The One-and-Dones on the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame Ballot: Part Two

In sixteen days, the final member (or members) of the 2026 class for the National Baseball Hall of Fame will be announced. Last month, Jeff Kent, the most prolific home run hitter as a second baseman in baseball history, was elected to the Hall by the Contemporary Baseball Era Committee.

On January 20th, the voting results of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) will be announced. Of the returning candidates, Carlos Beltran appears likely to clear the 75% minimum required to earn a plaque in Cooperstown. According to the first 123 votes reported on Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Andruw Jones has a good chance as well.

Beltran and Jones are two of the fifteen BBWAA candidates who were also on last year’s ballot. Joining them are twelve first-time candidates, highlighted by pitcher Cole Hamels and left fielder Ryan Braun. Based on Thibodaux’s tracker, Hamels will be back on the ballot for 2027. The other eleven candidates, including Braun, seem likely to fall below the 5% minimum required to remain on future ballots.

Earlier today, in Part One of my profiles of the expected one-and-done candidates for the Hall of Fame, I profiled first baseman Edwin Encarnacion, second baseman Daniel Murphy, second baseman Howie Kendrick, pitcher Rick Porcello, and pitcher Gio Gonzalez.

In these profiles, I’ll pay tribute to five of the outfielders who are first-time candidates for the Hall: Matt Kemp, Alex Gordon, Hunter Pence, Nick Markakis, and Shin-Soo Choo. To read more about Braun, the sixth outfielder, who is also a first-time candidate and who will almost certainly not be back on the 2027 ballot, please click here.

And now, tributes to five outfielders who had excellent careers, but not careers that will land them plaques in Cooperstown.

Cooperstown Cred: Matt Kemp (OF)

• Dodgers (2006-14), Padres (2015-16), Braves (2016-17), Dodgers (2018), Reds (2019), Rockies (2020)
• Career: .284 BA, .337 OBP, .484 SLG, 287 HR, 1,031 RBI, 1,808 Hits
• Career: 121 OPS+, 21.6 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 3-time All-Star, 2-time N.L. Gold Glove Award Winner, 2-time N.L. Silver Slugger
• Let all N.L. center fielders in assists three times
• 2011 N.L. MVP runner-up: .324 BA, 39 HR, 126 RBI, 115 Runs, 40 SB, 172 OPS+, 8.0 WAR

When Matt Kemp finished the 2011 campaign, he looked like a possible Hall of Famer in the making. It was a monster year; he led the National League in HR, RBI, Runs, WAR, and OPS+, and was second in slugging and stolen bases. Given his league-leading status in all of those categories, he probably deserved the MVP trophy, but finished 2nd to Ryan Braun, whose Milwaukee Brewers made the postseason while Kemp’s Los Angeles Dodgers stayed home.

Kemp was a 6th-round draft pick (out of high school) by the Dodgers in the 2003 amateur draft. He progressed through the minor leagues fairly quickly before making his MLB debut at age 21 in May 2006. He was sent back to AAA Las Vegas in both 2006 and 2007 before sticking in the big leagues for good in June 2007.

He improved year after year from 2007 to 2009, posting a 4.9 WAR in ’09 (with 26 HR, 101 RBI, and 34 SB), which earned him a 10th-place finish in the MVP vote, along with a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove. Playing for manager Joe Torre, he helped the Dodgers to back-to-back appearances in the NLCS; the Dodgers fell to the Philadelphia Phillies in both 2008 and ’09.

Kemp got off to a great start in 2010 (slashing .333/.405/.730 with 7 HR and 20 RBI in 15 games), but then slumped badly for the rest of the season. In the next 142 games, he slashed .237/.295/.392 with 16 HR and 57 RBI. Then he homered in the last five games to close out the season in style. Amazingly, he hit 12 of his 28 season home runs in the first 14 and last 5 games of the season. With a brutal range factor in center field, Kemp posted a negative WAR (-1.1).

Kemp’s terrible 2010 campaign made his near-MVP 2011 season all the more remarkable. Besides finishing 2nd in the MVP vote, he won the Hank Aaron Award for being the top hitter in the N.L. and was the Baseball America Player of the Year.

As discussed previously, in the offseason, after the MVP voting, it was revealed that Braun had tested positive for PEDs. MLB attempted to suspend him, but lost on appeal. According to the LA Times, “a survey of baseball writers revealed that if the MVP vote was retaken, with knowledge of Braun’s positive test, then Kemp would have won, and, as previously noted, he probably deserved the MVP anyway based on leading the league in so many offensive categories, with Braun leading only in slugging and raw (not-adjusted) OPS.

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After that monster campaign, Kemp was rewarded with an 8-year, $160 million contract extension, one that the Dodgers regretted, because he never came close to approaching that level of performance again.

Initially, Kemp justified the Dodgers’ faith in him. He was the N.L. Player of the Month in April (.419 BA, 12 HR, 25 RBI). He slumped a little bit but then suffered a hamstring injury, which caused him to miss most of the rest of the first half. He was decent after returning in July, but not the same player that he was in 2011. He also injured his knee and shoulder by crashing into the outfield wall at Coors Field. For the season, he hit .303 with 23 HR, 69 RBI, and only 9 SB (thanks to his hamstring woes).

Kemp suffered multiple injuries in 2013, limiting him to just 73 games with diminished production. He played in 150 games in 2014 but still wasn’t close to the form he showed in 2011. For the season, Kemp hit .287 with 25 homers and 89 RBI.

After nine years in Dodger Blue, Kemp was traded to the San Diego Padres. He stayed on the field for 150 games in 2015 and remained healthy in 2016, but was traded at the deadline to the Atlanta Braves. He remained with the Braves in 2017, but, by WAR, had the worst season of his career. His WAR was -1.3, thanks to woeful fielding metrics.

Kemp was traded back to the Dodgers in the offseason and had a decent campaign in 2018 (.290 BA, 21 HR, 85 RBI). He was traded to the Cincinnati Reds but only lasted 20 games in 2019 before being released. His career ended during the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, appearing in 43 games for the Colorado Rockies.

After 15 years in Major League Baseball, Matt Kemp had a .284 BA with 287 HR and 1,031 RBI. A nice career, but not a Hall of Fame career. His career WAR was 21.6 (low because of brutal defensive metrics in the year before and in the years after his near-MVP campaign). That means that, according to WAR, 37% of his entire career value came in that one season.

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Cooperstown Cred: Nick Markakis (RF)

• Baltimore Orioles (2006-14), Atlanta Braves (2015-20)
• Career: .288 BA, .357 OBP, .423 SLG, 189 HR, 1,046 RBI, 2,388 Hits
• Career: 109 OPS+, 33.7 WAR
• 2018 All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award Winner, 2018 N.L. Silver Slugger

Nick Markakis had a 15-year career in Major League Baseball, notable for his durability. The left-handed hitting Markakis was a solid defensive right fielder who hit well enough to maintain a regular presence in the lineup. He played at least 155 games in 11 of those 15 seasons. From 2007 to 2018, nobody played in more games than he did.

Markakis was drafted twice by the Cincinnati Reds without signing before getting tabbed as the 7th overall pick in the first round of the 2003 by the Baltimore Orioles.  Prior to making his debut in the major leagues, Markakis, who is of Greek and German descent, played for the Greek national baseball team in the 2004 Olympic Games in Athens, Greece.

Markakis was a mainstay in the Orioles lineup from 2006 to 2014. In 9 seasons, he averaged .290 with 16 HR, 73 RBI, and a 2.9 WAR, winning two Gold Gloves. A free agent after the 2014 campaign, he signed a four-year contract with the Atlanta Braves. In June 2015, he set the record for most errorless games in a row by an outfielder, only to commit a miscue seven days later to end the streak at 398 games.

Markakis had a mediocre 2017 campaign (.275 BA, 8 HR, 76 RBI, 0.9 WAR), but did collect his 2,000th career hit in early August. In the 2018 edition of the Bill James Handbook, the sabermetric pioneer’s “Favorite Toy” algorithm estimated that Markakis, with 2,052 hits in his 12-year career, had a 28% to finish his playing days with at least 3,000 hits. I’ll admit, I was gob-smacked when I saw that, because, for a player not linked to PEDs, 3,000 hits has always earned a player a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

The 34-year-old Markakis started the 2018 season in style with a walk-off home run. Those heroics sparked a marvellous first half in the 2018 campaign; he hit .333 with 10 HR and 61 RBI, earning him his first and only All-Star berth. Although I thought it was highly unlikely that Markakis would keep the long-term playing time that he would need to reach 3,000 hits, it wasn’t an impossibility. Markakis sagged in the second half ot the year (.258 BA, 4 HR, 32 RBI), but his superb first half was good enough to earn him his first Silver Slugger and third Gold Glove.

Unfortunately for the Braves and Markakis, he was hit by a pitch on July 26, 2019, causing him to go on the disabled list for only the second time in his career. Markakis missed 45 games and finished the season with a 0.8 WAR.

Markakis initially opted out of the 2020 COVID-shortened campaign, but returned to play in 37 games, posting a -0.2 WAR. He announced his retirement on March 12, 2021, ending his 15-year career with 2,388 hits. That’s tied for the 5th-most (with Jose Altuve) in the past 20 years, behind Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Freddie Freeman, and Albert Pujols, despite not playing from 2021-25.

Additionally, Markakis had the second most hits and doubles in all of baseball from 2007 to 2018, his peak seasons. Only Cano, twice suspended for using PEDs (performance-enhancing drugs), had more.

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Markakis played in at least 155 games in eleven of those twelve seasons, and played in 160+ in seven of those campaigns. His durability and consistency were an asset for the Orioles and Braves teams that he played for, but that’s not enough to make him a Hall of Famer.

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Cooperstown Cred: Alex Gordon (LF)

• Kansas City Royals (2007-2020)
• Career: .257 BA, .338 OBP, .410 SLG, 190 HR, 749 RBI, 1,643 Hits
• Career: 102 OPS+, 34.9 WAR
• 3-time All-Star, 8-time A.L. Gold Glove Award Winner
• Member of the 2015 World Series Champion Kansas City Royals

Alex Gordon, as a college junior, was one of the top prospects in baseball. Gordon attended the University of Nebraska-Lincoln and, in 2005, his junior year, swept the collegiate baseball awards for college baseball player of the year. During three years in college, Gordon posted a .355 career batting average. The Kansas City Royals, the team he rooted for as a kid, picked Gordon with the second overall pick in the 2005 amateur draft, behind Justin Upton.

The left-handed-hitting Gordon was Baseball America’s Minor League Player of the Year in 2006 (hitting .325 with 29 HR and 101 RBI at AA Wichita) and was the Royals’ Opening Day third baseman in 2007, with premature comparisons to Hall of Famer George Brett regarding Gordon’s future. Gordon’s college and minor league hitting prowess, however, did not translate to the major leagues. From 2007-10, Gordon averaged .244 with a .327 OBP and .405 SLG, accumulating a total WAR of 4.6. He spent parts of the 2009 & 2010 campaigns back in the minors. In 2010, he hit just .215 with a -0.5 WAR.

Everything changed for Gordon in 2011, his age 27 season, when he had a breakout season, thanks to a swing overhaul with hitting coach Kevin Seitzer. Playing full-time in left field now, Gordon hit .303 with 23 HR, 87 RBI, 101 Runs, and a 7.3 WAR. His superb defense earned Gordon the first of eight Gold Gloves. He excelled again in 2012, hitting .294 with 14 HR, 72 RBI, 93 Runs, 51 doubles (the most in MLB) with a 7.3 WAR.

Gordon made his first of three consecutive All-Star teams in 2013 (posting a 4.1 WAR), and followed that up with a 6.1 WAR campaign in 2014, a season in which the Royals ended a 29-year postseason drought. The Royals defeated the Oakland A’s in 12 innings in the Wild Card game, and then swept the Los Angeles Angels in the ALDS, setting up an ALCS matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. Game 1 (at Oriole Park at Camden Yards) was tied at 5 after nine innings. Gordon led off the top of the 10th with a go-ahead solo HR, leading the Royals to a 8-6 victory; the Royals went on to sweep the Orioles in four games.

In the World Series against the San Francisco Giants, Gordon’s bat was quiet (hitting .185 in seven games). However, with the Royals trailing 3-2 with two outs in the top of the 9th, Gordon hit a drive to left-center field off Madison Bumgarner that was misplayed by center fielder Gregor Blanco, putting Gordon on third base as the tying run. Bumgarner, however, got Salvador Perez to pop out to third base, ending the game and the series.

Gordon’s 2015 campaign was marred by a groin injury, causing him to miss nearly two months. For the season, he hit .271 with 13 HR, 48 RBI, and a 2.5 WAR in 104 games. Kansas City returned to the postseason, this time as the A.L. Central Division champs. The Royals defeated the Houston Astros in the ALDS and the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS, putting them back in the Fall Classic, this time against the New York Mets.

In Game 1 at Kauffman Stadium, the Mets were leading 4-3 in the bottom of the 9th, but Gordon hit a one-out, game-tying solo home run over the center field wall, off Mets’ closer Jeurys Familia, sending the game to extra frames. The Royals prevailed in 14 innings and won Game 5 at Citi Field in 12 innings to win their first World Championship since 1985.

The Royals would not return to the postseason for the final four years of Gordon’s career. He was the A.L. Gold Glove left fielder all four seasons, but his offense declined (slashing .238/.320/.357 from 2017-20). Despite fielding metrics that remained strong, Gordon only logged a 3.2 WAR from 2017-20, thanks to an 82 OPS+. In September 2020, the 36-year-old Gordon retired from Major League Baseball.

Gordon’s career WAR (34.9) is based on his superb fielding. He led American League left fielders in putouts five times, and in putouts and double plays turned three times. Among all left fielders in baseball history (minimum 50% games played in left), he ranks fourth in “runs above fielding” (Rfield, the fielding component of WAR) and third in “total zone runs.”

Note: the “total zone runs” data is limited to 1953 and beyond.

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Overall, including with the bat and on the bases, for four fabulous years (2011-14), Alex Gordon resembled the Hall of Famer that he was expected to be. His 23.8 WAR for those four years was the 6th best in all of baseball for position players, behind only Mike Trout, Miguel Cabrera, Robinson Cano, Andrew McCutchen, and Adrian Beltre. However, his 11.2 WAR for the other ten years of his career put him far outside Coopertown.

However, having spent his entire 14-year career in Kansas City, Gordon was inducted into the Royals Hall of Fame in 2024.

For a more complete bio and analysis of Gordon’s career, I recommend Jay Jaffe’s piece on FanGraphs.

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Cooperstown Cred: Hunter Pence (RF)

• Astros (2007-11), Phillies (2011-12), Giants (2012-18), Rangers (2019), Giants (2020)
• Career: .279 BA, .334 OBP, .461 SLG, 244 HR, 942 RBI, 1,791 Hits
• Career: 114 OPS+, 30.9 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• Member of the 2012 and 2014 World Series Champion San Francisco Giants

Like Nick Markakis, Hunter Pence was a consistent and durable right fielder. From 2008-14, playing for the Astros, Phillies, and Giants, Pence averaged 158.6 games played per season, third most for those eight campaigns (behind Robinson Cano and Adrian Gonzalez).

A second-round draft pick in 2004, Pence debuted with the Houston Astros in 2007 and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting (he hit .322 with 17 HR, 69 RBI, and a 3.4 WAR).

Pence made his first All-Star team in 2009, and a few weeks after his second All-Star appearance (in 2011), he was traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, who were on their way to their fifth straight N.L. East title. For the first time since 2007, however, the Phillies did not advance to the NLCS, falling to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games in the NLDS, with Pence not offering much offensively (slashing .211/.286/.211).

The Phillies were out of contention in July 2012, so Pence was traded again, this time to the San Francisco Giants. In his first year with the Giants, Pence hit .219 in 59 regular-season games but drove in 45 runs, giving him a career-high of 104 RBI overall. The Giants won the N.L. West and went on to win the World Series, despite Pence slashing only .210/.231/.290 in 21 postseason games. His teammates, however, gave Pence credit for helping rally the squad in a pregame speech before Game 3 of the NLDS, with the team trailing two games to none.

Pence rebounded in 2013, playing in all 162 games; he hit .283 with 27 HR, 99 RBI, a 133 OPS+, and 3.8 WAR. The highlight of his year was with the glove, when he made a diving catch in the bottom of the 8th inning of a game in San Diego, preserving a no-hitter for Tim Lincecum. The Giants, however, continued their every-other-year trend and missed the playoffs. At the end of the season, Pence was rewarded with a five-year, $90 million contract extension.

In 2014, he played in all 162 games again, hitting .277 with 20 HR, 74 RBI, 106 Runs, a 125 OPS+, and 4.0 WAR, and made his third All-Star team. The Giants went back to the postseason and won the World Series for the third time in five years. This time, Pence was a major contributor, slashing .333/.405/.470 with a home run and eight RBI.

In 2015, Pence suffered a fractured left forearm during spring training, causing him to start the regular season on the disabled list, which ended his streak of playing in 383 consecutive games. He wound up only playing in 52 games all year, thanks to two additional trips to the DL. The Giants continued their every-other-year trend and missed the postseason.

After being one of the most durable players in baseball from 2008 to 2014, the last six years of his career involved trips to the DL. He played in 106 games in 2016, 134 in 2017, only 97 in 2018, and 83 in 2019 (with the Texas Rangers). In the time that he was on the field with Texas, however, he was productive (.297 BA, 18 HR, 59 RBI), making his fourth and final All-Star squad as the starting designated hitter for the American League.

The 37-year-old Pence re-signed with San Francisco for the 2020 campaign, which was shortened to 60 games due to COVID-19. After hitting only .096 in 17 games, he was released. He officially announced his retirement on September 26.

Hunter Pence was one of the most popular players on a Giants team that won a pair of World Series championships while he was on it. He had a good career, but, of course, is not a Hall of Famer.

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Cooperstown Cred: Shin Soo-Choo (RF)

• Mariners (2005-06), Indians (2007-12), Reds (2013), Rangers (2014-20)
• Career: .275 BA, .377 OBP, .447 SLG, 218 HR, 782 RBI, 1,671 Hits
• Career: 122 OPS+, 34.7 WAR
• 2018 A.L. All-Star

When I went onto Shin-Soo Choo’s page on Baseball Reference, I was surprised to see that his career WAR was 34.7. That’s just slightly below some of the more decorated players on this BBWAA ballot (Edwin Encarnacion, Alex Gordon) and higher than several big-name position players from this century (Adam Jones, Kevin Youkilis, Justin Upton, Brian McCann, Jacoby Ellsbury, J.D. Martinez, Jose Abreu, Josh Hamilton, Justin Morneau, Prince Fielder, Ryan Howard, and many others).

Choo, born in Busan, South Korea, was the MVP and Best Pitcher when his native country won the WBSC U-18 (Under 18) Baseball World Cup in 2000. He signed a $1.35 million contract with the Seattle Mariners shortly after his 18th birthday and was converted to the outfield. After several years in the minor leagues, Choo made his MLB debut with the Mariners in April 2005.

Choo only appeared in 14 games in 2005-06 with the M’s before being traded to the Cleveland Indians in July 2006. Shortly after the trade, in his first game with the Indians, the left-handed hitting Choo hit his first MLB home run by taking former teammate Felix Hernandez deep. Choo appeared in only 51 games with the Indians in 2006-07, spending more time in the minors and also losing time due to injury. He underwent Tommy John surgery on his left elbow in September 2007.

Choo rejoined the Indians on May 31, 2008, and hit .309 with 14 HR and 66 RBI in 94 games, finally becoming a full-time MLB player a couple of months shy of his 26th birthday.

Playing full-time in right field, Choo’s best two years in the majors were in 2009 and 2010. He hit exactly .300 in both campaigns, hitting 20 HR with 86 RBI in 2009, and 22 HR with 90 RBI in 2010, with over 20 SB in both campaigns. His WAR was 5.5 in ’09 and 5.9 (a career-best) in ’10. Choo finished 14th in the MVP vote in 2010.

Choo played in only 85 games in 2011, losing time due to a fractured thumb when being hit by a pitch. He returned to play in 155 games in 2012, hitting .283 with 16 HR, 67 RBI, and 21 SB. The lower RBI total was a result of being used primarily as a leadoff hitter for the first time in his career.

The 30-year-old Choo was traded in December 2012 to the Cincinnati Reds in a three-team, nine-player trade that also involved the Arizona Diamondbacks. Reds manager Dusty Baker used Choo exclusively as the team’s leadoff hitter and center fielder, and, in 154 games, he hit .285 with 21 HR, 54 RBI, and 20 SB, while establishing career highs in runs (107) and walks (112). Choo was also hit a league-leading 26 times, yielding a career-high .423 on-base percentage, 2nd in the N.L. to his teammate Joey Votto.

The Reds, one of the league’s two Wild Card teams, lost to the Pittsburgh Pirates in the one-game playoff, with Choo hitting a solo home run in the losing effort. After the season, Choo was 12th in the N.L. MVP vote, and having averaged a 5.0 WAR per 162 games in the previous five seasons, free agent riches beckoned. At age 31, Choo was a career .288 hitter, with 26.0 WAR for his career and a strong 135 OPS+.

In December, Choo agreed to a seven-year, $130 million contract with the Texas Rangers, a deal that did not work out well for the Rangers. In 2014, Choo had the worst season of his career. Battling ankle injuries, he slashed a meager .242/.340/.374 (100 OPS+) in 123 games, with only 13 HR, 40 RBI, 58 Runs, and 3 SB, resulting in a 0.0 WAR.

Choo rebounded in 2015 (.276 BA, 22 HR, 84 RBI, 94 Runs, 3.3 WAR), helping the Rangers to 88 wins and the A.L. West title. The Rangers fell to the Toronto Blue Jays in five games in the ALDS, with Choo hitting a solo home run in the Game 5 losing effort.

Thanks to hamstring and back woes, Choo was limited to 48 games in 2016, before returning to play in an average of 149 games per season from 2017-19. Still, Choo did not play at the same high level as he had in Cleveland and Cincinnati. He averaged .263, with 22 HR and 67 RBI, but his OPS+ (108) was barely above average, and he averaged just 1.7 WAR per season.

He played in just 33 games in the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign, posting a 0.1 WAR at age 38. For their $130 million, in seven years, the Rangers got 8.6 WAR and a 109 OPS+ from Choo.

Choo’s MLB career was over, but he played for four more seasons for the SSG Landers in the KBO League in South Korea.

When he retired from Major League Baseball, Choo’s 218 career home runs were the most ever by a player born in Asia; that mark has since been passed by Shohei Ohtani.

At least one writer feels that Choo’s status as the greatest player ever from South Korea is worthy of a checkmark for the Hall of Fame.

“Choo had the best career of a player from Korea, and that shouldn’t be lost at a time when the voting-eligible bloc of the Baseball Writers Association of America gathers its thoughts and assigns checkmarks to players who have had the greatest impact on the national pastime…. Someday a player from Korea will make the Hall of Fame and will reference Choo as the countryman who paved the way. The pioneering aspect of his career is worthy of a checkmark on my Hall of Fame ballot,”

— Jeff Wilson, All DLLS (December 30, 2025)

If you extend Wilson’s logic, of course, you would open the floodgates to many other players, otherwise unworthy of the Hall of Fame, in the “best player from ______” category. Arguably the most notable player in that “best from” category, Fernando Valenzuela, the greatest player ever to hail from Mexico, was on the Era Committee ballot last month. The 16-member committee did not choose to endorse his candidacy, and virtually every BBWAA voter did not vote for Shin-Soo Choo for the Hall. Even so, Wilson’s point that Choo was a pioneer makes him an important figure in baseball history.

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