieb was the ERA leader this year among qualified starters, it’s hard to quibble with the Cy Young selection of Saberhagen, who led the league in WHIP and SO/BB ratio (4.16). In real life, it’s obvious that Stieb finished only 7th in the vote because of his 14-13 won-loss record.

There are points in Stieb’s favor over Saberhagen and the rest of the field. Once again, even while pitching for the 99-win Jays, Stieb was a hard luck starter. Although Sabes and Stieb each received the same level of run support (4.5 RS/G), the way it happened was clearly in favor of the younger hurler.

Stieb had 4 starts in which he left the game with a lead of 3 runs or more and received a no-decision thanks to a leaky bullpen.  Twice the bullpen blew leads of 5 or more runs, robbing their ace of a victory. In addition, Stieb gave up 2 runs or fewer in 8 innings or more in 4 of this 13 losses. In the meantime, the Royals bullpen (led by Quisenberry) only blew two leads for Saberhagen, both of just 2 runs.

Overall, Stieb had 27 Quality Starts (QS), posting a 1.43 ERA in those outings, which resulted in just 13 wins against 6 losses. Saberhagen had 23 QS and was rewarded with 18 wins and just 3 losses in those efforts.

Among the other top contenders for the ’85 Cy Young, Guidry got to 22 wins thanks in part to a whopping 5.6 RS/G. In 6 of his 22 wins, Gator gave up 4 or more runs. Stieb gave up more than 2 runs in just one of his 14 victories.

Blyleven, splitting time between Cleveland and Minnesota, received just 4.2 RS/G. Still, the pride of the Netherlands earned his 16 losses, giving up 4 or more runs in 14 of them. Stieb, by comparison, gave up 4 or more runs in just 8 of his 13 losses, yielding just 2 runs in 4 of them.

What’s the bottom line: was Stieb robbed of a Cy Young in 1985? I can’t say “yes” to that; Saberhagen had a great year. Still, Stieb should have done better than finishing tied for 7th in the vote.

1986-1990: Reduced Workload

As we saw earlier, Dave Stieb was baseball’s greatest workhorse early in his career, leading all of MLB in innings pitched from 1982-85 (averaging 275 innings per season). In the years that followed, Stieb’s workload was reduced. From 1986-90, while remaining effective (with a 3.62 ERA), Stieb averaged just 203 innings per campaign. Stieb had the most innings pitched from ’82-’85 but just the 24th most from ’86-’90.

During these five seasons (among the 58 pitchers with at least 600 IP), Stieb ranked just 24th in IP, 31st in ERA, 36th in WHIP, 20th in QS, 20th in WAR, 20th in ERA+, and 20th in WPA. No matter how you slice it or dice it, Stieb was not an elite hurler during these five years.

The irony is that, after years of poor run support, Stieb received an average of 5.1 RS/G from 1986-90, allowing him to log the 13th most wins and 7th best winning percentage in MLB despite the reduced workload.

1990: 18-6, 2.93 ERA (5.9 WAR)

1990, just his age 32 season, was the final healthy campaign of Dave Stieb’s career. With his finest win-loss percentage (.750), Stieb was recognized at a higher level than in some of his early ’80’s campaign where his performance was greater. He made his 7th and last All-Star squad and was 5th in the Cy Young voting.

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The writers got it wrong in 1990, falling in love with Bob Welch‘s 27 wins, the most in Major League Baseball since Steve Carlton‘s season in 1972 when he won 27 games despite pitching for a team that went 59-97. Carlton won his 27 games with just 3.8 RS/G. Welch received 5.2 RS/G from the Bash Brothers and friends.

Just look at the numbers. Clearly Roger Clemens was the pitcher who deserved the Cy Young Award, not Welch and not Stieb either. If it were up to me, I probably would have kept Stieb in 5th or 6th place, behind Clemens, Chuck Finley, Dave Stewart, Nolan Ryan (13-9, 3.44 ERA, led A.L. in K’s and WHIP) and perhaps Erik Hanson (18-9, 3.24 ERA) as well.

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Best Pitcher for Six Years? For Eleven?

We’ve seen that Dave Stieb was the best pitcher in baseball for a four-year period of 1982-85. But four years is a short event horizon if you want to confer a Hall of Fame plaque upon said pitcher.

So, let’s expand the years to six years (from 1980-85) and eleven (from 1980-90). How does Stieb fare in these longer time periods?

First, we’ll take a look at 1980 (Stieb’s first full season) through 1985, his last season of dominance.

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This is a significant chart in favor of the Hall of Fame candidacy for Stieb. While he’s “only” 4th in ERA, the three pitchers ahead of him were all National League hurlers, who had the benefit of facing the opposing pitcher every night in the 9th spot of the batting order. In the A.L. only with a designated hitter every night, Stieb’s 3.07 ERA is easily the best, beating out Blyleven (3.20) and Dan Petry (3.46).

Additionally, while Stieb is 4th in WHIP and BAA, again he’s first among A.L. hurlers.

In the advanced metrics of WAR, WPA and ERA+, Stieb is way ahead of everyone, with Hall of Famer Steve Carlton a distant second.

By the way, if you believe in seven year peaks being more relevant than six years, we can include Stieb’s so-so 129.1 inning rookie season. The results are mostly unchanged. He is still tops in WAR, WPA, ERA+ and best in the A.L. in ERA and BAA.

1980-1991

Next, let’s take an eleven-year look, encompassing all of Stieb’s ERA-qualified seasons (1980-90):

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This looks pretty darned terrific as well. If you believe in WAR, Dave Stieb (with a 53.9 WAR) was the best pitcher in all of Major League Baseball for a significant period of time, far ahead of Roger Clemens (45.9) and even further ahead of the person in 3rd place (Bob Welch, at 38.2).

Let’s remember, however, that Clemens accumulated his 45.9 WAR in just 7 seasons (1984-90). Clemens was and would become one of the best ever in the game of baseball. 

As for some of the rate stats (ones that are influenced by the presence of lack thereof of a designated hitter), Stieb’s ranks are even more impressive among A.L. starters. He’s 2nd in ERA, 2nd in WHIP (only behind Clemens in both) and 3rd in BAA (to Clemens and Charlie Hough). He was 2nd (to Morris) in strikeouts among A.L. hurlers.

Are Dave Stieb’s 11 Years Good Enough?

I have to admit, “best pitcher in baseball for 11 years” is a pretty darned good one-sentence pitch for a Hall of Fame candidacy. There are a great number of actual Hall of Famers who were never the best in the game for a period of time of that length. There are many Hall of Famers who were the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th best hurlers in the game for their best 11 years but made it into Cooperstown by lasting long enough to pad their statistical resumes with several more above average, mediocre or even poor seasons.

That’s not how it went for Stieb. He only logged 358 innings in the five seasons that were not a part of his 11-year peak. Only 18 of his 176 career wins occurred during those other five seasons. This of course is why Stieb never got within 100 proverbial miles of the Hall of Fame.

The question I asked myself is whether there were other examples of pitchers outside of the Hall of Fame who were the 11-year WAR leaders or posted 53.9 or better for 11 years.

To be clear, there are two different questions:

1. Are there any other 11-year pitching WAR leaders who are not in the Hall of Fame?
2. Are there any other non-enshrined pitchers who posted 53.9 WAR over 11 years?

Are there 11-year pitching WAR leaders not in the Hall of Fame?

The answer to question #1 is that you only have to go back three years to find an 11-year WAR leader who is absent Cooperstown. New York Yankees lefty Ron Guidry led all pitchers with a 47.5 WAR from 1977-1987. However, the next example is a whopping 99 years earlier. From 1878-88, Jim McCormick led all hurlers with a 76.0 WAR. McCormick actually pitched for only 10 seasons. Frankly, Stieb and McCormick is an apples to bowling balls comparison because the game was so different in McCormick’s era.

The only other examples after McCormick and Guidry of 11-year WAR leaders who aren’t in the Hall are modern, still-active pitchers. Felix Hernandez led all pitchers in WAR from 2005-2015 with a 50.0 mark. Sadly, King Felix’s career success has stalled since those 11 superlative years.

Other non-enshrined pitchers who have posted 53.9 WAR for 11 years

How about #2? Are there others who posted a 53.9 WAR for 11 years who aren’t in the Hall, even if they didn’t lead all hurlers for that period of time. The answer to this question is “yes.” In the last few decades, David Cone, Kevin Brown, and Curt Schilling have all bettered 53.9 for 11-year stretches and aren’t in the Hall. However, there aren’t any others in the over 100 years between McCormick and Stieb.

There are, however, other examples of not-still-active hurlers absent the Hall who posted a 50.0 WAR or better for 11 or more years.

• Eddie Cicotte (1910-20): 53.2 (banned from MLB for his role in the Black Sox scandal)
• Urban Shocker (1917-27): 52.8
• Bret Saberhagen (1985-95): 51.0
• David Cone (1988-98): 54.7 
• Kevin Brown (1991-01): 56.1
• Curt Schilling (1996-06): 64.5
• Johan Santana (2000-10): 50.9
• Roy Oswalt (2001-11): 51.2

Stieb’s 53.9 WAR from 1980-90 is better than the 11-year peaks of Cicotte, Shocker, Saberhagen, Santana, or Oswalt but not that much better. Cone’s and Brown’s are better and of course Schilling deserves to be in the Hall of Fame (and likely will be soon).

The lack of quality starters in the Stieb era

Dave Stieb happened to begin his MLB career at a period in history in which there was an unusual dearth of new Hall of Fame quality pitchers. Remarkably, only five Hall of Fame pitchers made their MLB debuts in the 15-year span of 1971 to 1985: Goose Gossage, Dennis Eckersley, Bruce Sutter, Lee Smith and Jack Morris. That’s three relief pitchers, a “hybrid” (Eckersley) and one, just one, pure starter (Morris).

By comparison, 14 Hall of Famers (13 starters plus Rollie Fingers) debuted in the 15 years between 1956 and 1970. So far, 9 Hall of Famers (6 starters, 3 relievers) made their debuts between 1986 and 2000.

The absence of starting pitchers who first toed the rubber between 1971 and ’85 is just plain weird. Besides Stieb, there are many others who looked like they were on their way to Hall of Fame plaques but were derailed by injuries, substance abuse, late-career ineffectiveness, or PED scandal. I’m talking about Clemens, Saberhagen, Hershiser, Langston, Gooden, Guidry, Frank Tanana, Steve Rogers and Valenzuela.

If Jack Morris is in the Hall of Fame….

Is it good enough to argue that a pitcher deserves to be in the Hall of Fame because they reigned supreme over a weak era of moundsmen? If you buy the notion that Dave Stieb was the best pitcher of the 1980’s (and the best not named Clemens who debuted from ’71 and ’85), that’s a legitimate argument.

There’s also the Jack Morris factor. Because the two mustachioed righties were two of the most dominant and durable pitchers in the 1980’s, it’s natural to compare the two. In an era before sabermetrics, Morris advocates touted that he had by far the most wins (162) in the ’80’s, far outpacing Stieb’s 140.

I’m going to repeat and paraphrase a couple of paragraphs I wrote about Stieb and Morris in this piece I wrote about Jack shortly after his election to the Hall.

Let’s start by saying that it is an absolute fact Stieb has better run-prevention numbers during the totality of the two hurlers’ careers. He gave up fewer hits, home runs and walks per 9 innings than Morris did in his career.

If you take a look at where the two hurlers stood after the 1990 season (an All-Star campaign for Stieb and a poor one for Morris), the only advantage to Morris is the win total (due to completing more starts and pitching on better teams in the early 1980’s).

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If both players’ careers ended after 1990, I would have to rank Stieb above Morris. Other than the wins, his numbers were better. Also, he made 7 All-Star teams in the 1980’s (which included 2 starts) compared to 4 for Morris.

But their careers didn’t end after 1990. Morris signed a free-agent contract with Minnesota for 1991 (and won the World Series) and then signed with Stieb’s Blue Jays in 1992 (and won the World Series). In the meantime, Stieb was hurt for most of both seasons and didn’t appear in either post-season.

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After 1992, Morris had two mediocre campaigns (17-18, 5.91 ERA combined) in ’93 with Toronto and ’94 with Cleveland. Stieb pitched just 22.1 innings in 1993 with the Chicago White Sox, missed the next four seasons and, in a ’98 comeback with Toronto, posted a 4.83 ERA in 50.1 innings.

All in all, although Stieb’s career ERA of 3.44 and WAR of 56.5 were far superior to Morris’ 3.90 ERA and 43.5 WAR, Morris finished with 78 more wins. All team sports are ultimately about wins, losses and championships. Morris won more games. Morris helped his teams win the World Series three times; Stieb didn’t. Small sample size though it may be, in his two ALCS starts that were in “win or go home” scenarios, Stieb gave up 8 runs in 11.1 innings, losing both elimination games.

“He (Jack Morris) was an awesome pitcher… He was an animal, a bulldog-like [workhorse], and wanted to win like no one else. I totally respect him and his skills and what he did. But if you had to look at everything, I think I was the best.”

— David Stieb (to Graham Womack of The Sporting News, February 2017)

Pound for pound, Stieb is right. He was the better pitcher. But showing up counts too. Morris started 115 more games, pitched 928.1 more innings and won 78 more games.

If you’re picking a “pitcher for the ’80’s,” just the 1980’s and not beyond, I’d be inclined to agree with the selection of Dave Stieb. If you’re picking the most historically important pitcher of his generation, it’s Jack Morris. If you’re picking a Hall of Famer, it’s Morris.

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Dave Stieb and Jack Morris were teammates in 1992 with the Blue Jays. This photo was taken during spring training in Dunedin, Florida.

WAR Games

Finally, there is this. You may have noticed that I referred more than once to the “Baseball Reference version of WAR,” which I’ll refer to as bWAR. If you like to study baseball statistics, you know that there are others, the versions calculated by FanGraphs (fWAR) and Baseball Prospectus (WARP). I’m going to skip Baseball Prospectus; for the time being, it seems that they’re working on their formulas because you get different results in different sections of the site.

If you’re not really into WAR, I won’t fault you for being exhausted by this fairly long piece and skipping to the end.

So, let’s just look at Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Putting it as simply as possible, Baseball Reference calculates a pitcher’s bWAR by starting with their total runs allowed per 9 innings. FanGraphs uses Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP), which focuses on the three things over which the pitcher has unique control: strikeouts, walks and home runs allowed. Both versions then make adjustments based on the league in which the pitcher toils, the ballparks, and other factors. The Baseball Reference version uses the quality of a pitcher’s team’s defense to add to or subtract from their WAR.

FanGraphs also has a “Value” section on each player’s card in which they break down various aspects that go into pitcher’s WAR. They also show RA-9 WAR (which is the most similar to bWAR). Additionally, they break down the “Wins” by two additional factors, BIP (Balls in Play) and LOB (Left on Base). The purpose here is to show which pitchers have unusually high or low BABIPs (batting average on balls in play) and which pitchers did a good or bad job stranding runner on base. 

Anyway, the purpose of this comparison is to identify what the FIP-based FanGraphs version of WAR says regarding the five best seasons of Dave Stieb’s career and his 11-year peak.

• 1982: 4.8 fWAR (4th in A.L., behind Len Barker, Hoyt and Floyd Bannister)
• 1983: 5.1 fWAR (4th in A.L., behind Morris, Dave Righetti and Hoyt)
• 1984: 5.6 fWAR (2nd in A.L., behind Mike Witt)
• 1985: 4.5 fWAR (10th in A.L., behind Blyleven, Saberhagen, Mike Moore, Guidry, Walt Terrell, Witt, Morris, Oil Can Boyd and Danny Jackson)
• 1990: 4.3 fWAR (8th in A.L., behind Clemens, Hanson, Ryan, Bobby Witt, Stewart, Finley and Langston)

Whoa! In this version of WAR, Stieb did not lead the league for three straight seasons. He never led the league.

What about if we take the best 4 years (1982-85) or 11 years (1980-90)? First of all, during his very best, from 1982-85, Stieb’s 20.0 fWAR does in fact lead the A.L. but is tied for second (with Steve Carlton) in all of MLB behind Valenzuela (20.9).

As for the full 11 years in which he leads all of MLB in bWAR, Stieb is 4th best in fWAR, barely above three contemporaries.

fWAR leaders (1980-90):

1. Nolan Ryan: 48.8
2. Roger Clemens: 43.7
3. Dwight Gooden: 41.1
4. Dave Stieb: 40.7
5. Jack Morris: 39.8
6. Bert Blyleven: 39.3
7. Fernando Valenzuela: 38.0

Notice how close Morris is to Stieb in the FanGraphs version of WAR, just for these 11 seasons. For the entirety of their careers, FanGraphs gives Morris 55.8 fWAR compared to Stieb’s 43.8, virtually the opposite of Stieb’s 56.4 bWAR and Morris’ 43.4 bWAR.

Let’s be honest: central to the “Stieb is better than Morris” argument is that Stieb’s WAR was superior and thus he was a better pitcher. There is a war between Baseball Reference and FanGraphs about whether that statement is true.

Conclusion

As somebody who believes in a “big Hall,” I would not have a problem with Dave Stieb being in the Hall of Fame. He happened to debut during an unusually weak period in baseball history of starting pitches who were able to have long careers. That he might have been the best pitcher for an 11-year period is compelling. However, the fact that the two main sabermetric sites disagree on the all-encompassing statistic measuring that excellence gives one pause.

So, in conclusion, while he’s is a compelling candidate, I don’t see Stieb as a top priority for the next “Modern Baseball” Committee, which will convene this fall to consider players whose primary impact was from 1970-87. Stieb doesn’t have the hardware that a “peak performance” career candidate should have. Yes, he may have deserved one or two Cy Youngs but that’s debatable.

Additionally, as we’ve seen, Stieb doesn’t have a post-season record to brag about. If I were to create a bucket of “short career, high peak” pitchers from Stieb’s generation, I’d look first at David Cone, Bret Saberhagen, and Orel Hershiser for Hall of Fame consideration, although those three had careers that would put them on the 2022 “Today’s Game” ballot, not the one coming up this fall.

As for the potential nominees for the Modern Baseball ballot for the Hall of Fame class of 2020, among pitchers I would put him behind 286-game winner Tommy John and Cuba’s finest, Luis Tiant, both of whom are significantly older and running out of time to get elected while still alive. Then there’s catcher Ted Simmons, who came one vote short of the Hall in 2018.

Stieb will also competing for ballot space against 2018 candidates Marvin Miller, Dale Murphy, Steve Garvey, Don Mattingly, and Dave Parker along with other terrific players who might be considered for the 10 slots on the ballot (Lou Whitaker, Bobby Grich, Keith Hernandez, Thurman Munson, Graig Nettles, Dwight Evans).

If you’ve made it this far you know that Dave Stieb was an excellent pitcher and might be worthy of the Hall of Fame some day, especially if the science of sabermetrics merges and unanimously anoints him as “best from 1980-90.” However, in my view, he is not one of the four best candidates eligible in this cycle.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Chris Bodig