Davey Johnson’s Managerial Career and Cooperstown Credentials

For the third time in four years, Davey Johnson is on a ballot for the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York. The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee for Managers/Executives/Umpires, the modern version of the Veterans Committee, will vote on 8 candidates for the Hall of Fame in early December at the MLB Winter Meetings in Nashville.

Johnson, who also had a productive playing career (mostly with the Baltimore Orioles and Atlanta Braves), managed four different teams to the playoffs, making six appearances in postseason ball overall. He’s best known as the skipper of the 1986 New York Mets, who won 108 regular season games and then prevailed in a 7-game thriller in the World Series against the Boston Red Sox.

The Contemporary Baseball Committee will convene a panel of 16 media members, executives, and Hall of Famers, who will examine the Cooperstown resumes for Johnson and the other 7 candidates, all of whom had careers as managers, executives, or umpires. The other seven men on the ballot are managers Lou Piniella, Jim Leyland, and Cito Gaston, player/broadcaster/executive Bill White, former General Manager Hank Peters, and two umps (Ed Montague and Joe West).

Among the managers, Johnson and Piniella were also on the 2019 Today’s Game ballot. Piniella received 11 votes that year (one shy of the 12 needed for a plaque in Cooperstown), Johnson less than 5. That means that Davey got anywhere from between 0 and 4 votes. This is the Hall’s way of not embarrassing anybody.

The 2019 ballot contained two players who were elected overwhelmingly, Harold Baines and Lee Smith. The Hall decided to create a new Era Committee rotation, separating players from non-players. Given the fact that Dusty Baker, Bruce Bochy, and Terry Francona may be on the next ballot of this kind (in December 2026), that means that this year might be the best chance Johnson will have at a Cooperstown plaque.

It doesn’t bode well for Johnson, however, that he was also on the Veterans Committee ballots in 2008, 2010, and 2017 and got no reported support. Three other managers (Whitey Herzog, Dick Williams, and Billy Southworth) were inducted in those two years.

Cooperstown Cred: Davey Johnson

• As a manager: New York Mets (1984-90), Cincinnati Reds (1993-95), Baltimore Orioles (1996-97), Los Angeles Dodgers (1999-2000), Washington Nationals (2011-2013)
• 13-year career as a player: .261 BA, 136 HR, 609 RBI
• Won 2 World Series with the Baltimore Orioles
• 4-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• Hit 43 home runs in 1973 with Atlanta, most single-season HR ever for a 2nd baseman
• Career as manager: 1,372-1,071 (.562)
• .562 winning percentage: 10th best all-time for managers with over 1,000 career wins (behind 9 Hall of Famers)
• Won the 1986 World Series with the New York Mets
• 2-time Manager of the Year (Orioles 1997 & Nationals 2012)

(cover photo: Jeff Marquis/Flickr)

Before tackling the topic of whether or not Johnson should be in the Hall of Fame, let’s take a tour of his playing and managerial career.

Davey Johnson’s Playing Career

David Allen Johnson was born on January 30, 1943, in Orlando, Florida. He went to high school in San Antonio and briefly attended Texas A&M before signing with the Baltimore Orioles.

At the age of 22, Johnson made his major league debut with the Orioles in 1965 but wound up spending most of that season in the minors. His official rookie year was in 1966 when he started 125 games as the team’s second baseman.

The ’66 Orioles (under manager Hank Bauer) featured three future Hall of Famers (Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, and 20-year-old Jim Palmer). They won the A.L. Pennant and swept the Los Angeles Dodgers in the World Series. Palmer pitched a Game 2 shutout, beating Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax in what would be the final start of the great lefty’s career. Johnson, with a sixth-inning single, has the distinction of getting the last hit ever given up by Koufax.

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Playing with Earl Weaver’s Orioles

The Orioles of 1969 were managed by Earl Weaver and were a juggernaut, winning 109 regular season games. Johnson had established himself as a top-flight defensive second baseman and won his first Gold Glove Award. His was one of four Gold Gloves on the O’s, with third baseman Robinson, shortstop Mark Belanger, and center fielder Paul Blair winning the others.

After sweeping the Minnesota Twins in the first-ever American League Championship Series, the O’s were matched up in the World Series against the Miracle New York Mets, who beat them in 5 games. Johnson went just 1 for 16 (.063) in the ’69 Fall Classic and made the last out of the series by flying out to left field.

In 1970, the O’s won 108 games in the regular season. They swept the Twins again in the ALCS and then beat the Cincinnati Reds in 5 games in the World Series. Johnson hit .333 with 2 HR, 6 RBI, and a 1.100 OPS in the ’70 playoffs.

The 1971 Orioles won 101 games and swept the Oakland Athletics in the ALCS but fell in the Fall Classic to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 7 games. After a solid LCS, Johnson had a miserable World Series with the bat, hitting just .148 (4 for 27). In Game 7, trailing 2-1 in the 8th inning, Johnson stranded the tying runner on 3rd base by grounding out to end the inning.

Johnson, battling injuries, struggled with a .221 batting average in 1972. With Bobby Grich emerging as a star, the O’s decided to trade Davey to the Atlanta Braves after the season.

Record-Setting Season in Atlanta

Davey Johnson had an out-of-the-blue career year with the 1973 Atlanta Braves. Taking advantage of his new home ballpark, Atlanta Fulton-County Stadium (the “launching pad”), Johnson walloped 43 home runs, 25 more than his previous career high. 26 of those 43 taters were in Atlanta and 42 of them came when he was playing 2nd base (the other as a pinch-hitter). The 42 HR as a second sacker remains the most ever for a player at that position.

Johnson was part of a trio of Braves hitters to hit 40 or more taters, the others being Hank Aaron and Darrell Evans. Johnson said that Aaron helped to make him a better hitter, but Hank wouldn’t take credit. Johnson has had the bragging rights for decades that, in his first season in Atlanta, he hit more home runs than the great Aaron.

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1974, incidentally, was the season that Aaron was in pursuit of Babe Ruth’s all-time home run record. He finished the season with 40 taters, which put him one shy of 714.

On Opening Day 1974 (in Cincinnati), Johnson was batting 6th (behind Aaron and Dusty Baker) when the Hammer clubbed his 714th career homer. The same was true, four days later, when Aaron swatted #715.

After a lackluster ’74 campaign (.251 BA, 15 HR, 62 RBI), Johnson played in Japan in 1975 and ’76. He returned to the U.S. in 1977 and finished his career as a utility player for the Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs in ’77 and ’78. While with the Phillies in ’78, Davey became the first player in MLB history to hit two pinch-hit grand slams in the same season.

Johnson decided to retire after the ’78 season.

Renaissance Man

Davey Johnson, after retiring as a player, earned a mathematics degree from Trinity College in San Antonio. From his SABR bio, Johnson continued to learn new things while playing and after playing baseball. Besides his studies, Johnson became a licensed pilot, a scratch golfer, a talented fisherman, and a scuba instructor.

While Johnson was with the Orioles, he took graduate classes at Johns Hopkins University and became adroit at using a computer long before most people had one. As Jay Jaffe noted in his Fan Graphs profile of Johnson, Johnson persuaded Orioles owner Jerry Hoffberger to let him use the IBM mainframe of the National Brewery (of which Hoffberger was the chairman). It was through these studies that Johnson learned the value of on-base percentage, years before Bill James educated us about the subject.

Johnson was hired to manage the Miami Amigos in the Inter-American League in 1979 and the AA Jackson Mets in 1981 before getting the job with the Tidewater Tides in 1983. The Tides were the longtime AAA affiliate of the New York Mets.

Davey Johnson’s New York Mets Years

Joining the New York Mets in 1984

The 1983 Mets, under George Bamberger and Frank Howard, won just 68 games but showed signs of being a better club in the future. 21-year-old right fielder Darryl Strawberry was the N.L. Rookie of the Year. In a June trade that re-shaped the franchise, General Manager Frank Cashen “stole” first baseman Keith Hernandez (who should be in the Hall of Fame) from the St. Louis Cardinals for pitchers Neil Allen and Rick Ownbey.

Davey Johnson, having impressed Cashen in one season in AAA, was named the New York Mets manager for the 1984 season. Cashen, incidentally, was the G.M. of the Orioles when Johnson played in Baltimore and had noticed the second baseman’s intellect at the time.

Johnson’s best move in re-shaping the ’84 Mets was to convince Cashen to promote 19-year-old Dwight Gooden to the Major Leagues, bypassing both AA and AAA. Doctor K would reward his manager’s faith by going 17-9 with a 2.60 ERA and a 20th-century rookie record of 276 strikeouts.

With full seasons from Hernandez and Strawberry plus improved performances from returning starters Hubie Brooks (3B), George Foster (LF), and Mookie Wilson (CF), the ’84 Mets offense was significantly improved from the ’83 version. Johnson also followed in Weaver’s footsteps by platooning where needed, fashioning a useful second base combo with Wally Backman and Kelvin Chapman, both of whom played for Johnson at Tidewater and were decent on-base% guys.

Under Johnson’s leadership, the Mets improved from 68 wins in ’83 to 90 wins in ’84. To the degree that a manager can get more out of his team than the sum of its parts, Johnson managed a 90-72 record despite the team being outscored by 24 runs. By the Pythagorean winning percentage, the Mets should have won 78 games instead of 90.

The 1985 Mets

In the off-season between 1984 and 1985, Cashen acquired 7-time All-Star catcher Gary Carter in a four-for-one deal with the Montreal Expos. With Carter and Hernandez, Johnson now had two on-field leaders to complement his leadership from the dugout. With Carter behind the dish, Gooden had an all-time great season (24-4, 1.53) while #2 and #3 starters Ron Darling and Sid Fernandez emerged as stars themselves.

The Mets were in a pennant race all year long with Whitey Herzog’s St. Louis Cardinals, winning 98 games to the Redbirds’ 101.

1986: World Champion New York Mets

Davey Johnson’s Mets were favored to win the N.L. East in 1986 even though they had finished second the year before. The Mets were incredibly deep offensively, with only one hole in the lineup (shortstop Rafael Santana). Santana hit so poorly in ’86 (.218 BA/.285 OBP/.254 SLG) that Johnson experimented by playing natural third basemen Howard Johnson and Kevin Mitchell at shortstop.

During the season, the 37-year-old Foster was traded to make room for a Mitchell/Mookie platoon in left field. Johnson platooned there and (still) at 2nd base with Backman and off-season acquisition Tim Teufel. All told, the Mets had 10 position players with at least 200 plate appearances and an OPS+ of 113 or better. The pitching staff, already top-flight, added another ace-level starter with Bob Ojeda.

The Mets won 108 games during the regular season but did anything but dominate in the postseason. Both the 6-game series win in the NLCS over the Houston Astros and the 7-game series win in the World Series over the Boston Red Sox were all-time classics.

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1987: Hangover from ’86 and an Injury-filled Lost Season

As a Mets fan celebrating the team’s first World Series title since I was two years old in ’69, I thought that team would deliver another one or two titles. It never happened.

In 1987, an early season rehab stint for Gooden and a litany of injuries to the pitching staff led to a slow start. The team was just 44-40 after 84 games and were 10.5 games behind the division-leading Cardinals. At the All-Star break, journeyman Terry Leach had been the Mets’ best starter. The offense, however, led by Strawberry and new full-time third baseman Johnson, was still the best in the league. Straw and HoJo became the first teammates ever to each hit 30 home runs with 30 stolen bases.

The Mets came back strong in the second half of the year, pulling to within 1.5 games of the Cards before falling three games short with a 92-70 record.

1988: Back on top of the East

In 1988, the Mets romped to their second division title in three years, winning 100 games, putting them 15 games ahead of 2nd place Pittsburgh. Second-year starter David Cone became a star, going 20-3 with a 2.22 ERA. Strawberry continued to put up monster numbers and left fielder Kevin McReynolds (in his second season with the Mets) had 99 RBI with a 142 OPS+. Strawberry and McReynolds finished 2nd and 3rd in the MVP voting to Kirk Gibson of the N.L. West Champion Los Angeles Dodgers.

Going into the postseason, everyone expected an eventual World Series matchup between the mighty Mets and Tony La Russa’s 104-win Oakland Athletics. The biggest obstacle for the Mets was Orel Hershiser, who finished the regular season with 59 consecutive scoreless innings.

The Mets, however, managed to win two out of the first three games of the series, including Games 1 and 3 (which were both started by Hershiser). The entire trajectory of the series changed in the 9th inning of Game 4 when Mike Scioscia swatted a game-tying home run off Doc Gooden. The Dodgers would go on to win the game in 12 innings, with Hershiser coming out of the bullpen on zero days of rest to retire McReynolds with two outs and the bases loaded.

The Dodgers took two of the next three games to win the pennant.

Looking at that pivotal Game 4, that gut-wrenching loss was the turning point not only in the series but in the mini-dynasty that was the New York Mets in the 1980s.

Brief Aside: Should Johnson Have Pulled Doc Gooden in Game 4?

Before wrapping up the chronology of Davey Johnson’s managerial career, I feel compelled to take a closer look at Game 4 of the 1988 NLCS.

The question here is whether Johnson made a fatal error by sending Gooden back to the mound after having tossed 118 pitches through the first eight frames. To be fair, the maniacal attention paid to pitch counts was not, in 1988, remotely as it is today.

However, there was a precedent, during the regular season (on May 31st), in which Johnson sent Gooden out to start the 10th inning after having thrown 118 pitches, ironically against the Dodgers. After getting the first out (again ironically Scioscia), Doc gave up three straight hits, leading to two runs and what should have been a loss, except that his team bailed him out and won in 11.

So, now, let’s fast forward to the pivotal Game 4.

Gooden: 118 pitches through 8.

Mets: clinging to a 2-run lead.

Left-handed closer Randy Myers, who had a 1.72 ERA during the regular season, sitting in the bullpen.

The leadoff batter was John Shelby, a switch-hitter, who was a much weaker hitter against lefties than righties.

The second batter was Mike Scioscia, a left-handed hitter, also weaker against lefties.

Gooden walked Shelby on eight pitches (with an exceptionally wild ball four). Gooden now was at 126 pitches but Johnson left him in to face Scioscia and the rest is history. Scioscia was sitting on a fastball and Gooden gave him one.

I’ll be honest. I was sitting in the stands, expecting Gooden to finish the game and give the Mets a commanding 3 games to 1 series lead. And, I can’t remember exactly, but I don’t think the opening walk to Shelby had me yelling for Myers to come in at that moment either. After all, it was Dwight Gooden on the mound. However, this was not the ’85 version of Gooden. The ’88 version pitched into the 9th inning only 13 times (out of 34 starts) and only twice went beyond 126 pitches in the regular season.

Johnson himself has certainly been asked about the Scioscia-Gooden match-up for years.

“Doc was still throwing well. If anyone is upset with me for not taking out the best pitcher in baseball, that’s really an ignorant second-guesser.’’

— Davey Johnson, quoted in the New York Daily News (October 5, 2013)

Is it fair to dwell on that one decision? No. It’s not fair. Not fair at all. But it’s what happened. It was the pivotal game of a series that everyone expected the Mets to win. Johnson, a Hall of Fame candidate, managing against Lasorda, a future Hall of Fame inductee. Johnson has one World Series ring, and Lasorda has two. And it essentially came down to that one inning.

But I could just be a bitter Mets fan who drove 80 miles from college to see that game and remains scarred by the outcome.

1989-90: Davey Johnson’s Final Years in New York

For the first five years of Davey Johnson’s managerial career, the Mets won 90 or more games. No other manager had ever done that in their first five years as an MLB skipper.

The New York Mets regressed, however, in 1989, dropping to 87-75 for 2nd place in the N.L. East. Injuries limited the aging Hernandez and Carter to just 75 and 50 games respectively. Gooden missed two months with a shoulder injury.

In 1990, the Mets got off to a 20-22 start and Johnson was fired. The Mets would not return to the playoffs until 1999.

Cincinnati Reds: 1993-1995

After a few years away from the game, Davey Johnson was hired to manage the Cincinnati Reds in the middle of the 1993 season. The hiring wasn’t initially popular with the fans of the Reds. Johnson replaced Tony Perez, who was in his first year managing the team. Perez, one of the stars of the Big Red Machine in the 1970s, was canned after just 44 games (the team was 20-24).

In 1994, the Reds were leading the newly created N.L. Central (with a 68-46 record) when the players’ strike ended the season. In 1995, Johnson led the Reds to the N.L. Central title.

The ’95 Reds had a deep offense, led by future Hall of Famer Barry Larkin at shortstop and the highly productive corner outfield bats of Ron Gant and Reggie Sanders. Larkin was the N.L. MVP in ’95, with Sanders finishing 6th, Gant 11th. The ’95 season was shortened on the front end by the continuation of the ’94 strike. Still, it was a 144-game season and Johnson was able to lead the team to the division title despite only two pitchers (John Smiley and Pete Schourek) who tossed over 100 innings.

After sweeping the Los Angeles Dodgers in the first-ever N.L. Division Series, the Reds were swept in 4 games in the NLCS by the eventual World Champion Atlanta Braves.

As an employee, Johnson was not always the easiest man to get along with. He frequently clashed with team owner Marge Schott, who fired him after the ’95 season despite him having led the team to the NLCS.

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Baltimore Orioles: 1996-97

Shortly after being fired by the Reds, Davey Johnson was hired by the team he grew up with as a player, the Baltimore Orioles. The man who hired Johnson was new General Manager Pat Gillick (a future Hall of Famer as an executive); Gillick and Johnson had been teammates in the low minor leagues with the Orioles.

The Orioles were loaded offensively. Rafael Palmeiro was in his prime at first base. The O’s had a keystone combination of future Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Cal Ripken Jr. A mid-season trade brought 40-year-old designated hitter Eddie Murray back to Baltimore for a last hurrah in the city where he built his Cooperstown legacy.

1996 was the year in which center fielder Brady Anderson “pulled a Davey Johnson” by hitting 29 more home runs than he had ever hit before. Anderson’s 50 taters were the most on a team that had 7 hitters with 20 or more. The team’s 257 home runs were (at the time) the most by any club in MLB history.

On the mound, the Orioles were led by Mike Mussina and David Wells. In the bullpen were three of Davey’s former favorites from his Mets years: Randy Myers, Roger McDowell, and Jesse Orosco. Also in the ‘pen was a future Mets closer, 23-year-old Armando Benitez.

Because the team had an overall staff era of 5.14, the team won “only” 88 games despite all the home runs but those 88 wins were good enough for the A.L. Wild Card berth.

The ’96 Orioles won the ALDS, beating the defending A.L. Champion Cleveland Indians in 4 games. In the ALCS, however, the O’s fell in 5 games to Joe Torre’s New York Yankees.

The 1997 Orioles hit less but pitched much better and won the A.L. East with a 98-64 record. The O’s beat the Seattle Mariners in the ALDS but lost in the ALCS again, this time to the Indians. It was a tough loss for Davey and the Orioles; two of the losses in the 6-game series came in extra innings. All four losses were by a single run.

Incidentally, in Game 6 (an 11-inning loss), Mussina had pitched 8 scoreless innings (throwing 107 pitches) but Johnson brought in Myers to start the 9th.

As it was with Schott in Cincinnati, Johnson feuded with the team owner in Baltimore, Peter Angelos. After the 1997 season Johnson, who had not spoken to Angelos in six months, faxed a letter demanding either a contract extension or a buyout. Angelos considered the fax a sign of insubordination. He accepted the resignation on November 5, 1997, the same day that Johnson was named Manager of the Year.

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Los Angeles Dodgers: 1999-2000

After a year off, Davey Johnson was back in the dugout, managing the Los Angeles Dodgers. For the first and only time in his managerial career, Johnson’s first season did not improve upon the team’s previous campaign. The 1998 Dodgers (under Bill Russell and Glenn Hoffman) won 83 games. The ’99 Dodgers (under Johnson) won just 77.

The ’99 Dodgers had three big bats (Gary Sheffield, Raul Mondesi, and Eric Karros), a 20-year-old third baseman named Adrian Beltre, and a top-flight starter (Kevin Brown) but didn’t have much pitching depth behind their ace.

The Dodgers in 2000 were better (going 86-76) but not better enough. Johnson was let go after the season. This was the only team Johnson ever managed that he didn’t lead to the postseason.

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Washington Nationals: 2011-2013

After getting fired by the Dodgers, Davey Johnson spent over a decade before returning to an MLB dugout. He skippered the U.S. Olympic team in 2008 and the American team in the World Baseball Classic in 2009 while serving as an adviser to the Washington Nationals. During the decade away, Johnson appeared on two Veterans Committee Hall of Fame ballots without getting inducted into the Hall.

In the middle of the 2011 season, at the age of 68, Johnson was asked to take over the Nationals, replacing Jim Riggleman and interim skipper John McLaren. The Nats were 40-38 when Johnson took over the team. For the rest of the season, the team went 40-43.

Everything clicked for the Nationals in 2012. Left-handed starter Gio Gonzalez was acquired from the Athletics and Stephen Strasburg came back from Tommy John surgery to bolster the rotation. On the offensive side of the ball, first baseman Adam LaRoche had a career year, shortstop Ian Desmond emerged as a star, and a 19-year-old rookie Bryce Harper was an instant sensation and Rookie of the Year. The Nats won the N.L. East with a 98-64 record, best in all of MLB.

The Nationals were in the playoffs for the first time, matched up in the NLDS against the defending World Champion St. Louis Cardinals. In Game 5, the Nats roared out to a 6-0 lead after 3 innings. Still clinging to a 7-5 lead in the 9th, closer Drew Storen gave up four runs, losing the game 9-7 and the series.

In 2013, the Nats regressed to 86-76 and missed the playoffs. Johnson managed to the end of the season but it was apparent well before that he would not be invited back to manage in 2014. At the age of 70, Davey Johnson’s managerial career was over.

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The Hall of Fame Case for and Against Davey Johnson

As noted earlier, Davey Johnson is the only manager in baseball history to win 90 or more games in his first five years as an MLB skipper (although Dave Roberts certainly would have were it not for the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign). During those five years, the New York Mets won two division titles and one World Championship.

Johnson’s winning ways continued in his next four tours. His won-loss record was over .500 everywhere he went. Among the 64 managers who won at least 1,000 games, Johnson’s career .562 winning percentage is 10th best. That’s behind Joe McCarthy, Frank Selee, Billy Southworth, John McGraw, Al Lopez, Earl Weaver, Harry Wright, Cap Anson, and Fred Clarke, all of whom are in the Hall of Fame.

If you look at the modern game only (1901 and beyond), Johnson’s .562 WL% is the sixth best.

Johnson’s career tally puts him 301 games over the .500 mark. That’s the 17th most games over .500 for any manager ever. He’s behind the same 9 listed above plus Bobby Cox, Walter Alston, Tony La Russa, Sparky Anderson, Joe Torre, Dusty Baker, and Roberts.

The Bill James Managerial Ratings System

In February 2013, when Davey Johnson was beginning his final season with Washington, sabermetric pioneer Bill James published a three-part article on his website in which he created a system to rate all of the managers in MLB history. The purpose of the system was to establish benchmark numbers of the existing Hall of Fame managers and to use the system to determine which other not-enshrined managers deserved a plaque in Cooperstown.

This is what James wrote about the 30 active managers going into Spring Training 2013:

“Of the 30 major league managers, I would say that there are 13 who would seem to have some credibility as Hall of Fame candidates, although there is only one who I think is a fully qualified Hall of Famer at this point.  That one is Davey Johnson.”

— Bill James (www.billjamesonline.com), Feb. 20, 2013

In the James managerial rating system, 100 is the bar for a Hall of Fame manager. The system gives points for wins, for wins above .500, for postseason success, and for exceeding expectations. You can learn about the details of the points system in Part I of his series.

Anyway, James’ system gave Davey Johnson 108 points as of the spring of 2013. Based on my own Excel work (using James’ formulas), Johnson finished with 111 points when he was let go by the Nationals at the end of 2013.

James notes that Johnson’s teams exceeded expectations in 10 of his 17 seasons in the dugout, exceeding those expectations by 10 games or more in 8 of those campaigns. It’s for this reason plus having a record of 301 games above .500 that Johnson scores well in the James system.

Are there any Hall of Fame Managers Below the 100-point Threshold?

According to the Bill James system, every manager whose career ended in the 19th or 20th centuries who reached the 100-point benchmark is in the Hall of Fame with the exception of Billy Martin. The fiery skipper scores exactly 100 points in the system.

By the numbers, James lists 6 managers who have Cooperstown plaques who are below the 100-point bar: Dick Williams (97), Bucky Harris (95), Ned Hanlon (92), Whitey Herzog (88), Harry Wright (68) and Wilbert Robinson (58).

James referred to Robinson’s induction as “capricious” and Wright as a special case deserving of a little “extra credit for inventing professional baseball.”

Davey Johnson, Whitey Herzog, and Dick Williams

The presence of Herzog and Williams on this list is germane because each was elected on a Veterans Committee ballot in which Johnson was also a candidate. Herzog was inducted into the Hall in 2008. Williams was a part of the Class of 2010, along with Billy Southworth (102 points). Remember, at the time Davey Johnson was considered “retired” because he had last managed in 2000 with the Dodgers.

It should be noted that Johnson enhanced his Hall of Fame credentials after those 2008 and 2010 votes. By taking the Nationals from an 80-win team in 2011 to a 98-win team in 2012, Johnson increased his James point tally from 95 to 108 points. His final campaign (in 2013) raised the total to 111. The reason I mention this is that, at the time they were considered, Williams had a superior point total and Herzog’s wasn’t far off. And, of course, James hadn’t invented the system yet!

It was entirely reasonable for the voters to have picked Herzog over Davey in ’08 and Williams over him in ’10. Herzog won one World Series and three pennants, not to mention three straight A.L. West titles with the Royals in the 1970’s. Williams won two World Series titles and four pennants.

Johnson has the lone 1986 World Series title compared to the combined 7 pennants of the others.

As an aside, the 2008 and 2010 ballots featured only managers and umpires. I am glad to see that the Hall of Fame has gone back to that system. It’s much easier to compare the Cooperstown candidacies of managers to other managers rather than having to compare managers to players, as the committees had to do the last two times Johnson was on the ballot.

How Does the James System Rate Current or Recently Retired Managers?

Based on the formulas James posted on his website in 2013, I was able to plug in the records of about a dozen current and recently retired skippers to see who’s cleared his bar of 100 and who is close. I’ve highlighted Johnson, Lou Piniella, Jim Leyland, and Gaston, who are also on the 2024 Contemporary Baseball ballot.

I think the results might surprise you.

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Based on these numbers, Davey is the best managerial candidate on this ballot, while Baker will be a shoo-in once eligible (likely in December 2026, unless he un-retires again). Terry Francona, who has stepped down as the skipper of the Cleveland Guardians, looks like an exceedingly likely Hall of Famer when he’s on one of these ballots for the first time (again, likely in 2026).

Bochy scores lower than Johnson in this system, a result of managing many bad teams in San Diego, giving him an under-.500 career managerial record in the regular season. However, his four World Series titles, including the most recent one with the Texas Rangers, make him a lock for Cooperstown.

I was surprised to see how well Mike Scioscia scores in this system. With the struggles of the Angels during the Mike Trout era, it’s easy to forget that Scioscia led them to the World Series title in 2002 and won six division titles in the years that followed.

As for Cito Gaston, he is clearly on this ballot on the strength of winning back-to-back World Series titles with the Toronto Blue Jays in 1992-93. Gaston only rates 40 points on the Bill James system, mostly because of a lack of longevity. He only won 894 games, the 75th most in MLB history.

Choosing between Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella, and Jim Leyland

Since Baker, Francona, Scioscia, and Bochy are not on this ballot, the merits of their Cooperstown resumes are not currently relevant. The Today’s Game ballot features Johnson, Piniella, Leyland, Gaston, Bill White, Hank Peters, Ed Montague, and Joe West.

Anybody on the 16-member committee is welcome to ignore White, Peters, and the umps, and vote for three managers. But, for the sake of argument, let’s say the choice is to select one name from between Johnson, Piniella, and Leyland.

First Jobs

Johnson and Piniella are true contemporaries. Both men were born in Florida in 1943 and are now 80 years old. As players, they were both key supporting cast members of teams that won two World Championships. Johnson and Piniella both got their first managerial jobs in New York City, Johnson with the Mets in 1984, and Piniella with the Yankees in 1986. Piniella’s cousin, Dave Magadan, was a corner infielder who played for Johnson from ’86 to ’90.

Leyland, born in Toledo, Ohio, is now 78 years old. He got his first job, with the Pittsburgh Pirates, in 1986, the same year as Piniella.

Between the three, Johnson and Leyland were clearly more prepared to be a manager than Piniella was when taking their respective first jobs. Leyland had managed for 11 seasons in the minor leagues and had been Tony LaRussa’s third-base coach with the Chicago White Sox.

As for Johnson, he also had managed in the minors (Piniella never did) and was an advanced thinker mathematically, a manager who used a computer and statistics before it was common.

Johnson, in the 1980s, understood little things about strategy that took decades to become part of mainstream thinking. His Mets’ teams rarely bunted; he didn’t order many pitch-outs or intentional walks and was reluctant to let his players attempt to steal 3rd base. In ’86 & ’87, Johnson ordered 33 fewer sacrifice bunts than Piniella did despite the fact that Piniella had a designated hitter in his lineups. Leyland ordered even fewer than Johnson (6 fewer), although those Pirates teams had a lot fewer runners on base than Johnson’s Mets squads.

Despite two years of winning records, Piniella only lasted those two years before being fired by Steinbrenner, only to be re-hired halfway through the ’88 season. And then King George fired him again.

Turnaround Specialists

It’s interesting that the second job for both Davey Johnson and Lou Piniella was with the Cincinnati Reds. Piniella won the World Series in his first season with the Reds (in 1990), which was the same year that Johnson was fired mid-season by the Mets. Leyland also won the World Series in the first season of his second managerial gig, with the Florida Marlins in 1997, while also winning a pennant with the Detroit Tigers in 2006, his first season with that squad.

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It should be noted here that, on two different occasions, Johnson took over teams in the middle of the year and did not improve on the performance of those who preceded him. With the Reds in 1993, Davey went 53-65 after Tony Perez had gone 20-24. In 2011 with Washington, Davey managed the Nationals to a 40-43 record after his predecessors had posted a 40-38 mark.

The dramatic improvements occurred in Johnson’s first full seasons with each club, when he was able to imprint his managing philosophy on the club from the beginning of Spring Training. It also helped that the ’94 Reds and ’12 Nats had better players (and better performances) than the teams had in the prior season.

There are other differences between Piniella, Johnson, and Leyland. Piniella’s and Leyland’s careers were longer (23 and 22 years respectively to Johnson’s 17) and thus they accumulated more total wins. Johnson’s winning percentage (.562) was better than Piniella’s (.517) but Davey never took over a truly awful team like the Devil Rays of the early 2000’s. Leyland’s career winning percentage (.496) is depressed by the post-Bonds years in Pittsburgh and the fire sale in Florida after the 1997 World Championship.

Johnson is the only of these skippers to never have truly bad teams, which is the number one reason why he scores best in the James system.

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Did Davey Johnson Actually Underachieve?

I’ll ask the same question of Davey Johnson that I asked about Lou Piniella when I wrote about him. Despite the turnarounds and the games over .500, did he underachieve based on the quality of the teams he had? As a rabid Mets fan in the 1980s, my gut instinct to that question is “yes” but the question deserves more scrutiny.

Johnson had four different squads that had the best regular season record in the league in which they played but only one of them advanced to the World Series.

Of course, as we know, the first of those four teams (the ’86 Mets) won the whole enchilada. We’ve also documented in excruciating detail how the ’88 Mets had the best record in the N.L. but fell to Tommy Lasorda’s Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS. With all the talent on those teams, the ’80s Mets rate an underachieve despite all the regular season wins.

The same cannot be said about Johnson’s three years with the Cincinnati Reds. The ’95 squad won their division and advanced to the NLCS. There’s no shame that they were swept by Bobby Cox’s Atlanta Braves, a team featuring five future Hall of Famers. What Johnson did with the Reds rates an overachieve.

As we saw earlier, the 1996 & 1997 Baltimore Orioles were loaded with Hall of Fame talent. Both teams made the postseason, advanced to the ALCS, and failed to get to the Fall Classic. The ’97 squad won 98 games, most in the American League.

In 1997, the O’s lost to the 86-win Cleveland Indians, despite a vastly superior pitching staff. As documented earlier, the team lost four one-run games in the ALCS, two of which went to extra innings. This would have to be rated as a slight underachieve.

The 1999-2000 Dodgers were a middle division team. Johnson neither elevated them nor brought them down. The grade is incomplete.

Then, of course, there’s the case of the 2012 Washington Nationals. Until 2019, the franchise significantly underachieved.

Considering that the Nats had never even had a winning season prior to 2012, it’s hard to call the 2012 squad an underachiever. Johnson won and deserved the N.L. Manager of the Year Award. The ’13 squad, however, which only won 86 games, was a significantly underachieving squad.

Final Verdict: Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella, or Jim Leyland?

This is a tough call for me. I’ve spent a lot of time pondering the question and it’s so very close. I’m inclined to lean to Piniella but Leyland has the added bonus of leading the USA to the World Baseball Classic title.

Leyland was never actually fired and, with the exception of his two firings by George Steinbrenner, Piniella switched jobs because he was looking for new challenges or because he wanted to be closer to home (as it was with Tampa Bay).

Johnson was fired by the Mets, Reds, and Dodgers, resigning from his other gigs with the Orioles and Nationals. As for the resignations, both were under duress. It’s likely in both cases that he would not have been allowed to return regardless of whether he resigned or not.

I have a hard time calling a manager who had four different jobs that lasted less than three full seasons a Hall of Fame manager. It’s fair to say that Marge Schott and Peter Angelos were not easy to work with but it doesn’t change the fact that Johnson wore out his welcome quickly in all four locations.

This is in addition to the very short rope that the Mets organization extended to their manager who had won 90 or more games for five straight seasons. After 87 wins in 1989 and a 20-22 start in 1990, he was dismissed from that job too. From a management perspective, the opinionated Johnson was not the easiest manager to deal with.

The closest Cooperstown-enshrined comparison I can think of to Johnson’s short-term nomadic travels is Dick Williams, who was unable to last five seasons at any of his six destinations. The difference is that Williams managed in four World Series, winning two of them (with the Oakland Athletics in 1972-73).

Conclusion

In 2014, three managers were elected to the Hall of Fame by what was then known as the “Expansion Committee.” Those skippers (Cox, Torre, and La Russa) were all obvious choices and each received 16 out of 16 votes. That made the voting process kind of silly in the sense that the committee members were only allowed to vote for 4 men and thus the other 7 candidates had to fight for those remaining 16 votes. Needless to say, the math was not in their favor.

As indicated earlier, this is Davey Johnson’s fifth time on a version of the Veterans Committee ballot. He’s gotten nowhere the first four times. On the most recent try, Piniella got 11 votes (out of 16) while Davey got “less than 5,” which could mean anything from 0 to 4. Leyland is on the ballot for the first time.

Johnson may rate slightly higher on the Bill James scale than Piniella and Leyland but Sweet Lou is more likely to make the Hall. Still, if Johnson somehow makes it, he has a resume worthy of the plaque it would be conferred upon.

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