The One-and-Dones on the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot: Part One

On Tuesday, January 20th, Josh Rawitch, the president of the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, will announce the results of the 2026 ballot by the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA). An estimated 421 writers have cast ballots, checking up to ten names out of 27 candidates for the Hall of Fame.

If any of the candidates receive at least 75% of the votes, they’ll be on stage next summer in Cooperstown, New York, as newly minted members of the Hall, joining Jeff Kent, who was elected to the Hall on December 7th by the Contemporary Baseball Player Era Committee.

15 of the 27 candidates for Cooperstown are returning to the BBWAA ballot, having fallen short of 75% one year ago. The other twelve are on the ballot for the first time. This is a relatively weak crop of first-time candidates, with no obvious Hall of Famers. The best of the bunch is pitcher Cole Hamels, a postseason star with the Philadelphia Phillies in 2008, who won 163 games with an overall bWAR (Wins Above Replacement) of 59.0. You can read a full profile of Hamels’ career and the pros and cons of his case for Cooperstown by clicking here.

This is only the second time since 2012 that the crop of first-time candidates for the BBWAA ballot has contained only one player with a career WAR of at least 50. Additionally, since 1997, this ballot has the second fewest first-time candidates with a WAR of at least 40. Besides Hamels, the other player with a 40+ WAR is Ryan Braun, the longtime left fielder for the Milwaukee Brewers.

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You can read a full profile of Braun’s career and case for the Hall of Fame by clicking here.

As for the other ten first-time candidates, this is the one and only ballot they’ll appear on (and the same is likely true for Braun as well). The Hall has a 75% rule for induction to the Hall, but it also has a 5% rule. Any candidate who appears on less than 5% of the writers’ ballots is excluded from future consideration by the BBWAA. Any player who gets between 5% and 74.9% will be back again in a year, with the exception of Manny Ramirez, who would have been a first-ballot Hall of Famer if not for his two suspensions for using performance-enhancing drugs (PEDs). Ramirez is on his 10th and final BBWAA ballot.

This piece (the first in two parts) pays tribute to ten fine players who will be “one and done”, getting under 5% of the vote, and who will not be back on the 2027 ballot. Those players are Edwin Encarnacion, Matt Kemp, Alex Gordon, Nick Markakis, Hunter Pence, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, Shin-Soo Choo, Rick Porcello, and Gio Gonzalez.

Of the first 118 reported votes on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Braun has gotten four “yes” votes (for 3.3%). Encarnaion, Pence, and Choo have each gotten one vote so far, with none for the others.

In Part One of these “one and done” profiles, we’ll start with the infielders (Encarnacion, Kendrick, Murphy) and starting pitchers (Porcello and Gonzalez). Part Two will pay tribute to the other first-time outfielders on the ballot (Kemp, Gordon, Markakis, Pence, and Choo).

Cooperstown Cred: Edwin Encarnacion (1B)

• Reds (2005-08), Blue Jays (2009-16), Indians (2017-18), Mariners (2019), Yankees (2019), White Sox (2020)
• Career: .260 BA, .350 OBP, .496 SLG, 424 HR, 1,261 RBI, 1,832 Hits
• Career: 123 OPS+, 35.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2-time A.L. All-Star

Like Ryan Braun, Edwin Encarnacion began his MLB career as a third baseman. Like Braun, he led the majors in errors at the hot corner early in his career. Unlike Braun, he remained at third for many years before finally settling in as a first baseman. And unlike Braun, who was an offensive force immediately, Encarnacion didn’t discover his best hitting stroke until he was 29 years old. Famous for his “walking the parrot” home run trot, Encarnacion clubbed 424 home runs in the major leagues and had the most home runs and most RBI in all of Major League Baseball from 2012 to 19.

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Encarnacion, a native of the Dominican Republic, split time as a high school student between his native country and Puerto Rico, where his father took a job as a college coach. As a result, he was subject to the MLB amateur draft and was selected by the Texas Rangers in the 9th round in 2000.

The right-handed hitting Encarnacion didn’t spend much time in the Rangers organization; he was traded to the Cincinnati Reds in June 2001. After several years in the minors, Encarnacion made his MLB debut with the Reds in June 2005. Encarnacion played exclusively at third base for the Reds from 2005 to July 2009, although offensive inconsistency and defensive woes caused him to be briefly sent back to AAA Louisville a couple of times over the years. In 2006, his second season, he led all Major League third sackers with 25 errors.

With the Reds, Encarnacion hit like a good defensive third baseman, even though he wasn’t suited to the position. His best offensive season was in 2008, when he hit .251 with 26 HR and 68 RBI. Although he committed 23 errors (2nd most in the N.L.), Encarnacion’s offensive output was good enough to earn him a two-year contract extension worth $7.6 million.

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The Reds soon regretted the move. The 25-year-old Encarnacion was hitting only .127 with one HR and 6 RBI through his first 19 games and then missed the next two months with a chip fracture in his left wrist.

On July 31, 2009, he was traded (along with two pitching prospects) to the Toronto Blue Jays in exchange for future Hall of Fame third baseman Scott Rolen. Ironically, the Jays really didn’t want Encarnacion, but the Reds insisted, wanting a partial offset to Rolen’s $11,625,000 salary. With the Jays, Encarnacion replaced Rolen at third base, and he remained at the hot corner until midway through the 2011 campaign.

Frustrated that Encarnacion was only hitting .200 and fielding his position like a first baseman instead of a third baseman, the Jays demoted him to AAA Las Vegas in June 2010, then designated him for assignment. Any of the other 29 teams in the majors could have claimed him, but he cleared waivers and remained in Las Vegas for a couple of weeks before returning to the big club in early July.

Encarnacion fared better in the second half of the season, hitting .269 with 12 HR and 29 RBI, but the Jays waived him in November, and he was selected by the Oakland A’s. However, the A’s and Encarnacion couldn’t work out a contract, so they released him in early December. The Jays signed him back at a reduced salary for 2011.

Now 28 years old, Encarnacion struggled again in 2011, making eight errors in 36 games at the hot corner, so the team used him at first base and DH for the balance of the campaign. Offensively, he still hadn’t found his stroke; he hit .272 with 17 HR, and 55 RBI.

In the offseason, Encarnacion connected with Robinson Cano’s personal hitting coach (Luis Mercedes), who coached him to shorten his swing and eliminate his leg kick, and the dividends were immediate. In 2012, playing mostly at first base and DH, the 29-year-old Dominican slashed .280/.384/.557 (153 OPS+) with 42 HR and 110 RBI. After earning a measly 6.5 WAR in seven seasons, Encarnacion’s 2012 campaign earned him a 5.0 WAR and an 11th-place finish in the A.L. MVP vote.

Encarnacion followed that up with seven more seasons of elite power, averaging 36 HR and 106 RBI from 2013-19, during which he also made three All-Star teams.  In 2015, with MVP Josh Donaldson and fellow Dominican Jose Bautista providing even more home run pop, the Blue Jays won their first division title since 1993. In the A.L. Division Series (against the Texas Rangers), Encarnacion hit a sixth-inning, game-tying home run off Cole Hamels in Game 5, followed the next inning by Bautista’s famous bat-flip home run off Sam Dyson to send Toronto to the ALCS. (The Jays lost in the ALCS to the Kansas City Royals.)

In 2016, Encarnacion matched his career high with 42 dingers and added a league-leading 127 RBI. The Jays returned to the playoffs as one of the Wild Card teams, and Encarnacion famously walked the parrot with a three-run walk-off home run in the bottom of the 11th off the Baltimore Orioles’ Ubaldo Jimenez. The Jays beat the Rangers again in the ALDS, with Encarnacion slashing .417/.500/.917 with two HR and four RBI. Again, the team lost in the ALCS, this time to the Cleveland Indians.

A free agent after his stellar 2016 campaign, Encarnacion and the Blue Jays couldn’t agree to terms, so the team gave up and signed Kendrys Morales instead. With no future in Toronto, Encarnacion signed a three-year, $60 million deal with Cleveland.

After two productive seasons (and with two LDS losses), Encarnacion was dealt to the Seattle Mariners in a three-way deal that sent Yandy Diaz to the Tampa Bay Rays and Carlos Santana to the Indians. Seattle was out of contention early, so he was traded again, this time to the New York Yankees, in June 2019. He spent the 2020 COVID-shortened season with the Chicago White Sox and never played again, his career over at 37 years old.

If Edwin Encarnacion had met Luis Mercedes early in his career, or if he had been on an A.L. team with the DH as an option, he might have slugged over 500 home runs and been a Hall of Famer. Alas, like most late bloomers, there wasn’t enough bloom on the second half of his career to accumulate the numbers necessary to make it to Cooperstown. Take a look at Encarnacion’s career numbers broken down by the first and second halves of his career.

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As we saw previously, Encarnacion led all of MLB with 297 home runs and 850 RBI during his eight great late-career seasons. Is that good enough for an elevator pitch for the Hall of Fame? To at least two Hall of Fame voters, the answer is “yes.” Of the first 121 votes reported on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Steve Simmons and Sadiel Lebron voted in favor.

“The Dominican third baseman and first baseman, in his first year on the ballot, may not have the flashiest résumé for a Hall of Fame candidate, but his consistency with the bat struck fear into pitchers from 2006 to 2019, posting his best home-run seasons between 2010 and 2019. In total, his 424 homers and 1,261 RBIs are testimony to that. In fact, Encarnación hit 30 or more home runs in eight consecutive seasons (2012–2019). His sin is a relatively low career batting average of .260 and a WAR of 35.3. Still, I believe the Dominican had a career similar to other sluggers who are already in the Hall of Fame.”

— Sadiel Lebron, Linkedin (12/22/2025)

Two votes out of 121 come to a 1.7% vote share, far short of the 5% required to remain on future ballots.

To these eyes, the answer to Edwin Encarnacion’s Hall of Fame candidacy is “no.” Leading the majors in HR and RBI for eight years is a big feature in his cap, but his OPS+ (138) during those years, while excellent, was only the 8th best in the majors (for players with a minimum of 4,000 plate appearances). He’s behind Mike Trout, Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera, Paul Goldschmidt, Nelson Cruz, Freddie Freeman, and J.D. Martinez. Additionally, with no significant value in the field or on the basepaths, his WAR is only the 23rd best for those eight campaigns.

If he had played in the 20th century, his 424 career home runs would have made writers look twice at his Hall of Fame case. As of 1999, 424 taters would have put him 27th on the all-time list, behind all Hall of Famers, Dave Kingman, or PED users (Mark McGwire, Barry Bonds, and Jose Canseco). Even so, with a .260 BA and only 1,832 Hits, I doubt he would have gotten much support even in a 20th-century context.

Now that we’re a quarter of the way through the 21st century, 424 HR puts him only 54th on the all-time list. Edwin Encarnacion had an impactful career, but not one that will earn him a plaque in Cooperstown or even 5% on the ballot to return for another round of voting next year.

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Cooperstown Cred: Daniel Murphy (2B)

• Mets (2008-09, 2011-15), Nationals (2016-18), Cubs (2018), Rockies (2019-20)
• Career: .296 BA, .341 OBP, .455 SLG, 138 HR, 735 RBI, 1,572 Hits
• Career: 113 OPS+, 20.8 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time N.L. Silver Slugger
• 2015 postseason: .328 BA, .391 OBP, .724 SLG, 7 HR, 11 RBI
• 2015 NLCS MVP: .529 BA, 4 HR, 6 RBI

Daniel Murphy never looked like anything resembling a future Hall of Famer until, suddenly and unexpectedly, in October 2015, he channeled his inner Reggie Jackson, leading the New York Mets to their first pennant in 15 years by hitting seven home runs in nine games.

Murphy spent most of his career at second base, and he can most charitably be described as a “good-hitting” second baseman, because he was not a defensive stalwart. Despite his uncharacteristic home run outburst in the 2015 postseason, Murphy was a doubles guy. He led all of Major League Baseball with 293 two-baggers from 2012-19.

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The left-handed-hitting Murphy, a 13th-round pick by the Mets in 2006, made his debut with the Mets in August 2008. Murphy was a natural third baseman, but started his Mets career in left field because David Wright was entrenched at the hot corner.

In his first full season (2009), Murphy played in 155 games, hitting .266 with 12 HR and 63 RBI. This was not a good Mets team; Murphy’s 12 taters led the team, which won only 70 games. He spent most of the year at first base, replacing Carlos Delgado, who underwent hip surgery that ultimately ended his career.

Murphy missed the entire 2010 campaign thanks to two knee injuries, and missed the last eight weeks of the 2011 campaign due to another knee injury.

The 27-year-old Murphy was moved to second base for the 2012 campaign and stayed mostly healthy for the next six seasons. In 2013, playing in 161 games, Murph established career-highs with 13 HR, 78 RBI, 92 Runs, and 188 Hits. He made his first All-Star team in 2014.

Murphy played multiple infield positions in 2015, filling in at 3rd base for the injured Wright while also playing at first base in 17 games. For the season, he hit .281 with a career-high 14 HR and 73 RBI, but his season WAR (1.1) was a career-low. The Mets, however, thanks to mid-season acquisition Yoenis Cespedes and a superb young rotation (Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, Noah Syndergaard), made the postseason for the first time since 2006.

Despite the middling regular season, a switch flipped for Daniel Murphy in the playoffs. I attended Games 1, 2, and 5 of the NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, and was pleasantly stunned when, in the top of the 4th inning, Murphy hit a line-drive home run into the right-field bullpen off future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw, helping the Mets to a 3-1 victory. Murph tagged Kershaw again in Game 4 in a losing effort, setting up a winner-take-all Game 5 at Dodger Stadium.

In the top of the 1st of Game 5, Murphy stroked an RBI double to left field off another future Hall of Famer (Zack Greinke) to give New York an early lead. Later, in the top of the 6th, with the score tied at 2-2, he took Greinke deep for his third home run of the series, giving the Mets a 3-2 lead, one that they would never relinquish.

The Mets matched up against the Chicago Cubs in the NLCS, with the series opening at frigid Citi Field, with temperatures in the 40s, with the wind chill making it feel like the mid-30s. Murphy’s bat, however, remained hot; he hit another solo home run in the bottom of the 1st against Jon Lester, another future 200-game winner. He also golfed a two-run home run down the line in the bottom of the 1st of Game 2, this time off Jake Arrieta, who was the N.L. Cy Young Award winner in 2015.

In Game 3, at Wrigley Field, Murphy homered for the fifth straight game, this time a solo shot in the top of the 3rd against Kyle Hendricks. Finally, in Game 4, he went 4 for 5 and homered again in the top of the 8th, off Fernando Rodney. The Mets swept the series in four games.

All told, in the first two rounds of the playoffs, Murphy became the first person in MLB history to hit a home run in six consecutive postseason games, and became the second person, after Lou Gehrig, to have a hit, a run, and an RBI in seven consecutive postseason games.

Making Murph’s home run streak even more remarkable is that he hit four of his seven postseason taters off the top three finishers in the 2015 Cy Young balloting (Arrieta, Greinke, and Kershaw, twice), off two of the top three finishers in the 2016 Cy Young vote (Lester was 2nd, Hendricks 3rd), and a relief pitcher who saved 327 games in his career. And this was a guy who had 62 career home runs in 3,619 career plate appearances, a rate of one dinger for every 58 PA. In the 2015 playoffs, it took only 39 times to the plate to hit those seven taters.

This is the list of the players with the most single-season postseason home runs of all time (as of 2015):

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In 2020, in the expanded COVID playoffs, Randy Arozarena hit 10 home runs in a postseason outburst even more unlikely than Murphy’s.

Alas for those of us who are Mets fans, as we’ve seen in the Alex Gordon profile, the Mets fell to the Kansas City Royals in a five-game World Series, and Murphy’s magic came to an end. He hit just .150 in the Fall Classic, with no home runs or RBI, after seven HR and 11 RBI in the NLDS and NLCS. Additionally, he made two errors at 2nd base, including a pivotal miscue in the 8th inning of Game 4, which helped turn a 3-2 Mets lead into a 5-3 defeat.

Murphy, a free agent in the offseason, parlayed his spectacular postseason into a three-year, $37.5 million contract with the Washington Nationals. Murphy turned out to be a bargain for the Nats. He had a career year in 2016, establishing career highs with a .347 BA, .390 OBP, .595 SLG (best in the N.L.), 25 HR, 104 RBI, 47 doubles (also best in the league), and a 4.7 WAR. He made his second All-Star team, won his first Silver Slugger, and finished 2nd in the MVP voting, behind Kris Bryant.

The Nats, who won the N.L. East, lost in five games in the NLDS to the Dodgers, but Murphy starred again, slashing .438/.545/.438 with six RBI, but with no home runs.

At age 32, Murphy had another big season in 2017: he hit .322 with 23 HR, 93 RBI, 94 Runs, while leading the league in doubles again (with 43). He was an All-Star again and won his second Silver Slugger. Murphy’s bat was quiet in the first four games of the NLDS, hitting just .125. In Game 5 (at Nationals Park), he hit a game-tying home run (off Hendricks) in the bottom of the 2nd and an RBI double in the bottom of the 6th in what was ultimately a heartbreaking losing effort.

Those two excellent campaigns in 2016 and ’17 were the end of Murphy’s productive years in baseball. He lost the first two months to the 2018 campaign to knee surgery, and was traded to the Cubs in August. Overall, he hit .299 in 91 games but with only 12 HR and 15 doubles; with poor fielding metrics, he had a 0.0 WAR for the season. He spent the final two seasons of his career as the first baseman for the Colorado Rockies. He retired in the spring of 2021, at age 35.

During his 13-year career, Murphy’s 113 OPS+ was the fifth best for all second basemen with at least 3,000 plate appearances, behind only Robinson Cano, Jose Altuve, Ben Zobrist, and Dustin Pedroia. His career batting average (.296) is the 17th best in MLB history for second basemen with at least 5,000. He had a notable career, but not a Hall of Fame career.

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Cooperstown Cred: Howie Kendrick (2B/LF)

• Angels (2006-14), Dodgers (2015-16), Phillies (2017), Nationals (2017-20)
• Career: .294 BA, .337 OBP, .430 SLG, 127 HR, 724 RBI, 1,747 Hits
• Career: 109 OPS+, 35.0 WAR
• 2011 A.L. All-Star
• Member of the 2019 World Series Champion Washington Nationals

Daniel Murphy was 30 years old when he established his national profile during the 2015 playoffs. The second baseman on the team the Mets defeated (the Los Angeles Dodgers) was 32-year-old Howie Kendrick. The veteran Kendrick, who was in his 10th MLB season after spending his first nine in Anaheim, remained a supporting character in the background. Kendrick wouldn’t have his moment in the sun until he was 36 years old, in 2019, when he helped the Washington Nationals win their first World Series championship.

Statistically, Kendrick and Murphy were very similar. In fact, Murphy is #3 on Kendrick’s “Similarity Score” list, while Kendrick is 4th on Murphy’s list. Ultimately, Kendrick was the better player, simply because he was a good defensive second baseman who could run a little bit, while Murphy was mediocre defensively.

Kendrick was the 10th round draft pick by the Anaheim Angels in the 2002 draft at age 19. He made his MLB debut in 2006, a few months before his 22nd birthday. The right-handed-hitting Kendrick didn’t play a full season as a starter until his fifth MLB campaign, in 2010. Even so, averaging just 89 games played per season from 2006 to 2009, he hit .302. His value was limited, however, because he only averaged 12.5 walks per season, so his OBP was .333, with a 100 OPS+.

Kendrick played 158 games in 2010 and then was a first-time All-Star in 2011, when, in 140 games, he hit a career best 18 HR to go with a .285 BA and 63 RBI, while making his first and only All-Star squad.

Kendrick played for three more seasons in Anaheim, finishing in 2014 with (by WAR) the best season of his 15-year MLB career. In 157 games, he slashed .293/.347/.397 with 7 HR, 75 RBI, and 85 Runs, and a 6.1 WAR (8th best for A.L. position players), thanks to the best fielding metrics of his career. Kendrick finished 18th in the MVP vote that year, the only time that he ever earned down-ballot MVP votes.

Kendrick appeared in the postseason in four different seasons with the Angels, slashing just .186/.197/.288 in 63 plate appearances. His lone bright spot was a solo home run off Andy Pettitte in Game 3 of the 2009 ALCS.

In December 2014, Kendrick was traded north to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for pitcher Andrew Heaney. He hit .295 with a 1.6 WAR in Los Angeles, missing over a month late in the season with a strained hamstring. The Dodgers acquired Chase Utley from the Phillies to fill in at second, but Utley yielded the starting job when Kendrick returned. The 32-year-old Kendrick started all five games of the NLDS against Murphy and the Mets, with Utley limited to pinch-hitting and hard-sliding duty.

The Dodgers wanted Utley in the lineup in 2016, so Kendrick became a utility player; he primarily played left field, but also filled in at first, second, and third bases. He only hit .255 (a career low) with 8 HR and 40 RBI (in 146 games), yielding a 0.8 WAR, also a career-worst. In the postseason, Kendrick struggled again, slashing .227/.261/.318.

In the offseason, the Dodgers traded Kendrick to Utley’s old team, the Philadelphia Phillies. A strained right abdomen limited Kendrick’s playing with the Phillies to just 39 games, and he was traded in late July to the Washington Nationals, making him Murphy’s teammate. Kendrick played in four different positions for the Nats down the stretch in 2017, mostly in left field to replace the injured Jayson Werth, and then, while Bryce Harper was injured, when Werth returned to the diamond and moved to right. In the playoffs, a three-game NLDS loss to the Chicago Cubs, Kendrick was limited to pinch-hitting duties.

The 2018 campaign was a lost season for Kendrick; a ruptured Achilles on May 19th ended his season prematurely.

Kendrick had a nice comeback season in 2018 as a utility player. He appeared in 121 games, and, in 370 PA, hit .344 with 17 HR and 62 RBI, yielding a career-high 146 OPS+ and a solid 2.8 WAR. It was in the postseason, at age 36, in his 14th MLB season, that Howie Kendrick finally became a household name.

In the previous segment, we highlighted how Murphy was an unlikely postseason star. Kendrick was equally unlikely. In 30 previous postseason games in his career, he had hit a lowly .211 with a .235 OBP, .337 SLG, with just two HR and five RBI. In 2019, the Nats played in 17 games en route to the World Series championship, with Kendrick starting in 16 of those 17 games, at first base, second base, and DH.

After winning the Wild Card game against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Nats were matched up against the Dodgers in the NLDS. In the winner-take-all Game 5 at Dodger Stadium, the Dodgers had a 3-1 lead after seven innings. Clayton Kershaw was in the game, out of the bullpen, and gave up back-to-back home runs to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto, with Soto’s tater a titanic blast.

The game went to extra innings, tied at 3. In the top of the 10th, Dodgers reliever Joe Kelly loaded the bases, the last one an intentional walk to Soto with first base open. Kendrick then hit a grand slam to center field, to deliver a 7-3 victory and a trip to the NLCS against the St. Louis Cardinals. The Nationals swept the Cards in four games, with Kendrick going 3 for 4 with three doubles and three RBI in Game 3.

The Nats, who won 93 games in the regular season, were huge underdogs to the 107-win Houston Astros. The teams split the first six games, setting up Game 7 in Houston, with a pitching matchup of two future Hall of Famers (Max Scherzer for the Nats and Zack Greinke for the Astros). After six innings, the Astros had a 2-0 lead. With one out in the top of the 7th, Anthony Rendon hit a solo home run. After a walk to Soto, Astros manager Dusty Baker went to the bullpen, bringing in Will Harris. On the second offering from Harris, Kendrick hit a line drive down the right field line, which hit the foul pole for a go-ahead two-run homer. The Nats tacked on three more runs in the 8th and the 9th to secure the first World Series title in franchise history.

It would have been poetic if Kendrick’s career ended with that epic moment, but he returned for the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. In 25 games, he hit .275 with a -0.2 WAR. At age 37, he announced his retirement in December.

By WAR, Howie Hendrick was the 7th best second baseman in baseball between 2006 and 2020, behind Robinson Cano, Chase Utley, Ian Kinsler, Dustin Pedroia, Ben Zobrist, and Howie Kendrick. That puts him in nice company, but puts him far short of the Hall of Fame. Still, he was a great team player who ended his career in style with his 2019 postseason heroics.

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Cooperstown Cred: Rick Porcello (SP)

• Tigers (2009-14), Red Sox (2015-19), Mets (2020)
• Career: 150-125 W-L (.545), .4.40 ERA, 1,561 SO
• Career: 99 ERA+, 18.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 2016 A.L. Cy Young Award Winner: 22-4, 3.15 ERA
• Member of the 2018 World Series Champion Boston Red Sox

Frederick Alfred Porcello III was a first-round draft pick (#27 overall) in 2007 by the Detroit Tigers. Porcello was a standout at Seton Hall Preparatory School in West Orange, New Jersey. In his senior season, he went 10-0 with a 1.44 ERA, a season that included a perfect game. Although he was ranked as the #1 high school prospect, he fell to #27, likely because he retained super-agent Scott Boras, scaring off some teams. Boras did his job, getting Porcello a contract worth a total of $11.1 million, the most ever for a high schooler at the time.

After just one season in the minor leagues (Lakeland in the Florida State League), Porcello was the youngest player in Major League Baseball when he made his debut on April 9, 2009, just over three months after his 20th birthday. His debut, against the Toronto Blue Jays rookie Ricky Romero, was the first time in MLB history that two first-round picks faced off in their respective debuts.

Porcello went 1-3 in his first four starts (with a 6.23 ERA), but then rattled off five consecutive wins in May (with a 1.50 ERA), making him the youngest pitcher to win five starts in a row since Dwight Gooden‘s seven in 1985. Overall, Porcello went 14-9 with a 3.96 ERA in his rookie campaign. His WAR was 2.4, depressed slightly because he only struck out 89 batters in 170.2 innings.

Despite his youth, manager Jim Leyland tabbed Porcello to start the tie-breaker game in the A.L. Central. In what was the final regular-season game at the Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome, Porcello gave up just two runs (one earned) in 5.2 innings, in a game that the Tigers ultimately lost in 12 innings.

After the season, Porcello was third in the A.L. Rookie of the Year voting, behind Oakland’s Andrew Bailey and Texas’s Elvis Andrus.

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Porcello featured a fastball in the low 90s but, as a rookie, mostly featured a sinker, with nearly the same velocity as his heater. As the years progressed, Porcello relied on the sinker less, becoming a five-pitch hurler with a slider, curve, and changeup.

Porcello remained a mainstay in the Tigers’ rotation, behind future Hall of Famers Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, but struggled for his next four years in Detroit. From 2010 to 2013, Porcello went just 47-41 for a contending team, posting a 4.64 ERA and total WAR of 4.4.

The Tigers won 95 games to claim the A.L. Central in 2011; Porcello won 14 games despite a 4.75 ERA. Verlander (24-5, 2.40 ERA) would win the Cy Young and MVP that year, but Scherzer wasn’t yet showing the Hall of Fame form that he would in future years; he went 15-9 with a 4.43 ERA. The team had acquired Doug Fister (8-1, 1.79 ERA) at the trading deadline, so Porcello was the fourth starter in the playoffs. He started Game 4 of the ALDS (against the New York Yankees) and was the losing pitcher, but the Tigers prevailed in five games.

In the ALCS, after two innings of relief in Game 1 of the ALCS (his first-ever experience out of the bullpen in MLB), Porcello started Game 4 against the Texas Rangers. He pitched well (6.2 IP, 3 Runs, 2 ER) but was the losing pitcher. In Game 6 (at the Ballpark in Arlington), Porcello relieved Scherzer in the bottom of the 3rd, with the Tigers trailing 5-2. He gave up four additional runs (two of which were charged to Scherzer); the Tigers lost 15-5 and the series in six games.

Porcello went 10-12 with a 4.59 ERA in 2012, giving up a league-high 226 hits in 176.1 IP. The Tigers won the A.L. Central again and advanced all the way to the World Series (losing in four games to the San Francisco Giants). Porcello only pitched twice, both times in mop-up duty.

In 2013, Porcello (13-8, 4.32 ERA) was the Tigers’ fifth starter, behind Verlander, Cy Young winner Scherzer, Fister, and Anibal Sanchez. The Tigers defeated the Oakland A’s in the ALDS, setting up what would turn out to be a classic ALCS against the Boston Red Sox.

In the pivotal Game 2 at Fenway Park, Scherzer was brilliant, giving up just one run on two hits with 13 strikeouts in seven innings. However, Scherzer had thrown 108 pitches, so Leyland went to his bullpen. Four relievers famously blew the Tigers’ 5-1 lead, culminating with David Ortiz‘s game-tying grand slam off Joaquin Benoit. With four of Leyland’s top relievers having been used in the 8th, Leyland put Porcello in the unenviable position of entering a tie game in the bottom of the 9th. After an infield single, a throwing error, and a wild pitch, Johnny Gomes was on third base with no outs. On a 3-1 pitch, Red Sox catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia stroked a ground ball single to left, giving the Sox a 6-5 victory. The game turned the tide of the series, and the Sox would prevail in six games.

In 2014, the 25-year-old Porcello finally came closer to living up to the promise he showed as a rookie. He went 15-13 with a 3.43 ERA, which included the first three shutouts (and only) of his career. The Tigers won their fourth straight A.L. Central title, but fell to the Baltimore Orioles in a three-game ALDS sweep; Porcello did not appear.

In December 2014, the Tigers traded Porcello to the Boston Red Sox in a deal that brought Yoenis Cespedes to Detroit. In April, Porcello agreed to a four-year, $82.5 million contract extension. Porcello struggled in his first season in Boston; in a season marred by his first trip to the Disabled List, he went 9-15 with a 4.92 ERA.

Porcello had the year of his life in 2016, when he went 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA en route to the A.L. Cy Young Award. He struck out a career-high 189 batters (in his career high of 223 innings); his 5.91 SO/BB ratio was the best in the league. Porcello barely bested his former teammate (Justin Verlander) for the Cy Young, with Verlander actually earning more first-place votes. Verlander’s ERA was better (3.04); he struck out a league-leading 254 batters, led the league in WHIP (1.001), and had a 7.4 WAR (compared to Porcello’s 4.7). But he only won 16 games, and the writers still cared a bit about wins and losses.

The Red Sox won the A.L. East, and Porcello started Game 1 of the ALDS against the Cleveland Indians; he gave up 5 runs in 4.1 innings and was the losing pitcher in what would be a three-game sweep by Cleveland.

After the best year of his career in 2016, Porcello had his worst in 2017. He went 11-17 with a 4.65 ERA, giving up a league-leading 236 hits and 38 home runs. His -0.4 WAR was the worst of his career. The Red Sox lost in the ALDS to the Houston Astros; Porcello gave up two runs in four innings in one relief outing and one start.

In 2018, Porcello went 17-7 with a 4.28 ERA, and the Red Sox defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers in the Fall Classic, giving Porcello his first and only World Series championship. In five appearances (three starts, two relief appearances), Porcello won Game 4 of the ALDS against the New York Yankees and posted a 3.52 ERA in 15.1 IP.

Porcello went 14-12 with a 5.52 ERA in 2019, his final season in Boston. A free agent after the season, Porcello signed with the New York Mets on a one-year contract. The 31-year-old Porcello struggled in his one year in Flushing, going 1-7 with a 5.64 ERA in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign. After not pitching in 2021 or 2022, he announced his retirement on December 5, 2022.

Having spent most of his 12-year career pitching for contending teams, Porcello’s 150 wins were tied (with teammate David Price) for the 6th most in baseball from 2009 to 2020, behind only future Hall of Famers Verlander, Scherzer, Zack Greinke, and Clayton Kershaw, as well as Jon Lester.

Because his career started so early (at age 20), Porcello could have made the Hall of Fame if he had been able to approach the quality of his 2016 campaign. His ERA at the time was 4.20, thanks to his lean early years in Detroit, but he had 107 career wins and enough time to get his ERA to an acceptable range for a Hall of Famer. But, alas, that 2016 season was an outlier.

Porcello’s career ERA (4.40) is the fourth-highest in baseball history for any pitcher with at least 150 wins, behind Livan Hernandez, Tim Wakefield, and Willis Hudlin. So, despite the promise of his rookie campaign and his 2016 Cy Young campaign, Porcello will never make it to Cooperstown.

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Cooperstown Cred: Gio Gonzalez (SP)

• Athletics (2008-11), Nationals (2012-18), Brewers (2018-19), White Sox (2020)
• Career: 131-101 W-L, .565 WL%, 3.70 ERA, 1,860 SO
• Career: 111 ERA+, 28.3 WAR
• 2-time All-Star
• Finished 3rd in the 2012 N.L. Cy Young voting: 21-8, 2.89 ERA, 5.0 WAR

Giovany Aramis Gonzalez, born on September 19, 1985, in Hialeah, FL, to Cuban parents, was traded three times before he ever threw a pitch in Major League Baseball.

The left-handed throwing Gonzalez was a first-round pick by the Chicago White Sox in the 2004 draft. After two years in the Sox minor league system, he was the “player to be named later” in a trade that sent Aaron Rowand to the Philadelphia Phillies in exchange for future Hall of Famer Jim Thome. While with the Phillies, Baseball America rated Gonzalez the #2 prospect in their farm system, behind fellow lefty hurler Cole Hamels.

After one year in the Phillies organization, he was traded back to the White Sox, along with pitcher Gavin Floyd, for pitcher Freddy Garcia, and then, one year later, he was traded with two other players to the Oakland Athletics in a deal that sent Nick Swisher to Chicago.

A little over a month before his 23rd birthday, on August 5, 2008, Gonzalez made his MLB debut. Gonzalez struggled initially, posting a 7.68 ERA in 34 innings in 2008. He started the 2009 season back in the minors (AAA Sacramento). He pitched 98.2 innings with the big club in Oakland, going 6-7 with a 5.74 ERA.

Gonzalez emerged as a top-flight MLB starter in 2010, his age 24 season. In 200.2 innings, he went 15-9 with a 3.23 ERA. He improved on that in 2011, going 16-12 with a 3.12 ERA while making his first All-Star team. In the offseason, he was traded for the fourth time in his young career, this time to the Washington Nationals in a six-player trade.

With the Nationals in 2012, now 26 years old, Gonzalez was an All-Star again and went 21-8 with a 2.89 ERA. In 199.1 innings, he struck out 207 batters (for a league-best 9.3 SO/9) and had a 5.0 WAR. Gonzalez earned down-ballot MVP votes and was third in the N.L. Cy Young voting, behind R.A. Dickey and Clayton Kershaw.

The Nats won the N.L. East title in 2012, but fell to the St. Louis Cardinals in a five-game NLDS. Gonzalez was the starter in Games 1 and 5, earning no-decisions in both. In Game 1, he gave up two runs in five innings, giving up just one hit, but he walked seven. In Game 5, he gave up three runs in five innings, but the Nats had a 6-3 lead when manager Davey Johnson (who passed away last fall) went to his bullpen. The Nats were still up 7-5 after eight innings, but closer Drew Storen gave up four runs in the top of the 9th to blow the win and the series.

Gonzalez was solid but not spectacular from 2013-2016, winning either 11 or 10 games each year, while posting an overall ERA of 3.82 for those four seasons. The Nats made the playoffs as the N.L. East champs in 2014 (under Matt Williams) and in 2016 (under Dusty Baker), but lost in the NLDS both times (to the San Francisco Giants in 2014 and the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2016). Gonzalez started one game in each series, going less than five innings in both, each a no-decision.

By WAR, 2017 was the best of Gonzalez’s career. He went 15-9, with a 2.96 ERA (152 ERA+) and 6.5 WAR. The Nats won the N.L. East again, and faced the defending World Series Chicago Cubs in the NLDS. Gonzalez was the Nats’ third starter, behind Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, but Scherzer had a right hamstring injury, so Gonzalez started Game 2 at Nationals Park. He gave up three runs in five innings, leaving with the Nats trailing 3-1. The team rallied, however, in the 8th, to even the series at one game apiece.

Scherzer came back to start Game 3 (a loss for Washington); then Strasburg and two relievers shut out the Cubs in Game 4, setting up the decisive Game 5, with Baker giving Gonzalez the starting nod. Gonzalez struggled, giving up four runs in three innings. The bullpen (including Scherzer, the losing pitcher) gave up six more runs, and the Cubs prevailed 9-8.

Gonzalez finished 6th in the Cy Young voting, behind Scherzer, Kershaw, Strasburg, Zack Greinke, and Kenley Jansen.

In 2018, Gonzalez struggled again, going 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA, and then was traded at the end of August to the Milwaukee Brewers. Gonzalez rediscovered his form in Milwaukee, going 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA in five starts, helping the Brew Crew to the N.L. Central title.

After the Brewers swept the Rockies in the NLDS, manager Craig Counsell went to a pitching committee in Game 1 of the NLCS against the Dodgers. Gonzalez gave up one run in two innings before yielding to Brandon Woodruff. Gonzalez also started Game 4, but, in the top of the 2nd inning, he suffered a high ankle sprain trying to field a ball hit by Yasiel Puig. The injury ended his season, and the Brewers lost the NLCS in seven games.

A free agent after the season, Gonzalez signed a minor league contract with the New York Yankees, but opted out of his contract after starting three games for Scranton/Wilkes-Barre (AAA). He re-signed with the Brewers, pitching in 19 games, going 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA. He returned to his original organization, the White Sox, for the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, compiling a 4.83 ERA in 31.2 innings.

Gonzalez signed a minor-league contract with the Miami Marlins on March 3, 2021, but retired three weeks later, saying that donning the jersey of his hometown club was one of his “biggest dreams” but that his “body wasn’t keeping up with his mind.”

Gonzalez had a fastball in the low 90s, an excellent curveball, and a changeup. He had strikeout stuff, averaging 8.7 whiffs per nine innings. But his career was too short, ending at age 35, to build the statistics necessary for serious consideration for the Hall of Fame.

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