Cooperstown Cred 2026 Virtual Ballot

Tonight at 6:00 p.m. ET, live on the MLB Network and mlb.com, Josh Rawitch, the President of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2026 Hall of Fame voting from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America). Based on the early reported voting (tallied on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame vote tracker), there will be either one or two new inductees to Cooperstown. That new member (or members) will join Jeff Kent on stage this summer in Cooperstown, NY. Kent was elected by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee last month.

Based on the tracker, Carlos Beltran, one of the best switch-hitting center fielders in baseball history, will be elected to the Hall of Fame. From the first 234 votes reported on Thibodaux’s tracker, Beltran is sitting at 89.7% in an election requiring 75% of the vote to earn a plaque in Cooperstown.

Beltran, a nine-time All-Star and one of the most prolific postseason hitters of all-time, would probably already be in the Hall of Fame if not for his role in the Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal when the team won the 2017 World Series. Beltran debuted on the BBWAA ballot in 2023 and earned just 46.5% of the vote. He has steadily improved his vote share in the last couple of years, getting 70.3% one year ago. With a few exceptions, players who get over 70% of the BBWAA cross the finish line on the next ballot.

The biggest question mark about this year’s ballot is whether another centerfielder, Andruw Jones, will be on stage with Kent and Beltran this summer. Jones, a ten-time Gold Glove winner, debuted on the BBWAA ballot in 2018 and got just 7.3% of the vote. Slowly but surely, Jones, now on the ballot for the ninth time, has increased his vote share year after year and earned 66.2% of the vote one year ago. He currently has a 83.5% vote share, according to Thibodaux’s tracker. That’s well above the 75% minimum needed for the Hall of Fame, but the tracker almost always overestimates a player’s final total, so it’s possible he’ll fall just short.

What will also be interesting is to see how much of an increase in vote share is accorded to some of the other top players on the ballot. In particular, pitchers Felix Hernandez and Andy Pettitte have seen their vote support surge.

Here are the current tracking results, according to Thibodaux and his ace tracker team of Anthony Calamis and Adam Dore.

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Note: This graphic will be updated periodically until the announcement at 6 p.m. ET on Tuesday. The original text of the article was published at 11:30 a.m. PT on Saturday, 1/17, and updated at 10:15 a.m. PT on Tuesday, 1/20. Because the graphic is being updated frequently, the numbers may not exactly match the text in the article.

Not shown on this graphic are ten other first-time candidates who have received either two votes, one vote, or no votes: Edwin Encarnacion (2 votes), Hunter Pence (1), Shin-Soo Choo (1), Nick Markakis (1), Rick Porcello (1), Matt Kemp, Alex Gordon, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, and Gio Gonzalez.

None of these ten candidates will be back on the 2027 ballot, since they will fall short of the 5% required to appear on future ballots. Ryan Braun, the longtime leftfielder for the Milwaukee Brewers, will also fall short of the 5% and will not appear on future ballots.

Big Hall vs Small Hall

Although I have written more about Hall of Famers and candidates than only a handful of BBWAA voters, I am not a member of the BBWAA and thereby ineligible to vote for candidates for the Hall of Fame. That’s fine. I’m in good company, with vastly more worthy luminaries than I am who also can’t vote for the Hall of Fame. If Bill James, Bob Costas, and Brian Kenny can’t vote for the Hall of Fame candidates, who am I to complain?

With that self-indulgent comment out of the way, in this piece, I will reveal my “virtual” ballot that I would have cast were I an actual voter. BBWAA members often identify themselves as “Big Hall” or “Small Hall” voters. The “Big Hall” voters usually fill out their ballots with ten “yes” votes, the maximum allowed by the Hall of Fame. “Small Hall” voters generally vote for only the best of the best. Of the first 234 voters to reveal their ballots to Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, 65 writers checked ten names, with 57 more checking seven, eight, or nine names.

On the other end of the scale, four writers returned “blank” ballots, with no names checked. Five writers checked only one name, with 44 others checking only two or three names. These are the “Small Hall” voters.

In fairness to the “Small Hall” voters, this BBWAA ballot is relatively weak in comparison to some of the star-studded ballots of the past fifteen years. The best two players on the ballot (Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez) were suspended for the use of PEDs (performance-enhancing drugs); that’s a red line for more than 50% of the BBWAA voters, putting the Hall of Fame out of reach for them.

If I were a BBWAA member, I would have voted for the maximum of ten candidates for the Hall of Fame, but I only consider one of them (Beltran) a no-brainer. Of my other nine selections, I acknowledge that they are borderline candidates with significant flaws in their Cooperstown credentials.

So, why do I go with ten? Why am I a “big Hall” voter? The answer is simple. I believe in recognizing today’s players in equal proportion to players from the first 80 years of baseball history. The idea that the Hall of Fame would be home only to the true elites ended in 1945 and 1946, when the “Old Timers Committee” inducted 19 players, one manager, and one pioneer/executive.

From 1936 to 1944, 28 men were inducted into the Hall of Fame; 21 more were added in just those two years. The Small Hall instantly became a Big Hall. Joe Posnanski, one of the few BBWAA writers who has spilled more proverbial ink on Hall of Fame cases than I have, explained this history of how this happened on his blog today.

In the year 1901, the first year of the modern game, there were 27 players in the American League or National League who would eventually make the Hall of Fame. In the year 2001, 100 years later, 37 future Hall of Famers appeared in Major League Baseball. When you consider that there were just 16 teams in 1901 and 30 in 2001, that is not proportional. It would take 13 more Hall of Famers from the year 2001 to have proportional representation to 1901.

The Big Hall gets bigger as you scroll through the early years of the 20th century. In 1925, there were 51 future Hall of Famers who appeared on one of the 16 teams in the A.L. and N.L. There are only 33 Hall of Famers who appeared for one of the 30 teams that made up Major League Baseball in 2000, 75 years later.

Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement) as a guide to look at every MLB player who debuted in 1946 or earlier (before Jackie Robinson broke the color line), there are a grand total of eight players who have a career WAR of 60 or above who are not in the Hall of Fame. For players who debuted in 1947 or later, there are 47 players with a 60+ career WAR who are not in the Hall of Fame.

To widen the lens, there are 26 players who debuted in 1946 or earlier with a WAR of 50 or above who are not in the Hall. There are 99 players who debuted in 1947 or later with a 50+ WAR who are not in the Hall. Yes, there are some among those 99 players who are not yet eligible, still active, or linked to PEDs, but there are a great many (including nine on the current ballot) who are not in any of those categories.

Am I suggesting that every player with a WAR of 60 or higher should be in the Hall of Fame? No, I’m not. But there are 73 players with a WAR of under 60 who are in the Hall, and 50 players with a WAR under 50 who have plaques in Cooperstown. So, in my not-so-humble opinion, it’s perfectly appropriate to honor players whose careers were cut short due to injury or ineffectiveness but were among the best in the game when they were at their best.

Anyway, with the preamble complete, here are my ten selections for my 2026 virtual ballot. I’ve listed them in order of my personal preference.

1. Carlos Beltran – CF (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (70.3% in 2025)

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 4th most RBI all-time for center fielders (behind Cobb, Mays, Griffey)
• 4th most HR all-time for switch-hitters (behind Mantle, Murray, and Chipper Jones)
• 3rd most RBI all-time for switch-hitters (behind Murray and Jones)
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

If you just look at the long list of accomplishments outlined above, it’s pretty clear that Carlos Beltran has a resume that is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown. When it comes to the big power statistics (HR and RBI), he’s in some very impressive company as one of the best center fielders and switch-hitters of all time.

Beltran could do it all as the ultimate five-tool player. A switch-hitter equally proficient from both sides of the plate, Beltran could hit (119 career OPS+), hit with power (435 HR), run (312 career steals), field (3 Gold Gloves), and throw (top 5 in outfield assists five times in his career). Besides having game-changing speed, Beltran stole bases with maximum efficiency. His career 86.4% stolen base success rate is the best in Major League Baseball history for players with at least 250 steals.

Despite this, Beltran did not make the Hall of Fame in his first three turns on the ballot. He’s paid a significant penalty with the writers for his role in the Astros sign-stealing scandal in 2017. That is the season in which Beltran finally won a World Series championship. Sadly, that title will be forever tainted by the scandal.

Personally, I think Beltran has paid the price already. He lost a plum job as the manager of the New York Mets because of his role in the scandal. Noting that the 2017 Astros manager A.J. Hinch and bench coach Alex Cora are managing in the majors today, Bob Nightengale put it this way in USA Today: “Here we are, six years later, and the only man still being penalized by the scandal is Beltran. It is not only brutally unfair but egregiously cruel. Enough already.”

This is the year it will happen. Carlos Beltran will be the headliner for the BBWAA Class of 2026.

For more on Beltran’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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3. Dustin Pedroia – 2B (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (11.9% in 2025)

• Boston Red Sox (2006-2018)
• Career: .299 BA, .365 OBP, .439 SLG, 140 HR, 725 RBI, 1,805 Hits
• Career: 113 OPS+, 51.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 4-time All-Star
• 2008 A.L. MVP (.326 BA, 17 HR, 83 RBI, 118 Runs, 213 Hits, 54 doubles)
• Member of the 2007 and 2013 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

Sometimes, a player is a Hall of Famer, even if the numbers aren’t quite there. To me, Dustin Pedroia is that guy. A mighty mite, generously listed at 5’9″ on Baseball Reference, Pedroia gave it his all 100% of the time. His career was shortened severely because of a hard (dirty?) slide by Manny Machado that ultimately led to cartilage restoration surgery that Pedroia later regretted.

Pedroia was an excellent hitter for a second baseman and a superb defensive player. His career had great significance as a Rookie of the Year, MVP, and member of three Red Sox championship squads.

Here’s a nugget from Jayson Stark in The Athletic: “Until that slide, Pedroia had played 11 full seasons — and had won a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP trophy, four Gold Gloves and two World Series. Digest that for a moment. Not to imply that that’s slightly amazing, but … only two players in history can say they did all those things (or more). One is Pedroia. The other? Johnny Bench.”

I will confess that there may be some Red Sox fan bias in my belief that Pedroia belongs in the Hall. So be it. Throughout the history of the Hall of Fame, local beat writers have often voted for a player on their “beat” in higher numbers than writers from other cities. When you watch a player play every day (in my case, I watched hundreds of Red Sox games), you gain a better appreciation of what kind of player they are.

Based on the early voting returns from 2025 and on the Thibodaux Hall of Fame tracker, it seems unlikely that Pedroia will ever make the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA, but it would not surprise me if a future version of the Era Committee puts him into Cooperstown.

As a player identified with one city, Pedroia feels very much like Tony Oliva or Gil Hodges, two Hall of Famers elected in the last few years, decades after their careers ended. I hope Pedey doesn’t have to wait decades, but I feel like he’ll be there eventually.

For more on Dustin Pedroia’s career and Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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4. Bobby Abreu – RF (7th year on the BBWAA ballot) (19.5% in 2024)

• Astros (1996-97), Phillies (1998-2006), Yankees (2006-08), Angels (2009-2012), Dodgers (2012), Mets (2014)
• Career: .291 BA, .395 OBP, 288 HR, 1,363 RBI, 2,470 Hits, 400 SB,
• Career: 128 OPS+, 60.2 WAR
• Career: 1,476 walks (20th most in Major League Baseball history)
• 2-time All-Star, 2004 Silver Slugger, 2005 Gold Glove Award winner

Bobby Abreu is on the BBWAA ballot for the seventh time in 2026 and is the ultimate sneaky-good candidate. Abreu had power and surprising speed for a big man, listed at 220 pounds on his Baseball-Reference profile.

Abreu was durable; he’s the only player other than Willie Mays in the history of baseball to play in 150 or more games for 13 consecutive seasons (with the caveat that there are others who would have accomplished that feat if not for player strikes).

Abreu is also one of 14 players to achieve six different seasons with 100 walks and 100 runs scored. The other 13 are all in the Hall of Fame except for Barry Bonds. Finally, Abreu is one of 7 players with at least 250 HR and 350 SB, with Bonds, Derek Jeter, Rickey Henderson, Craig Biggio, Joe Morgan, and Bobby Bonds, Barry’s father.

All of those “clubs” in which Abreu is a member give him a legitimate case for the Hall, but, in fairness, he’s the weakest member of the groups in which I’ve listed him (with the exception of Bobby Bonds).

I have been off the fence about whether he crosses the bar for a while now, although most members of the BBWAA think that he doesn’t. Abreu is tracking at nearly 40% of the vote, which is a significant increase over his final 2025 vote total but is still at a level that does not portend a massive surge of support in the upcoming years.

For more on why I am off the Abreu fence and in favor of his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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The next three players on my ballot are starting pitchers. They all have strong points in favor of the Hall of Fame, but also have significant flaws to their cases. After CC Sabathia’s induction last summer, in the next three to eight years, there will be four obvious Hall of Fame starters: Zack Greinke (eligible in 2029), Clayton Kershaw (eligible in 2031), and the still-active Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

After that esteemed quartet, there are no obvious candidates, either recently retired or still active. I believe that we can no longer hold starting pitchers to the standards of the 20th century. We need to acknowledge that 200 wins is the new 300 and also recognize brilliant peak performance from the hurlers who flamed out early due to overuse or injury.

Honestly, I’m not fully sold on any of these three hurlers, but they all have strong points in favor.

So, let’s start with the pitcher with the fifth most wins in the modern era (1901 and beyond) who is not in the Hall.

5. Andy Pettitte – SP (8th year on the BBWAA ballot) (27.9% in 2025)

• Yankees (1995-2003, ’07-’13), Astros (2004-06)
• Career: 256-153 (.626 WL%), 3.85 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.7 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• Career postseason: 19-11, 3.81 ERA in 44 starts (won 5 championships)
• 3-time All-Star

Andy Pettitte is a guy who looked like a future Hall of Famer when watching him in the first three seasons of his career. In his sophomore campaign (1996), he was a 21-game winner (finishing 2nd in the Cy Young voting) and a member of the World Champion New York Yankees. In 1997, the tall left-hander went 18-7 with a 2.88 ERA (good enough for a 156 ERA+ and 8.4 WAR).

The fact is, however, after 1997, Pettitte only had one season in which he was in the top 30 of all starting pitchers in WAR. That one season was 2005, with the Astros, when he went 17-9 with a 2.39 ERA (177 ERA+, 6.8 WAR). The timing of that great campaign was perfect; he helped Houston make the playoffs (barely) as the Wild Card team. The Astros subsequently won their first-ever pennant.

Because the Yankees and Astros made the playoffs 14 times in his 18 MLB campaigns, Pettitte is the all-time postseason leader in games started (44) and, thus, also leads in wins (19) and innings (276.2). His playoff ERA (3.81) mirrors almost precisely his regular-season ERA (3.85).

I’m not crazy about his case, but I am comfortable that Pettitte belongs in the Hall of Fame.

Still, if Pettitte had spent 16 years of his career with the Kansas City Royals instead of the New York Yankees, he wouldn’t be anywhere close to Cooperstown. A “yes” for Pettitte is an acknowledgment that who gets into Cooperstown isn’t always fair and that playing for great teams helps.

Anyway, Pettitte has made big gains in the voting this year, getting a net of 36 “flips” from writers who voted “no” a year ago and “yes” this year.

For more on Pettitte’s complicated Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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6. Felix Hernandez – SP (2nd year on the BBWAA ballot) (20.6% in 2025)

• Seattle Mariners (2005-2019)
• Career: 169-136 (.554), 3.42 ERA in 2,729.2 IP
• Career: 117 ERA+, 50.2 WAR
• 2010 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (13-12, 2.27 ERA, 174 ERA+)
• 6-time All-Star
• Led the A.L. in ERA twice (2010, 2014)

169 career victories. Until recently, I felt that the paltry total of career victories would preclude Felix Hernandez from making it to the Hall of Fame. However, on the Ryan Thibodaux Hall of Fame tracker, Hernandez is sitting at an impressive 56.0%, having earned a net of 48 flips from “no” to “yes” and a 75% tally from first-time voters.

At his best, King Felix was the best pitcher in baseball.

Hernandez’s low win total is attributable to his lack of career starts (his career was over at 33 years of age) but also due to the fact that he toiled on a second-division team, one that had the sixth-worst winning percentage (.469) during his 15 years with the team.

During those fifteen seasons, by winning percentage, Hernandez outperformed the other Seattle pitchers by nearly 100 points (.554 WL% compared to .456 for the rest of the staff). During his career, the M’s gave King Felix 4.0 runs of support per game, compared to the league average of 4.5.

From 2005-15, Hernandez had the highest WAR among all pitchers in Major League Baseball and the most strikeouts. He has a legitimate peak performance case for Cooperstown.

Oh, but those 169 wins. There are only three Hall of Famers with fewer: Sandy Koufax, Addie Joss, and Dizzy Dean. King Felix was dominant during his era of excellence, but not at the level of Koufax, Joss, and Dean.

Still, based on the momentum he is showing this year on the vote tracker, I think it’s likely that King Felix will have a plaque in Cooperstown within a few years.

For more on the career and Hall of Fame case for and against Felix Hernandez, please click here.

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7. Mark Buehrle – SP (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (11.4% in 2025)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

Mark Buehrle was the kind of pitcher who would make an older fan remind you of baseball in a bygone era. He pitched to contact, and he worked fast. Like Bobby Abreu, he was also unusually durable, authoring 14 straight seasons of at least 200 innings pitched.

If the big left-hander had not chosen to retire at the age of 36, he might have put up numbers that would have made him a 21st-century version of Don Sutton.

I decided to put Buehrle on my virtual ballot three years ago for the reason I alluded to earlier: starting pitchers are going to need to be evaluated differently for the 21st century than the standards in place for the hurlers of the 20th century. The players on all teams in Major League Baseball are of the mindset today to grind out long at bats and boost their opponents’ pitch counts.

200-inning seasons are becoming a rarity. Buehrle tossed 200 innings in 14 consecutive seasons. In the 21st century, only Justin Verlander (12 seasons) and James Shields (10) have logged as many as 10 campaigns with 200+ IP. From 2021 to 2024, a grand total of 18 pitchers managed to reach 200 innings, with only five managing the feat more than once.

Based on the current tracker numbers, Buehrle is not close to being in danger of falling off the 2026 ballot. He deserves a full ten-year look on the BBWAA ballot. As the years pass and starting pitchers put up fewer and fewer innings, his record of durability, 214 wins, and 3,283.1 career innings will look better and better.

For a recap of Buehrle’s career and why I checked his name for the Hall of Fame, please click here.

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8. David Wright — 3B (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (8.1% in 2024)

• New York Mets (2004-16)
• Career: .296 BA, .376 OBP, .491 SLG, 242 HR, 970 RBI
• Career: 133 OPS+, 49.2 WAR
• 7-time N.L. All-Star
• Two-time N.L. Gold Glove Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• Two-time N.L. Silver Slugger Award winner (2007 & 2008)
• 4 times in the Top 10 of MVP voting

Like Dustin Pedroia and Felix Hernandez, David Wright spent his entire career with one team, the New York Mets, and is the best player in the history of the franchise who never wore another uniform. Wright wasn’t technically a hometown hero, but he was a Mets fan since his youth, having grown up in Norfolk, Virginia, home of the Mets’ longtime AAA affiliate, the Tidewater Tides.

For the first eight full seasons of his career (2005-12), Wright was one of the top players in baseball; he hit .301, averaged 24 HR with 97 RBI, and posted a 136 OPS+ and 39.2 WAR. He was on his way to the Hall of Fame. Unfortunately, injuries limited Wright to 112 games in 2013 and 134 in 2014, and then he only managed to appear in 77 games from 2015 to 2018.

The David Wright Hall of Fame case is one that combines peak performance and “what might have been.” It’s quite similar to the case of another one-team player, Kirby Puckett of the Minnesota Twins. Puckett’s career ended abruptly in 1996 due to retina damage in his right eye, and he was a first-ballot inductee in 2001. The difference, of course, is that Puckett hit .318, won two World Series titles, made 10 All-Star teams, and won 6 Gold Gloves.

Anyway, there are many players in the Hall of Fame who have career statistics that are of lesser quality than Wright’s. His peak performance case is a legitimate one. Add in his leadership role in the World Baseball Classic (his nickname is “Captain America”), and you have a player who would be a credit to the Hall of Fame. I’ll admit, I’m not really sold yet, but I’d like to see how the standards of peak performance evolve in the future of voting for the Hall of Fame.

I will also admit that I am a bit biased here as a longtime Mets fan, but I feel that Wright deserves a full ten years on the ballot.

For more on David Wright’s career with the Mets, please click here.

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9. Chase Utley — 2B (3rd year on the BBWAA ballot) (39.8% in 2025)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Member of the 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit five home runs in the 2009 World Series

Chase Utley was a gamer, a winner, a team leader, and a complete player. He could hit, hit with power, field brilliantly, and run with remarkable efficiency. He had one of the highest baseball IQs in the game.

To me, Utley is a questionable Hall of Fame candidate because, although he was an excellent hitter, the crux of his Cooperstown candidacy rests in his off-the-charts defensive metrics. Like David Wright, Utley had an excellent peak, although his was shorter (and better). From 2005-09, Utley slashed .301/.388/.535 (135 OPS+) while averaging 29 HR, 101 RBI, 111 Runs, and a whopping 7.9 WAR per season.

But Utley struggled to stay on the field in most of his last nine seasons, which is why his counting stats are underwhelming. 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, and 1,885 Hits do not scream “Hall of Fame.”

My main reason for being a Utley skeptic for the Hall of Fame is that his chief credential (his high WAR) is based on those otherworldly defensive metrics, which were not matched with any Gold Gloves.

From 2005 to 2010, Utley was credited with being 119 runs above average defensively. That six-year stretch is better than the entire careers of all but 11 second basemen in the history of baseball. That tells me that the formula might be off.

Still, Utley was a terrific all-around player, so I’ve decided to join the party that he’s worth a “yes” for the Hall of Fame.

For more on Utley’s Hall of Fame case and why I don’t fully trust his defensive metrics, please click here.

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10. Jimmy Rollins (SS) (5th year on the BBWAA ballot) (23.9% in 2025)

• Phillies (2000-14), Dodgers (2015), White Sox (2016)
• Career: .264 BA, 231 HR, 936 RBI, 2,455 Hits
• Career: 470 SB, 105 CS (81.7%)
• Career: 95 OPS+, 47.6 WAR
• 2007 N.L. MVP (.296 BA, 30 HR, 94 RBI, 20 triples, 139 Runs, 41 SB)
• 3-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner

For those who believe in WAR, Jimmy Rollins seems like a weak candidate, based on his 47.6 WAR. That low WAR is based on the fact that he only hit .264 in his career with a .324 OBP, resulting in a 95 OPS+.

Forgetting that for a moment, Rollins has an otherwise sneaky-strong case. As a player who combined extra-base power with speed, he’s the only shortstop in the history of baseball to hit 200 home runs, leg out 100 triples, hit over 500 doubles, and steal at least 400 bases.

What I especially like about Rollins is that the guy was a winner and stayed on the field. Rollins played in 137 games or more in 14 of his 17 MLB seasons, with 10 seasons with 150+ games.

The low WAR is worrisome, but 25 years into the 21st century, Rollins has the fourth-highest WAR for shortstops for the century, behind Francisco Lindor, Marcus Semien, and barely behind Derek Jeter. There are some other active shortstops who seem like they’ll surpass him, but there are chinks in the armor for all of them.

Rollins is doing well enough on the Thibodaux tracker that he should last on the BBWAA ballot for the full ten years.

Personally, I didn’t include Rollins on my last four virtual ballots, but this ballot is weaker than previous editions, so I had room to include him. To me, if Chase Utley makes the Hall of Fame, Jimmy Rollins should as well.

If you gave me the ultimate power, a “yes” or “no” vote for Rollins for all eternity, I’d say “yes.”

For more on Jimmy Rollins’ career and Cooperstown credentials, please click here.

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Other Strong Hall of Fame Candidates

The BBWAA limits the writers to ten selections each. Some writers (those who prefer a “small Hall”) feel like that’s far more than is needed. Others (those in favor of a “big Hall”) would like to see no limit. When the ballot started getting flooded with candidates linked to Performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs), the ballot was clogged with well more than ten quality candidates for several voting cycles in a row.

For that reason, many quality candidates such as Johan Santana, Jim Edmonds, Kenny Lofton, Carlos Delgado, Lance Berkman, and Jorge Posada were booted off future ballots by getting squeezed by the “rule of 10,” causing them to get lower than the required 5% to stick around for future votes.

On this ballot, if I had an unlimited number of votes, I would choose 13 players. I’ll start with a longtime teammate of Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins, pitcher Cole Hamels. Honestly, I don’t see “Hall of Famer” when I look at Hamels’ career, but his case is strong enough that it deserves a multi-year examination.

11. Cole Hamels — SP (1st Year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Phillies (2006-15), Rangers (2015-18), Cubs (2018-19), Braves (2020)
• Career: 163-122 (.572 WL%), 3.43 ERA
• Career: 123 ERA+, 57.9 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• Finished in the top 10 of the N.L. Cy Young Award voting four times
• 2008 postseason: 4-0, 1.80 ERA (NLCS and World Series MVP)

With 163 wins and a 3.43 career ERA, Cole Hamels’ career statistics look remarkably similar to those of Felix Hernandez.

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So, why do I have King Felix as the #6 player on my virtual ballot while Hamels misses the cut? The simple answer is that Hernandez was the best pitcher of his era. From 2005-15, King Felix had the highest WAR, the most strikeouts, and the lowest ERA for pitchers with at least 1,800 innings pitched. Additionally, Hernandez is a Cy Young Award winner and a two-time runner-up. Hamels never finished in the top three of his league’s Cy Young votes.

Still, Hamels was one of the top pitchers in the game for over a decade, so, in an era where 200 wins are becoming rare, he’s worth a long look.

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Next, a look at a pair of sluggers who would have been first-ballot Hall of Famers if not for their documented links to PEDs, Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez.

If it were up to me, I would vote for most of the PED guys to make the Hall of Fame. A-Rod and Manny were dumb to take PEDs, but they didn’t need to take them to be two of the greatest hitters of their generation. They were punished by losing time due to suspension. To me, that’s punishment enough.

However, they are not going to make the Hall of Fame for decades, if ever. Last December, and also in December 2022, the Era Committee had the opportunity to elect Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens. Not only were they not elected on either vote, but they also received so few votes that the Hall didn’t reveal the exact totals. The Hall of Fame (and most living Hall of Famers) do not want the PED players in their club.

Since it’s not going to happen, to me, a vote for A-Rod or Manny is a wasted vote. I would rather support players who have a chance to make it to Cooperstown eventually, even if they have long-shot cases.

11. Alex Rodriguez (SS/3B) (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (37.1% in 2025)

• Mariners (1994-2000), Rangers (2001-03), Yankees (2004-2016)
• Career: .295 BA, .696 HR, 2,086 RBI, 3,115 Hits
• Career: 140 OPS+, 117.5 WAR
• One of 3 players with 650 HR, 2000 RBI, and 3000 Hits (Aaron, Pujols)
• 4th on all-time lists for HR and RBI
• 3-time American League MVP (2003, ’05, ’07), with three other top 3 finishes
• 14-time All-Star, 2-time Gold Glove Winner, 10-time Silver Slugger

As you can see, strictly by the numbers, Alex Rodriguez was an all-time great. From his first full season in 1996 (.358 BA, 36 HR, 123 RBI) to his 2nd to last in 2015 (33 HR, 86 RBI), A-Rod was a fearsome presence in the batter’s box.

Rodriguez admitted to using PEDs with the Rangers in 2001-03 and was suspended by MLB for a year due to the Biogenesis scandal. There are a lot of writers who, when it comes to PEDs, draw a line between the “no-testing” era before 2005 and the years since then, when all players have been tested frequently. It’s why David Ortiz made it into the Hall of Fame and A-Rod will not. Ortiz was never suspended, while Rodriguez missed the entire 2014 season.

For more on A-Rod’s career and the conundrum about his Cooperstown candidacy, please click here.

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12. Manny Ramirez  – OF (10th year on the BBWAA ballot) (34.3% in 2025)

• Indians (1993-2000), Red Sox (2001-08), Dodgers (2008-10), White Sox (2010), Rays (2011)
• Career: .312 BA, 555 HR, 1,831 RBI, 2,574 Hits
• Career: 154 OPS+, 69.3 WAR
• 12-time All-Star, 9-time Silver Slugger
• Career postseason: 29 HR, 78 RBI, .937 OPS (his 29 HR are the most in postseason history)

If it were based solely on his performance, of course, Manny Ramirez would be a Hall of Famer. Manny could flat-out hit and hit in the clutch. Besides having the most career postseason home runs in the history of baseball, he has the 3rd most regular-season grand slams (behind Lou Gehrig and A-Rod).

But I’m withholding my virtual ballot vote for Manny this year for the reasons stated above.

This will be Manny’s last year on the BBWAA ballot, having exhausted his ten years of eligibility. He’ll next be eligible for the Contemporary Player Era Committee ballot in December 2028. Given that previous committees have shut out Bonds, Clemens, Gary Sheffield, Rafael Palmeiro, and Mark McGwire, Manny will not make it to Cooperstown through that process either.

For more on Manny’s career, please click here.

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The next player on the list is never going to make the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA, but it’s not inconceivable that a future version of the Era Committee will smile upon his candidacy.

Torii Hunter – CF (6th year on the BBWAA ballot) (5.1% in 2025)

• Twins (1997-2007, 2015), Angels (2008-12), Tigers (2013-14)
• Career: .277 BA, 353 HR, 1,391 RBI, 2,452 Hits,
• Career: 110 OPS+, 50.7 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 9-time Gold Glove Award Winner

Torii Hunter was fun to watch. He was one of his generation’s most prolific “thieves.” I’m not talking about his stolen base prowess (he stole 199 bases but was caught 99 times). I’m talking about his propensity to rob opposing batters of home runs by climbing or leaping over the outfield wall (hence his nickname “Spider-Man”).

As a center fielder, his 353 HR and 9 Gold Gloves present a similar case to Andruw Jones, but he is going nowhere in the voting, while Jones is surging because Hunter’s career WAR is 50.7, while Jones’s is 62.7.

Analytics, however, are in the eye of the beholder (or the creator of the formula). On the Bill James “Win Shares” list, Hunter actually fares better, with 277 Win Shares compared to 276 for Jones.

Hunter is once again on the BBWAA ballot bubble, currently at 6.4% on the Ryan Thibodaux Hall of Fame tracker. Players need at least 5% to return for the next year’s ballot.

For more on Hunter’s career and Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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The following two players are returning to the ballot and will be back in 2027, but I don’t see any time that I would ever support their candidacies for Cooperstown, and it’s not because of their off-field travails.

Omar Vizquel – SS (9th year on the BBWAA ballot) (17.8% in 2025)

• Mariners (1989-93), Indians (1994-2004), Giants (2005-08), Rangers (2009), White Sox (2010-11), Blue Jays (2012)
• Career: .272 BA, 80 HR, 951 RBI, 2,877 Hits
• Career: 82 OPS+, 45.6 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 11-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Highest fielding % of all-time for shortstops (min. 1,000 games)

No player in the history of the BBWAA voting has seen their voting support evaporate more than Omar Vizquel’s. Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote in 2020, his 3rd year on the ballot. He seemed on a glide path to eventually make it to the Hall of Fame.

However, in the last few years, two troubling revelations about his personal life were revealed: a domestic violence allegation by his ex-wife and a sexual harassment allegation by a former autistic batboy that is lurid and disgusting. As a result, voters started leaving him in droves. His vote share has plummeted from 49.1% in 2021 to 23.5% in 2022, the biggest single-year drop in the modern history of the vote (since 1966). Vizquel got just 17.8% one year ago.

On the field, some people thought that Omar Vizquel was the second coming of Ozzie Smith. I don’t. He was an excellent fielder, but all of the metrics say that he wasn’t nearly as good as the 11 Gold Gloves indicate. In his 24-year career, only once did Vizquel receive even one MVP vote.

Please click here for more details on why I always felt that Omar was not worthy of the Hall of Fame.

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Francisco Rodriguez — RP (4th year on the BBWAA ballot) (10.2% in 2025)

• Angels (2003-08), Mets (2008-11), Brewers (2011-13, ’14-’15), Orioles (2013), Tigers (2016-17)
• Career: 52-53 (.495 WL%), 2.86 ERA
• Career: 437 Saves (6th most all-time), 76 Blown Saves (85% success rate)
• Career: 148 ERA+, 24.2 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd or 4th in the A.L. Cy Young voting three times with the Angels
• 2008: saved 62 games, the most for a single season in baseball history

Francisco Rodriguez currently has the sixth most saves in the history of Major League Baseball, behind Hall of Famers Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Lee Smith, Kenley Jansen, and Craig Kimbrel.

Personally, I’m not in favor of K-Rod for Cooperstown, and it’s clear that the vast majority of the BBWAA is in agreement.

Why am I dismissive of K-Rod’s Hall of Fame candidacy despite the fact that he saved 15 more games than Billy Wagner, who was elected to the Hall of Fame last year? It’s simple: Wagner was much, much better. Wagner’s career ERA (2.31) is more than a half-run better than K-Rod’s. Wagner had a much lower WHIP (0.998 to 1.155) and, although lacking the flashy nickname, a better strikeout ratio (11.9 K/9 IP compared to K-Rod’s 10.5).

The bottom line is this: Francisco Rodriguez pitched like a future Hall of Famer in Anaheim (202 saves, 2.35 ERA, 189 ERA+), but for the rest of his career, he was quite ordinary (229 saves, 3.30 ERA, 122 ERA+).

For more on Rodriguez, please click here.

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