The Cooperstown Candidacy for Mark Buehrle

If you’re a baseball fan over the age of 50, Mark Buehrle was a pitcher who would remind you of baseball in the 1970s. He didn’t throw over 95 miles per hour. Even at 6’2″ and 240 pounds (per Baseball-Reference), Buehrle could be described as a “crafty” lefthander, one who mixed a curve, slider, cutter, and changeup to go with a fastball in the mid-’80s.

Buehrle pitched to contact, shut down the opposition’s running game with a superb pickoff move, and was unusually durable for a 21st-century pitcher. For 15 straight years, he started over 30 games; for 14 years in a row, he logged over 200 innings.

Buehrle also worked quickly. The pitch clock would never have come to Major League Baseball if all pitchers worked as Buehrle did. Chicago Sun-Times writer Rick Morrissey wrote that a beat writer could “make a deadline with no worries, and you’d be home or at a bar at a decent hour.” He added that he “had a theory that if a Sox beat writer had a child in the spring, you could walk back the pregnancy to one of Buehrle’s starts the previous summer.”

In a piece written in 2014, Carl Bialik from FiveThirtyEight estimated that big lefthander had spared baseball fans nearly 63 hours of dead time over the course of his career. Mark Buehrle was, simply, the fastest pitching gun on the diamond.

“Buehrle’s the best to play behind. He just grabs it and fires it. When he’s throwing his game, you know exactly what it’s going to be.”

— Paul Konerko, Chicago Sun-Times (April 17, 2005, after a Buehrle complete game in 1:39)

“I am strongly of the belief that baseball — and the whole world, frankly — would be so much better if there were more Mark Buehrles in it… He pitched fast, and he threw strikes, and he struck out some, but mostly he relied on his fielders to make the plays. The game used to be filled with pitchers like that, pitchers who couldn’t throw 100 but gave you crisp games of pure enjoyment. By the time Buehrle came around in 2000, there wasn’t much room left for them. By the time he retired in 2015, he was basically the last man standing.”

— Joe Posnanski, JoeBlogs (Jan. 24, 2022)

Having retired at the end of the 2015 season, Buehrle was on the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) ballot for the third time last month. In his first year on the ballot, Buehrle got the support of 11% of the writers; a year ago, he received 5.8%, putting him barely above the 5% minimum threshold to remain on future ballots. This year, he ticked back up to 10.8%. All three tallies are vastly short of the 75% needed for induction into the Hall of Fame.

While Buehrle never had the dominant seasons that one normally sees in a strong Cooperstown candidate, he does have several points in his favor and has a sneakily strong case. I’ll go through those points in favor (and others against) after a recap of his 16-year career in Major League Baseball.

Cooperstown Cred: Mark Buehrle (SP)

4th year on BBWAA ballot in 2024 (received 10.8% of the vote in 2023)

• White Sox (2000-11), Marlins (2012), Blue Jays (2013-15)
• Career: 214-160 (.572 WL%), 3.81 ERA
• Career: 117 ERA+, 60.0 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 5-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 2-0, 1 Save, 3.47 ERA in 23.1 IP in 2005 postseason (White Sox won World Series)
• Pitched a no-hitter in 2007 and a perfect game in 2009

(cover photo: AP/Ann Heisenfelt)

This piece was originally posted in January 2021. It has been updated in advance of the 2024 Hall of Fame vote.

Mark Buehrle’s Unlikely Road to the Majors

Mark Alan Buehrle was born on March 23, 1979, in St. Charles, Missouri, which is a suburb on the northwest side of St. Louis. Not surprisingly, Mark grew up rooting for the St. Louis Cardinals. As a left-handed pitcher, he liked Redbird lefties John Tudor and Joe Magrane, but his favorite player was closer Todd Worrell. Buehrle was a bit late to reach his eventual height of 6’2″; he failed to make the team at Francis Lowell North High School as either a freshman or sophomore because was barely five feet tall. He started to sprout before his junior year, made the team, and pitched well enough in two seasons to earn a scholarship to Jefferson College in Hillsboro, MO (about 50 miles south of St. Charles).

Buehrle pitched well enough as a freshman in college that the Chicago White Sox selected him in the 38th round of the 1998 draft. The White Sox waited until the following spring to formally lock up the now 20-year-old lefthander (under the game’s “draft, follow, and evaluate” rule). Buehrle signed in late May 1999 for $150,000 plus $25,000 set aside to continue his education. At the time, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch listed him at 195 pounds and he claimed to have a fastball “consistently around 90.”

For a prospect drafted so low, Buehrle’s path to the major leagues was remarkably quick. In his first minor league campaign (with the Class A Burlington Bees), he went 7-4 with a 4.10 ERA but impressed by walking only 16 batters in 98.2 innings. After that lone season in the minors, Buehrle became the #10 prospect in the White Sox organization (according to Baseball America) and almost made the big club out of spring training in 2000. Instead, after being the last player cut, he was promoted to AA ball. Pitching for the Birmingham Barons, Buehrle sparkled, going 8-4 with a 2.28 ERA in 118.2 IP (and an even more impressively low total of 17 walks).

Buehrle’s performance was good enough to earn him a promotion to the White Sox in July. Pitching mostly out of the bullpen (3 starts, 25 relief appearances), the 21-year-old posted a 4-1 record and 4.21 ERA in 51.1 innings. If that ERA seems lackluster, remember that 2000 was one of the most super-charged offensive seasons in baseball history; the 14 American League teams combined for a 4.91 ERA, putting Buehrle’s 4.21 well above average (represented by a 120 ERA+). The White Sox were the 2000 A.L. Central champs but were swept in the A.L. Division Series by the Seattle Mariners; Buehrle logged a third of an inning in mop-up duty in Game 2.

Mark Buehrle: Mr. Consistency & Durability

Starting in ’01, Mark Buehrle had a remarkable 15-year record in which he logged at least 31 starts and 198.2 innings per year. Not once did he have to make a trip to the disabled list. He rarely had seasons that put him in the conversation for the Cy Young Award, but he also never had a campaign in which his presence on the mound hurt his team.

During all but one season of his 16-year career (excluding 2006), Buehrle posted an ERA between 3.12 and 4.28. Those numbers translate to an adjusted ERA+ of as low as 99 (barely below average) to 144 (significantly above average). With the exception of 2002 (when he won 19 games), he posted between 10 and 15 wins every year from ’01 to ’15.

Here are Buehrle’s numbers year by year:

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2001-04: Early Years in Chicago

Mark Buehrle started the 2001 campaign with the Chicago White Sox as manager Jerry Manuel’s #4 starter. He got off to a very slow start, posting a 7.04 ERA in his first four outings. He settled down in his next four (3.29 ERA) before going on a run that established him as the team’s best rotation option: in 14 starts between May 26th and August 8th, he went 9-3 with a 1.89 ERA. Buehrle started that streak by pitching a 3-hit shutout in Detroit, followed by two more scoreless outings (7.2 and 8 IP) at home against the Tigers and on the road in Kansas City.

All told, at the end of the campaign, his 140 ERA+ was the third-best in the American League. Thanks to a paltry 48 bases on balls issued in 221.1 innings, his WHIP (walks + hits per inning) was a league-best 1.066. Buehrle’s WAR was 6.0 in 2001, putting him 3rd in the league behind Hall of Famer Mike Mussina (of the Yankees) and the Twins’ Joe Mays.

As a hurler who pitched to contact, he established himself as an excellent fielder, leading the A.L. in assists for pitchers (the first of five times he would do so). Buehrle didn’t receive any down-ballot Cy Young consideration but arguably deserved some. As for the team, the Chisox regressed to 83 wins, putting them 8 games out of the playoffs, to which they would not return until 2005.

Buehrle began the 2002 campaign as the Chisox’s Opening Day starter and established himself as a legitimate star. He won his first four starts while posting a 1.33 ERA. After 16 starts, he was 10-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He won his next start despite giving up 6 runs; those 11 wins (best in the A.L.) and still-excellent 3.18 ERA earned him a berth on the All-Star team. A.L. manager Joe Torre used Buehrle in the 4th and 5th innings of the Mid-Summer Classic (at Miller Park in Milwaukee); he gave up one run in the game that infamously ended in a tie.

On the day on which he was named to the team (June 30th), the 22-year-old lefty had his worst start of the season, giving 8 runs to the crosstown Chicago Cubs at Comiskey Park. Overall, he finished the season with a career-high 19 victories, losing his chance at #20 in his final start of the season when he blew a 2-1 lead in the 8th inning on a two-run homer by Bobby Kielty at the Metrodome. In an era in which complete games and shutouts for starting pitchers have become increasingly rare, Buehrle finished five outings, with two of them shutouts.

After having established himself in 2001-02 as one of the top pitchers in the A.L., Buehrle regressed in 2003. He got off to a terrific start, going 2-1 with a 1.23 in his first three outings. After those three starts, however, he went into a terrible slump, going 0-9 with a 6.45 ERA in 12 efforts. After his June 11th start, in which he gave up a first-inning grand slam to the San Francisco Giants’ Pedro Feliz and (later) a two-run bomb to Barry Bonds, the White Sox’ ace heard boo-birds in Chicago. Buehrle righted his ship after that terrible outing; we went 12-4 with a 3.47 ERA in his final 20 starts.

2004 was a little better for Buehrle. It was a solid, workmanlike season, one that would be typical in his career. He went 16-10 with a 3.89 ERA (121 ERA+) while leading the A.L. with 245.1 innings pitched.

2005: A Banner Year in Chicago

The Chicago White Sox were a solid team in Mark Buehrle’s first full seasons (2001-2004) but didn’t get closer than second place in the A.L. Central (in 2003 when they went 86-76). In 2005, the Chisox clicked on all cylinders, winning 99 games (most in the A.L.) under first-year manager Ozzie Guillen.

Besides Buehrle (who went 16-8 with a 3.12 ERA), three other starters (Freddy Garcia, Jon Garland, and Jose Contreras) all had breakout or resurgent campaigns. With a deep bullpen to complement the top four starters, the White Sox won those 99 games despite an offense that was only 9th in runs scored in the 14-team Junior Circuit.

The team and their ace got off to a fast start, blowing away the competition in the Central. Pitching on Opening Day for the fourth straight year, Buehrle was superb, holding the Cleveland Indians to no runs and just two hits in 8 innings of work, giving the Chisox a 1-0 victory in a game that lasted one hour and 51 minutes. His third start of the campaign (at home against Seattle) was notable for two reasons. First, he set a career-high with 12 strikeouts (against one run, 3 hits, and one walk). Secondly, in the team’s 1-0 victory over the Mariners and Ryan Franklin, the game was completed in just 1 hour and 39 minutes. It was the fastest game in Mariners’ history and the quickest in all of MLB for over 20 years.

Buehrle was 10-1 with a 2.42 ERA at the end of June, while the Chisox as a team were 53-24, giving them a 10.5-game lead over the Twins. Not surprisingly, Buehrle was selected to his second All-Star squad, along with teammates Garland, first baseman Paul Konerko, and outfielder Scott Podsednik. Boston Red Sox manager Terry Francona gave Buehrle the honor of starting the game. Pitching in Comerica Park in Detroit, Buehrle responded with two scoreless innings, including strikeouts of Hall of Famer Mike Piazza and Jeff Kent to end the 2nd. When Miguel Tejada led off the bottom of the frame with a solo tater off John Smoltz (another Cooperstown inductee), the A.L. had a lead they would never relinquish, giving Buehrle the victory. (The All-Star Game’s scoring rules do not require a starting pitcher to go five innings to get a win).

For the second time in his career, Buehrle’s selection to the All-Star squad was announced on the same day that he pitched like anything but. On July 3rd in Oakland, he gave up 7 runs (4 earned) on 14 hits in 6.1 innings. That start began an uneven 9-game stretch in which he went 3-5 with a 4.42 ERA.

Still, in late July, Buehrle completed a streak of 49 consecutive starts in which he tossed at least 6 innings, the longest such streak since Steve Carlton went 6+ innings 69 times in a row from 1979-82. The 6-inning streak ended on August 1st when he was ejected with two outs in the 6th inning after hitting B.J. Surhoff with a pitch. The durable lefty then authored another 10 straight efforts of 6 or more innings. In Buehrle’s last start of the season, Guillen lifted him after just 88 pitches (5.2 innings of shutout ball) as he was resting most of his regulars in anticipation of the playoffs.

Mark Buehrle’s 2005 Postseason

In the ALDS, the White Sox were matched up against the defending World Series Champion Red Sox. After a 14-2 blowout win for Chicago in Game 1, Buehrle took the hill at U.S. Cellular Field against former teammate David Wells. The Red Sox scored four runs in the first three innings but Buehrle hung in there. By the end of the 7th, the Chisox had given him a 5-4 lead, which the bullpen protected to give the 26-year-old lefty his first postseason victory. (The White Sox completed the sweep two days later at Fenway Park).

Chicago took on the Los Angeles Angels in the ALCS. After losing the first game at home, the team did something that was unheard of in modern baseball, winning four games in a row without using one member of the bullpen. Buehrle, Garland, Garcia, and Contreras all tossed complete games (giving up a combined 8 runs) to send the Pale Hose to the Fall Classic. With respect to our featured performer, Buehrle was magnificent in Game 2, giving up just 1 run on 5 hits with no walks and 4 strikeouts. He needed just 99 pitches in his 9 innings and was the winner when Joe Crede hit a walk-off double in the bottom of the 9th. The game lasted 2 hours and 34 minutes.

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Against the Houston Astros in the World Series, the White Sox took Game 1 at U.S. Cellular Field behind Contreras and bullpen stalwarts Neal Cotts and Bobby Jenks. Buehrle drew the Game 2 assignment against Andy Pettitte (who is also on the 2024 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot). Buehrle gave up 4 runs on 7 hits (0 BB, 6 SO) in 7 innings of work but stood to be the winning pitcher when Konerko hit a 7th-inning grand slam off reliever Chad Qualls. Jenks, however, blew the potential victory for Buehrle when he gave up 2 runs in the top of the 9th. The White Sox won the game in the bottom of the frame on a walk-off home run by Podsednik.

Game 3 at Houston’s Minute Maid Park (started by Garland) lasted 14 innings, with the White Sox winning 7-5. A total of 17 pitchers were used in the game, with Guillen using his entire bullpen. In the bottom of the 14th, with reliever Damaso Marte tiring after 39 pitches thrown, Guillen brought Buehrle in to finish the game with two outs and runners on the corners. In what was his first (and only) relief appearance since 2000, Buehrle got the Astros’ Adam Everett to pop out to shortstop, giving the White Sox the win and Buehrle the save. That loss broke Houston’s proverbial back; the White Sox secured the sweep and the title the next night.

Given that Buehrle had thrown 100 pitches in his Game 2 start, he was hardly expecting to be called upon two nights later for that Game 3 save. And so, in a story he confirmed years later, Buehrle recorded that save after having had a few brews in the clubhouse.

 “I would’ve bet my house that I wasn’t going to pitch a day and a half later. Anyone would have. So, that being the case, you better believe that I was gonna do what came natural to me — grab a few beers during the early innings, kick back and enjoy the game like everyone else. And it was just like one or two beers. Every time I grabbed one, I’d go over and check in with the coaches.

‘Hey, you guys are sure you’re not going to need me, right?’

‘No, Mark. You are not pitching today. You just went.’

So I’d hear that and grab a beer. It was only like three beers…. Max. Definitely no more than three, though. I swear.”

— Mark Buehrle (Yahoo Sports, 6/23/2017)

After the season, Buehrle came in 5th place in the Cy Young vote, behind Bartolo Colon, Mariano Rivera, Johan Santana, and Cliff Lee. It was the only time he would ever get a down-ballot vote for Cy.

2006-08: Mediocrity, Near Perfection, and an October Return

Mark Buehrle led the American League in innings pitched in 2005 (with 236.2). With an additional 23.1 IP in the playoffs, he finished the season with 257 innings thrown. It’s perhaps for that reason that he wore down in 2006. The 27-year-old left-hander did get off to another solid start, however, going 9-4 in his first 16 outings with a 3.22 ERA. For this, Guillen named his ace lefty to the All-Star team.

For the third time in a row, the All-Star nod seemed to be a curse: on the day of the announcement (July 2nd), he was lit up once again by the Cubs. In this, arguably the worst outing of his career, Buehrle gave up 11 runs (10 earned) in 5 innings, ballooning his season ERA to 3.86. That ill-fated start at Wrigley Field was the beginning of a terrible run of 16 outings in which he went 3-9 with a horrible 7.12 ERA. Thanks in part to Buehrle’s off-year, the Chisox finished 5 games out of the playoffs, going 90-72.

Due to weak hitting and defense, the White Sox collapsed in 2007 (going 72-90) despite (by one measure anyway) Buehrle’s best season (6.1 WAR). By more traditional measures, it was middling: a 10-9 record with a 3.63 ERA.

2007 was the year of one of the two signature outings of his 16-year career. On a cold April evening at U.S. Cellular Field in front of 25,390 delighted spectators, Buehrle tossed a no-hitter against the Texas Rangers. He didn’t get a perfect game thanks to a 5th-inning walk to Sammy Sosa but faced the minimum of 27 batters by picking off the former Cubs’ slugger. In typical Buehrle fashion, he was the primary reason for the game’s brief time of 2 hours and 3 minutes.

The no-no was part of a strong first half of the 2007 campaign; he posted a 3.03 ERA in 17 starts but, thanks likely to his 8-6 record, was bypassed for the Mid-Summer Classic squad. During the season, the White Sox kept their ace lefty off the free-agent market by inking him to a 4-year, $56 million deal.

Buehrle was the White Sox’ Opening Day starter for the 7th straight season to begin the 2008 campaign. It was an inauspicious debut. For only the second time in his career, Buehrle didn’t last 2 innings (the first time was due to getting hit by a batted ball). This time, he simply got pummeled (by the Indians in Cleveland) for 7 runs in 1.2 IP. That weak opening effort was part of a 2-6 start (5.27 ERA) in 11 starts. The veteran lefty turned things around starting in June, however; he went 13-6 with a 3.08 ERA in his final 22 outings, helping the Chisox back to the playoffs with the A.L. Central title.

There would be no World Champion bubbly this year, however, for the White Sox, who lost to the Tampa Bay Rays in the ALDS. Buehrle was the starter and loser in Game 2, giving up 5 runs in 7 innings.

2009-11: Buehrle’s Final 3 Years in Chicago

Mark Buehrle was an All-Star again (for the fourth time) in 2009, thanks to a 9-2 start (3.14 ERA) in his first 17 starts. Buehrle didn’t pitch on the day of the announcement this year but still continued his All-Star curse (sort of) by throwing a clunker in his final start of the first half of the season (8 ER in 3.1 IP in Minnesota).

After a scoreless inning in the Mid-Summer Classic in his hometown of St. Louis, Buehrle started the second half with a solid start (7.1 IP, 1 ER) before authoring the second signature outing of his career.

Pitching at home on a Thursday afternoon (July 23rd) in front of 28,036 fans, Buehrle became the 16th pitcher in modern baseball history to toss a perfect game. This game was made especially famous by the great catch in left-center field by Dewayne Wise. Wise’s catch not preserved not only Buehrle’s perfecto but also his shutout since it robbed Tampa Bay’s Gabe Kapler of a home run. Wise’s catch was made with no outs in the 9th inning; two batters later, Buehrle induced a groundout by Jason Bartlett to complete the perfecto. He’s one of just 29 hurlers in MLB history to record two or more no-hitters. (The game, of course, was completed quickly, in 2 hours and 3 minutes).

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Buehrle followed up his perfect game by tossing 5.2 perfect innings before a full-count walk to Minnesota’s Alexi Casilla. He thereafter allowed 6 of the next 8 batters to reach, giving up 4 runs and losing the game in the process. Still, with the start of that follow-up game against the Twins, Buehrle set a Major League Baseball record by recording 45 consecutive outs.

Buehrle’s perfect game put the White Sox in a first-place tie in the A.L. Central, but the team went 29-38 down the stretch to finish out of the postseason party. The history-making effort seemed to take some steam out of Buehrle’s sails in the final months of the season: he went 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in his last 13 starts. At the end of the year, Buehrle won the first of his four Gold Gloves.

In 2010, Buehrle had an average campaign, going 13-13 with a 4.28 ERA (100 ERA+) as the White Sox won 88 games to miss the playoffs by seven games.

By WAR, Buehrle was the best player on the 2011 White Sox. He went 13-9 with a 3.59 ERA (121 ERA+, 3.8 WAR). When your best player’s WAR is 3.8, that does not usually portend a playoff berth; the Chisox went 79-83 in Guillen’s final season at the helm.

2012: Mark Buehrle in Florida

Mark Buehrle was a free agent for the first time at the end of the 2011 campaign. Shortly after the season, Ozzie Guillen was named the new manager of the Miami Marlins, and he was eager to bring Buehrle with him to South Florida. In early December, the Marlins inked the veteran left-hander to a four-year, $58 million deal. The Marlins, who were debuting their new ballpark, also signed another top free agent (shortstop Jose Reyes). They had a young slugger (Giancarlo Stanton) and a three-time All-Star shortstop (Hanley Ramirez), who was moved to third base to accommodate Reyes.

Along with a new closer (Heath Bell) and a top young starting pitcher (Josh Johnson), the Marlins were expected to contend in 2012. Ultimately, the team was a flop (they won just 69 games) despite a solid campaign from Buehrle (13-13, 3.74 ERA, 109 ERA+).

Ramirez was traded mid-season, Guillen was fired after the season, and in November, the team dealt Buehrle, Reyes, and Johnson to the Toronto Blue Jays in an 11-player deal.

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2013-15: Mark Buehrle’s Final 3 Seasons (in Toronto)

Just as the Marlins had done in the 2011-12 offseason, the Blue Jays attempted to make big gains in advance of the 2013 campaign. Besides trading for Buehrle, Reyes, and Johnson, they also traded two young prospects (Noah Syndergaard and Travis d’Arnaud) to the New York Mets for the 2012 N.L. Cy Young winner, knuckleballer R.A. Dickey. Additionally, the Jays signed free-agent outfielder Melky Cabrera to join a lineup that included sluggers Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion.

The 2013 campaign for the Blue Jays (under manager John Gibbons) went just as well as the 2012 season did for Miami; the team went 74-88. Buehrle was merely average in his first season north of the border (12-10, 4.15 ERA).

2014 was better for both Buehrle and the Jays. The now-35-year-old veteran went 13-10 with a 3.39 ERA (112 ERA+), helping the team improve to 83 wins. Buehrle set the tone for his season in his first outing of the campaign, a start in Tampa Bay in which he tossed 8.2 scoreless innings (4 hits, 1 walk, 11 strikeouts).

Overall, Buehrle went 10-6 with a 2.64 ERA to earn his 5th and final All-Star berth (with no “naming” jinx this time). Buehrle’s numbers sagged in the second half (2-4, 5.19 ERA) before closing the season in style at Rogers Centre with 8 shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners (3 hits, 1 walk, 10 strikeouts). That final victory represented the 199th of his 15-year career. And, yes, that game clocked in at 1 hour and 59 minutes.

Buehrle didn’t keep Blue Jays fans in suspense about how long it would be for him to win number 200. On April 10th, 2015 in Baltimore, the Jays gave their veteran left-hander a 10-1 lead after 4 frames. Buehrle was lifted after 6 innings (2 ER, 8 hits). Toronto won easily to give the pride of St. Charles, Missouri, his 200th Major League Baseball victory.

Buehrle struggled in his next 4 outings (2-2, 7.77 ERA) but was strong for most of the rest of the season. From May 6th to August 13th, the 36-year-old went 10-3 with a 2.55 ERA in 18 starts. The next 8 efforts, however, were a struggle (2-2, 5.65 ERA), thanks in part to shoulder soreness.

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The End of the Road for Mark Buehrle

Famously, Buehrle was sitting on 198 innings pitched after what was supposed to be his final start of the season (a win in which Gibbons pulled him after 103 pitches in the middle of the 7th inning). The Blue Jays had already clinched the A.L. East, and so Gibbons decided to give Buehrle the ball in the final game of the season on just one day of rest. The purpose was to extend the veteran’s streak of 14 consecutive seasons with 200 or more innings thrown.

It was, unfortunately, an ignominious end to Buehrle’s season and (as it turned out) his career. Pitching in Tampa, Buehrle was torched for 8 runs on 5 hits (with a walk) in the first inning. Thanks to two errors, all of the runs were unearned, but Buehrle was pulled with 2 outs, leaving him with 198.2 IP for the season.

Even with the disappointing finish, Buehrle’s last campaign was commendable: a 15-8 record, 3.81 ERA (for an above-average 108 ERA+). Living up to two of the trademarks of his 16 years in Major League Baseball (durability and impeccable control), Buehrle led all of baseball with 4 complete games and led the A.L. with only 1.5 walks allowed per 9 innings.

Given the fact that he was only 36 years old, Mark Buehrle almost certainly could have continued his MLB career and signed another free-agent contract. Several teams were apparently interested in retaining the services of the innings-eater. There were rumors about the White Sox bringing home their popular hurler for a swan song campaign, but the native of St. Charles, Missouri, was seemingly only interested potentially in signing with his hometown Cardinals. Neither option transpired; Buehrle never pitched again.

“I thought as the (2016) season started I would miss it more and say, ‘What am I doing?’ But I haven’t missed playing one bit, being so busy at home. The family is keeping me busy running around, so I really don’t have much time to sit down and watch a game.”

— Mark Buehrle (Chicago Tribune, 2/24/2017)

Sometimes a player just decides to hang them up because they no longer have the drive the keep competing. Plus, having made approximately $139 million in 16 seasons doesn’t hurt either.

In 2017, the White Sox retired Buehrle’s uniform number 56.

The Hall of Fame Case for and against Mark Buehrle

I will plainly admit when I first saw that Mark Buehrle was going to be on the BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot for the first time (in 2021), I dismissed his candidacy without much thought. He was never somebody that I considered to be Cooperstown-worthy. Especially in his later years, he was a middle-of-the-rotation starter who usually wouldn’t even get picked in my fantasy baseball draft. He was beloved by the hometown fans in Chicago, but there are tons of players who are worthy of being in a specific team’s Hall of Fame without being a legitimate candidate for a plaque in the museum in Cooperstown.

The reasons to be unenthusiastic about his candidacy leap off his Baseball-Reference page. He never won 20 games. Heck, he only won more than 16 games once. His career ERA was 3.81, and he was only in his league’s top 5 twice. Not once did he post an ERA under 3.00. Only once did he receive any consideration for the Cy Young Award. His 214 career victories are a low total for a pitcher without a dominant peak or Cy Young trophies to his name. He only struck out 1,870 batters in 3,283.1 innings pitched.

Now, despite those negatives, having spent a lot of time researching and thinking about Buehrle’s career, I no longer am dismissive of his Hall of Fame case. While I’m still not convinced that he had a career that merits a plaque, there are many points in his favor.

Let’s get WAR out of the way. His career 60.0 WAR puts him in 50th place in the modern game (1901 and later). A career WAR of 60.0 puts him ahead of 19 Hall of Fame starting pitchers. He’s barely behind well-regarded inductees Don Drysdale and Jim Bunning. Take a look at the basics for Buehrle compared to these two men.

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Considering how much more difficult it is for pitchers to rack up wins in today’s game, Buehrle fares quite favorably here. His ERA was much higher, but that’s because he pitched in a super-charged offensive era. His normalized ERA+ is almost as good as Drysdale’s and better than Bunning’s.

Buehrle’s WAR hardly makes him automatically deserving of a vote for Cooperstown, but it demands further analysis.

Points in Favor

As we’ve documented, Mark Buehrle is known best for four things: his two no-hitters (one of which was a perfect game), his durability, his control, and his fast work on the mound. We can’t put someone in the Hall of Fame for working quickly, nor can we induct a pitcher for two great regular-season outings. After all, there are 25 other hurlers who have authored two no-nos, including Mike Fiers, Jake Arrieta, Tim Lincecum, Homer Bailey, Hideo Nomo, Bob Forsch, and Ken Holtzman.

(I should point out that there are only 7 hurlers who have multiple no-hitters with at least one of them being a perfect game, and all but Buehrle are in the Hall: those 6 others are Sandy Koufax, Cy Young, Addie Joss, Bunning, Randy Johnson, and Roy Halladay, with Halladay’s no-hitter occurring in the postseason).

Anyway, Buehrle’s durability is a point worth exploring. We’ve noted that Buehrle tossed at least 200 innings for 14 consecutive seasons. The only hurlers to match or exceed that feat in the Modern Game are Warren Spahn (who did it 17 straight years), Gaylord Perry (15), the late Don Sutton (15), the late Phil Niekro (14), Greg Maddux (14), and Christy Mathewson (14). All of the six other men are in the Hall of Fame. (It should be noted that Sutton would almost certainly have done this a remarkable 21 consecutive years if not for the strike of 1981).

What makes Buehrle’s 200+ innings’ durability especially impressive is that he did it in the 21st century. In the last two decades, strict pitch counts have become the norm, bullpens have been packed with arms to bail out the starters, and hitters have been intent on drawing out long at bats.

Is this 200-inning statistic enough to justify a Cooperstown plaque for Buehrle? Well, if you think it is, then you’ll need to support the candidacy of Bobby Abreu as well, who is the only player other than Willie Mays to play in at least 150 games for 13 straight seasons. I’m inclined to call it a statistical quirk, albeit one that is to be commended for both. What matters is what each player did in those seasons. Abreu has a solid case otherwise, and so does Buehrle.

Breaking down Mark Buehrle’s 200-inning Seasons

On Baseball-Reference’s Stathead service, you can create all sorts of fun leaderboards. So, I did a search to see pitching seasons in which a hurler not only tossed at least 200 innings but also made a positive contribution to his team (with an ERA+ of 100 or better). Buehrle did this 12 times (he had a 95 ERA+ in 2006 and 99 in 2013).

Only 18 pitchers in baseball history had at least 12 such campaigns. All of them are in the Hall of Fame except for Buehrle (Jim Kaat was inducted into the Hall in 2022). Again, doing this in the 21st century makes it more impressive. Other than Buehrle, only Justin Verlander (10 times) and Zack Greinke (9) have as many as 9 such seasons in the last 23 years.

What if we up the ante to 200 innings and an ERA+ of at least 120 (20% above the league average)? With these stricter criteria, Buehrle still has 8 campaigns that match the standard. In the 21st century, only Verlander (10) has more; only the late Doc Halladay (8) has as many. Halladay’s in the Hall and Verlander certainly will be. If you take the entire Modern Era (since 1901), it’s still only 28 hurlers who have accomplished the feat. They all have plaques in a certain museum in Cooperstown, New York, except for Verlander and Roger Clemens (who did it 14 times).

(For the record, Jim Bunning did this 7 times, Don Drysdale 6 times).

So far, all of this looks like someone should be polishing a Cooperstown plaque for Mark Buehrle. But it’s the final step of this analysis where it starts to break down. If you require excellence (for which I will arbitrarily assign as posting an ERA+ of 130 or better), Buehrle only has 3 such campaigns. In the Modern Era, there are 139 hurlers who have posted a 130 or higher ERA+ in 3 or more seasons (with 200+ IP). I’m sure you can guess that many dozens of pitchers (88 actually) have matched or exceeded that feat who are not in the Hall of Fame.

This is ultimately the problem with Buehrle’s Cooperstown candidacy. He was always good but rarely great.

Could Mark Buehrle Have Been a 21st-Century Version of Don Sutton?

One of the pitchers who posted exactly three seasons of 200+ innings with an ERA+ of 130 or above is the late Don Sutton. I noted earlier that Sutton might have logged a remarkable 21 consecutive seasons with 200 or more innings pitched were it not for the strike of 1981.  While briefly reflecting on Sutton’s career, a thought popped into my head: by retiring at the age of 36, did Mark Buehrle give up his chance to be the 21st-century version of Sutton?

Sutton was inducted into the Hall of Fame based on his 324 career victories, but he was not a slam dunk selection. The BBWAA made him wait five years, conferring 56.8% of the vote in 1994 before finally voting in sufficient numbers to result in an 81.% tally in 1998 to give him a plaque in Cooperstown.

Buehrle is not going to get anywhere remotely close to 50% of the vote this year and won’t be getting into the Hall of Fame year from now, but the two pitchers have significant similarities in that they were consistently good but rarely spectacular.

At first glance, the notion of comparing the two men is absurd. Sutton’s 5,283.2 innings pitched are the 7th most in Major League Baseball history; Buehrle’s 3,283.1 IP are the 99th most. Sutton struck out 3,574 batters (7th most ever) compared to Buehrle’s 1,870 (the 111th most). Sutton started 756 games (the 3rd highest total all-time) compared to Buehrle’s 493 (the 54th most). And, of course, Sutton’s 324 wins (14th most) dwarf Buehrle’s 214 (92nd on the list).

However, the reasons that many writers balked at Sutton’s candidacy are similar to the obvious demerits in Buehrle’s case.

• Neither man won a Cy Young Award (although Sutton had 5 straight Top 5 seasons while Buehrle had just one).
• Sutton only won 20 games once; Buehrle never did, although he came close (with 19) in 2002.
• Sutton only made 4 All-Star teams; Buehrle made 5.
• Sutton’s career ERA (3.26) was high for his era, translating to a 108 ERA+. Buehrle’s 3.81 ERA, when contextualized for the time, was actually better (117 ERA+).

The ERA+ disparity leads to a surprising statistic: Sutton’s career WAR (per Baseball-Reference) is 68.3, not dramatically higher than Buehrle’s 60.0, despite those 2,000.1 more innings!

The key to this point is this: Sutton was never a pitcher who was considered a Hall of Famer in the making. He just went out every 4th or 5th day in a workmanlike fashion, threw his 200+ innings, picked up his double-digit wins, and helped his team.

Mark Buehrle and Don Sutton: By the Numbers

So, take a look at the career statistics of Don Sutton and Mark Buehrle through the end of their age-36 seasons (which, of course, in Buehrle’s case, was also his last season).

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It’s not so easy to choose whose career was better if one were to cut off Sutton at age 36:

• From 1966-81, Sutton’s 3,887.2 IP were the 5th most in baseball; Buehrle’s 3,283.1 were the most in all of MLB from 2000-15.
• In those 16 seasons, Sutton won 241 games, a nice total, but 5 Hall of Famers won more. Buehrle’s 214 victories in his 16 campaigns were tied for the most in baseball with CC Sabathia for the years in question.
• On the graphic above, Sutton has a massive edge in Complete Games. But, of course, he pitched in an era where CGs were commonplace. His 162 solo efforts were literally only the 13th most in the game from 1966-81; Buehrle’s 33 CGs were 4th best during his 16 years in MLB.
• By WAR, Buehrle was the 2nd best pitcher in baseball from 2000-15; Sutton’s 53.4 WAR is just the 10th highest during his first 16 years.

Finally, this is the number that proves the point that Buehrle actually had a slightly better career for his first 16 years than Sutton had in his. Buehrle’s 117 ERA+ was the 10th best in baseball from 2000-15; Sutton’s 112 ERA+ was just the 20th best in the game from 1966-81.

If Sutton had retired after the 1981 season, there is no chance whatsoever that he would have made the Hall of Fame. But Sutton didn’t retire: he kept pitching at a league-average level, until he was 43 years old, going 83-72 (.535 WL%) with 3.84 ERA (100 ERA+).

If we take a look at some recent pitchers (those whose careers had significant overlap with Buehrle’s), take a look at what some of them accomplished in their age 37 seasons and beyond:

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If you added any of these pitchers’ real-life numbers from their late 30s and 40s to Buehrle’s career totals, you would have 277 to 368 wins, a WAR of over 73.0, and, thus, a Hall of Famer in the Sutton mold.

Hall of Fame Standards for Modern Pitchers

A player’s Hall of Fame trajectory is often a case of the tortoise or the hare. Some players (the hares) have a massive impact on the game early in their careers. They win MVPs or Cy Youngs, make multiple All-Star squads, and have lots of bold type on the back of their baseball cards or on their Baseball-Reference pages. Other players act like the tortoise. They put up solid, consistent seasons, and do it forever, eventually eclipsing milestones like 500 HR, 3,000 Hits, or 300 Wins.

Although he pitched like his house was on fire, Mark Buehrle’s career path was akin to the tortoise. He was steady, reliable, and durable. As a left-handed pitcher who relied on guile rather than velocity, he might very well have been able to pitch into his early 40s, piling up 250 to 300 wins. And, eventually, Hall of Fame voters may look upon 250 as the new 300.

But, Buehrle chose to retire at the age of 36. As the proverbial pitching tortoise, he didn’t finish the race. And therefore, he won’t make it into the Hall of Fame anytime soon. Still, as the years go by and starting pitchers pitch fewer and fewer innings, his numbers will start to look better every year.

We’re going to see a stretch of several years in which hardly any starting pitchers get elected to the Hall. The only other starting pitcher who will get more than 5% of the BBWAA vote in 2024 is Andy Pettitte, who got just 17.0% of the vote in 2023 and, like Buehrle, is miles away from being honored in Cooperstown.

The only starting pitcher joining the BBWAA ballot in the next five years who has a stronger case than Buehrle’s is CC Sabathia, who will first become eligible on the 2025 ballot. Sabathia’s WAR and ERA (61.8 and 3.74) are barely better than Buehrle’s, but CC’s 251 wins and Cy Young Award give him a stronger case.

After Sabathia, there’s no retired starting pitcher joining the ballot from 2024-29 who appears to have a more compelling Cooperstown case than Buehrle. The top candidates will be Bartolo Colon (this year), Felix Hernandez (2025), Cole Hamels (2026), Jon Lester (2027), David Price (2028), and Adam Wainwright (2029).

• Colon won 247 games and a Cy Young but had a career ERA of 4.12  and 48.1 WAR
• Hernandez looked like a Hall of Famer early in his career but finished with just 169 wins, 49.9 WAR, and 117 ERA+ (the same as Buehrle).
• Hamels has a 58.6 WAR and 3.43 ERA but only 163 wins.
• Lester won 200 games on the nose and matched Buehrle’s 117 ERA+, but his WAR is only 43.5.
• Price finished his career with a strong ERA+ (123) but only had 157 wins and a 40.4 WAR in 2,143.2 IP.
• Wainwright also won exactly 200 games but has a lower ERA+ (114), and his WAR is just 40.6.

After these six, the next candidates will be from among the game’s top active hurlers. Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, and Zack Greinke are all future Hall of Famers (though not all will agree on Greinke), but after that quartet, the only active pitchers who seem even possible are Gerrit Cole and the injury-plagued Chris Sale and Jacob deGrom.

What’s the point of this boring story? The point is that the game has changed forever in the last few decades. Writers and analysts will need to reconsider whether a full recalibration of Hall standards for starting pitchers is needed or if we should accept the fact that starters aren’t as valuable as they used to be and shouldn’t be honored in the Hall of Fame in the same proportion as the starting pitchers of the 20th century.

The Scribes Weigh In

Before offering my own conclusion, let’s take a look at the thoughts of some of the BBWAA members. Needless to say, most writers have left Mark Buehrle off their ballots, but writers are far more likely to put their reasons for “yes” in writing than their reasons for “no.” So, let’s start with a couple of those in favor:

“I hadn’t voted for Buehrle in any of his first three years on the ballot, but that admittedly had more to do with the 10-player limit than my feelings about the left-hander’s career… Buehrle’s career was eerily similar to that of Andy Pettitte, whose name has been checked off in each of my past three ballots. The biggest difference between the two was Pettitte’s postseason success, which came largely as a result of more opportunities to pitch in October.”

— Mark Feinsand, mlb.com (Dec. 30, 2023)

“This marks Buehrle’s third year of eligibility but the first time I’ve voted for the legendary White Sox left-hander. Opinions evolve and in light of how Major League Baseball continues to change the job description of starting pitchers, Buehrle’s qualifications have aged well… They don’t make starting pitchers like Buehrle anymore. They don’t ask starters to do what he did for such a long period of time. The more removed we get from his stellar career, the more we need to appreciate his consistency – the biggest reason I now believe it should be immortalized.”

— David Haugh, 670 The Score (Dec. 15, 2022)

“Buehrle’s final-season ERA of 3.81 — his Age 36 season — was exactly the same as his career ERA, which speaks volumes about the consistency of his career… His ability to control the opponents’ running game was historically elite. Here are two examples: He’s second in MLB history in pickoffs, with 100 (Steve Carlton is first, at 146) and think about this: Since 1910, only two players have thrown at least 3,000 innings and allowed fewer stolen bases than the 59 swiped with Buehrle on the mound… His approach was never about dominating hitters and missing bats like Randy Johnson or Pedro Martinez. He was about throwing strikes, working quickly and inducing weak contact, and he excelled at that approach in ways few other pitchers ever have. He stays (on my ballot).”

— Ryan Fagan, The Sporting News (Jan. 3, 2023)

And next, a small sample of “nays”:

“His career numbers are similar to those of Pettitte, but 13 of his 16 years were spent in the AL Central and NL East, making the degree of difficulty of his career vastly different. Baseball Prospectus factors quality of opposing hitters into its DRA stat (Deserved Run Average). Pettitte’s DRA was 19 percent better than league average for his career. Buerhle was just 6 percent better.”

— Alex Speier, Boston Globe, (Jan. 10, 2023)

“It would be inaccurate to say that there aren’t any pitchers with S-JAWS similar to or lower than Buehrle in the Hall, but the ones who are there were either exceptional in ways not captured by WAR, or were small-committee choices that haven’t aged particularly well. Even given the dearth of recent stating pitchers in the Hall, I don’t see enough basis to flip from a no to a yes on Buehrle.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Dec. 15, 2022)

Conclusion

Given that the 2023 ballot was fairly weak (thanks to five players dropping off the 2022 ballot), I gave Mark Buehrle the nod as one of my ten “virtual” selections. He was perilously close to dropping below 5% a year ago (getting 5.8%). His case is strong enough that he deserves to remain eligible for the next seven years. I plan to make room for him again on my 2024 virtual ballot.

My conditional “yes” is because I would like to see Buehrle remain on the ballot for his full ten years so that we can evaluate the Cooperstown progress of today’s active pitchers (the ones not named Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, or Greinke). It may be that we all wake up on New Year’s Day in 2030 and realize that Buehrle was one of the ten best starting pitchers in the first quarter of the 21st century. He never seemed like a Hall of Famer, but the volume of his work is compelling.

To finish with an example of a pitcher who was similar to Buehrle, let’s remember that Jim Kaat was inducted into the Hall of Fame in the summer of 2022. Like Buehrle, Kaat worked quickly and was a terrific fielding pitcher. He was rarely dominant, but he was consistent and durable. Because he finished with “only” 283 wins in an era in which many starting pitchers posted 300 or more victories, it took Kaat decades to make it to Cooperstown. When asked about what made him worthy of the honor, Kaat said that the committee that elected him clearly valued “durability.”

That may ultimately be Mark Buehrle’s story as well. The members of a future Eras Committee may be impressed with all of his seasons with 200+ innings and the two no-hitters. As an old-school pitcher in an analytics-driven 21st-century game, those committee members might smile upon his candidacy and decide that Buehrle is worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown.

Thanks for reading.

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