Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones are Elected to the Hall of Fame

This evening, Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones were elected to the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, New York. The 425 voting members of the Baseball Writers Association of America (BBWAA) elected Beltran with 84.2% of the vote, and Jones with 78.4%. Beltran and Jones will be joined on stage this July by Jeff Kent, who was elected last month by the Contemporary Baseball Player Era Committee. Beltran was elected in his fourth turn on the BBWAA ballot, while Jones was elected on his ninth appearance.

Beltran and Jones, both of whom spent the majority of their careers in centerfield, are just the third and fourth centerfielders to be elected to the Hall of Fame who made their Major League Baseball debuts since Mickey Mantle debuted in 1951. Kirby Puckett and Ken Griffey Jr. are the others. Andre Dawson is another centerfielder from the last fifty years who is in the Hall of Fame, but he made only 41.5% of his career starts in center.

Beltran, a nine-time All-Star and three-time Gold Glove Award winner, finished his 20-year career with 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 2,725 hits, and 312 SB. Among center fielders (who logged at least 50% of their games played in center), his 435 HR and 1,587 RBI are the fourth most in MLB history, behind all-time greats Willie Mays, Ken Griffey Jr., and Mickey Mantle. Additionally, he has the fourth most HR in baseball history for switch-hitters, behind Mantle, Eddie Murray, and Chipper Jones, and he has the third most RBI for switch-hitters, behind only Murray and Jones.

Additionally, Beltran is the sixth player from the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico to be elected to the Hall of Fame, joining Roberto Clemente, Orlando Cepeda, Roberto Alomar, Ivan Rodriguez, and Edgar Martinez (who was born in New York City but grew up in Puerto Rico).

Jones, with 434 career HR, has the fifth most career taters for center fielders. The first player born on the island of Curacao to make the Hall of Fame, Jones also won ten consecutive Gold Gloves in centerfield. Only Mays won more among center fielders, and only Mays and Roberto Clemente won more Gold among all outfielders. Jones, whose entire Hall of Fame case rests on those 434 career HR and ten Gold Gloves, is the first player to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA with fewer than 2,000 career hits since Ralph Kiner in 1975. Jones finished his 17-year MLB career with 1,933 hits.

Beltran and Jones are the 16th and 17th players born outside of the United States to be elected to the Hall of Fame by the BBWAA.

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Martinez is not listed here because he was born in New York. Also, Roberto Clemente (from Puerto Rico) was elected by a Special Election shortly after his untimely death in a plane crash

Other Vote-Getters on the 2026 BBWAA Ballot

As for the rest of the ballot, three players gained 19% or more from their vote share in 2025. Second baseman Chase Utley, possibly drafting on the election of Kent by the Era Committee last month, had a massive gain, going from 39.8% in 2025 to 59.1% this year.

With a few recent exceptions (Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Gary Sheffield, Curt Schilling, and Omar Vizquel), every player in the history of the BBWAA voting who has gotten over 50% eventually got elected to the Hall of Fame, so the results earned by Utley bode well for a future plaque in Cooperstown.

Pitchers Andy Pettitte and the Venezuelan-born Felix Hernandez also made massive gains. Pettitte surged from 27.9% in 2025 to 48.5% this year. Meanwhile, King Felix had the greatest single-season voting percentage increase since fellow Venezuelan Luis Aparicio, going from 20.6% one year ago to 46.1% today. Aparicio, the slick-fielding shortstop, surged from 41.9% in 1982 to 67.% in 1983. One year later, he became the first player from Venezuela to earn a plaque in Cooperstown.

Two of the greatest hitters of their generation (Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez) remain stuck in BBWAA quicksand. Both players were suspended for the use of Performance-enhancing Drugs (PEDs), making them a non-starter for the Hall for approximately two-thirds of the writers. A-Rod got 40.0% of the vote, with Manny getting 38.8% in his 10th and final year on the BBWAA ballot.

Only one first-time candidate (Cole Hamels) received enough votes to return to the 2027 BBWAA ballot. Hamels got 23.8% of the vote, a solid debut for a pitcher with only 163 career wins. The second-highest vote-getter among first-time candidates was Ryan Braun, who got 15 votes (3.5%), below the 5% minimum required to remain on future ballots.

Eight other players (Bobby Abreu, Dustin Pedroia, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Buehrle, David Wright, Omar Vizquel, Francisco Rodriguez, and Torii Hunter received between 5% and 30.8% of the vote, which means they’ll all be back on the ballot in 2027 but seem to have little chance to ever get to the 75% minimum needed for a Hall of Fame plaque during their ten years of eligibillity.

Here are the final results.

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Besides Braun, ten other first-time candidates fell below the 5% minimum threshold: Edwin Encarnacion, Hunter Pence, Shin-Soo Choo, Nick Markakis, Alex Gordon,  Matt Kemp, Daniel Murphy, Howie Kendrick, Rick Porcello, and Gio Gonzalez. The latter three (Murphy, Kendrick, and Gonzalez) did not get a single vote.

Here is a recap of the vote for each of the players who earned at least 5% of the vote. At the end of the piece, I’ll share a look-ahead to the 2027 through 2031 ballots.

Cooperstown Cred: Carlos Beltran (CF)

Elected to the Hall of Fame with 84.2% in his 4th year on the BBWAA ballot

• Royals (1998-2004), Astros (2004), Mets (2005-11), Giants (2011), Cardinals (2012-13), Yankees (2014-16), Rangers (2016), Astros (2017)
• Career: .279 BA, 435 HR, 1,587 RBI, 1,582 runs, 2,725 hits, 312 SB
• Career: 119 OPS+, 70.1 WAR
• 9-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove winner, 2-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Career post-season: .307 BA, .412 OBP, .609 SLG, 16 HR, 42 RBI in 256 PA
• 5th highest post-season OPS (1.021) in baseball history (min. 150 PA) (Ruth, Gehrig, Pujols, Brett)

Carlos Beltran has the fourth most home runs (435) and fourth most RBI (1,587) among all center fielders in baseball history. He stole 312 bases with a success rate (of 86.4%), which is the best in baseball history for players with at least 200 steals. He also has the fourth most HR and third most RBI for any switch-hitter in MLB history, and is just the 15th switch-hitting position player to earn a plaque in Cooperstown.

Beltran, in my view, served a three-year waiting penalty for his role in the 2017 Houston Astros sign-stealing scandal. He has now “done his time.” He’ll be on stage this summer as the headline act of the Hall’s Class of 2026.

With his election to the Hall, Beltran continued a long-time trend, dating back to 1991, of players who got between 70% (rounding up) and 74.9% crossing the finish line on the following ballot. It’s now 17 of the last 18 players who have done it, with Curt Schilling being the notable exception for reasons about his politics, not his excellence on the mound.

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Beltran, as a newly minted Hall of Famer, is the first player from the Houston Astros juggernaut of the late 2010s to earn a plaque in Cooperstown. In future years, he’ll be joined by Justin Verlander for sure, and possibly several others (Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Carlos Correa, and George Springer are possibilities). He’s the 12th former member of the Astros to make it to the Hall of Fame, with the recently-inducted Jeff Kent being one of those twelve.

Also, Beltran has become just the second player to start his career with the Kansas City Royals to make it to the Hall of Fame, the other being George Brett. In fact, he’s just the fifth player to ever wear a Royals uniform to make the Hall: Harmon Killebrew, Orlando Cepeda, and Gaylord Perry were with the Royals at the tail end of their Hall of Fame careers.

For more on Beltran’s Hall of Fame case, please click here.

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Cooperstown Cred: Andruw Jones (CF)

Elected to the Hall of Fame with 78.4% in his 9th year on the BBWAA ballot

• Braves (1996-’07), Dodgers (’08), Rangers (’09), White Sox (’10), Yankees (2011-12)
• Career: .254 BA, 434 HR, 1,289 RBI
• Career: 111 OPS+, 62.7 WAR
• 4th most HR all-time for center fielders (behind Mays, Griffey, Mantle, Beltran) (minimum 50% games played in CF)
• 5-time All-Star, 10-time Gold Glove Award winner

Andruw Jones had a very simple Hall of Fame case: 10 Gold Gloves and 434 home runs at a premium defensive position (center field). On the sabermetric side, the defensive metrics that go into WAR anoint him as the greatest defensive center fielder in baseball history. That elevator pitch clearly resonated with the writers, based on the amazing gains Jones has made since earning less than 8% of the vote in his first two turns on the ballot.

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Jones is the eighth member of the Atlanta Braves’ 1990s dynasty to make it to the Hall of Fame, joining Chipper Jones, Fred McGriff, Tom Glavine, Greg Maddux, John Smoltz, manager Bobby Cox, and General Manager John Schuerholz, although he is the lone member of that sextet who was not on the 1995 World Series Champion team. Jones made a huge first impression as a rookie in 1996, hitting two home runs at Yankee Stadium in Game 1 of the World Series, which the Braves would eventually lose.

Jones, who got just 7.3% of the vote in his first turn on the BBWAA ballot, now has the distinction of having the lowest first-year vote tally in the last 65 years for a player who was eventually elected to the Hall by the writers.

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That 2018 ballot was jam-packed, making it hard for writers to find space with the 10-player maximum. Four players were elected to the Hall of Fame that year (Chipper, Vladimir Guerrero, Jim Thome, and Trevor Hoffman), with six others who would make the Hall in future years (Mike Mussina, Edgar Martinez, Larry Walker, Fred McGriff, Scott Rolen, Billy Wagner, and Jeff Kent). Additionally, Jones was also competing for ballot space with Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Curt Schilling, Manny Ramirez, Gary Sheffield, Sammy Sosa, and Omar Vizquel.

You have to go all the way back to 1960 to find a future BBWAA-elected Hall of Famer with a smaller vote share than Jones got in 2018. In 1960, Ralph Kiner got just 1.1% of the vote on a ballot that had a whopping 35 other players who would eventually make the Hall.

For more on Andruw Jones, including a deep dive on his otherworldly defensive metrics, I invite you to take a look at this piece.

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More than 45% but Less than 75%

Three players on the 2026 BBWAA ballot earned more than 45% but less than 75%. In most elections, a majority win rules, but not when it comes to the Baseball Hall of Fame. Chase Utley (59.1%), Andy Pettitte (48.5%), and Felix Hernandez (46.1%) all made massive gains from 2025 to 2026.

As previously noted, in the entire history of voting, almost every player who has gotten 50% or more on the writer’s ballot has eventually made it to Cooperstown, either via a subsequent BBWAA election or through one of the various versions of what is now known as the Era Committee (formerly the Veterans Committee).

Though Pettitte and King Felix didn’t quite get to 50% this year, there is generally momentum to the BBWAA vote, so you can expect both pitchers to eclipse 50% next year. Given that Hernandez has only been on the ballot for two years, he’s got eight more years to climb to 75%. For Pettitte, the challenge will be much greater. Besides the taint of his admitted HGH (Human Growth Hormone) use, he only has two more turns on the ballot.

As for Utley, with another relatively light class of first-time candidates for the 2027 ballot, it’s possible he’ll zoom all the way to 75% one year from now. But, either way, it’s a near certainty that he has a Cooperstown plaque in his future.

What’s remarkable about this ballot is that King Felix, Pettitte, and Utley realized three of the nine biggest ballot year-to-year ballot gains since 1984 (as previously noted, Luis Aparicio had a 25.5% ballot gain from 1982 to 1983).

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Chase Utley – 2B (59.1% in his 3rd year on the BBWAA ballot)

• Philadelphia Phillies (2003-15), Los Angeles Dodgers (2015-18)
• Career: 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, .275 BA, .358 OBP, .465 SLG
• Career: 117 OPS+, 64.5 WAR
• Career: 154 SB (87.5% success rate, best all-time MLB with min 100 SB)
• 6-time All-Star, 4-time Silver Slugger Award winner
• Member of the 2008 World Series Champion Philadelphia Phillies
• Hit five home runs in the 2009 World Series

After debuting on the 2025 ballot with 28.8% of the vote, Chase Utley had a nice bump to 39.8% one year ago and surged to 59.1% this year. That’s still a bit disappointing for his supporters, given that he was sitting at 69.0% on the pre-announcement ballots, as recorded by Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker.

Generally speaking, the writers who choose to keep their votes private are a bit stingier and a bit more “old school,” relying on traditional counting statistics, while the writers who share their ballots publicly are more likely to rely on sabermetrics. Utley’s case relies on extraordinary defensive metrics, which gave him a 64.5 career WAR. His traditional stats (.275 BA, 259 HR, 1,025 RBI, 1,885 Hits) do not leap off the page.

Still, based on what happened on this ballot, Utley is going to make the Hall of Fame in the next couple of years.

Felix Hernandez (46.1% in his 2nd year on the ballot)

Sometimes, timing is everything. Felix Hernandez finished his career with only 169 wins, a 3.42 ERA, and one Cy Young Award. Normally, those career numbers would mean a one-time appearance on the BBWAA ballot. However, given that this was a relatively weak ballot and that he pitched like a Hall of Famer in the first ten years of his career, King Felix had a respectable first-year tally and dramatically increased his vote share this year.

Why is timing everything? Well, frankly, the last two ballots were relatively weak compared to some of the ballots of the late 2010s. In 2018, Johan Santana got just 2.4% of the vote and was booted off future ballots. Santana only won 139 games, but won a pair of Cy Youngs. His ERA was an excellent 3.20 (excellent for the era), resulting in a 136 ERA+. But the 2018 ballot was jam-packed with talent, and Santana got squeezed.

It’s clear now that writers are re-evaluating the standards for starting pitchers. Hernandez was arguably the best pitcher in baseball for a ten-year period, and is now more likely than not to make it to the Hall of Fame via the BBWAA.

Andy Pettitte (48.5% in his 8th year on the ballot)

Andy Pettitte was a prolific postseason pitcher, and his 256 career wins are unlikely to be surpassed by any active pitchers (other than Justin Verlander, who already has 266), but he needed to take advantage of the weaker ballots in the last three years and, though he has made some significant gains, is running out of time (players are only eligible for the BBWAA ballot for ten years).

Pettitte admitted to once using human growth hormone, so he has the PED taint. Additionally, his career record is easy to diminish because he always pitched for top-tier teams. He’s not going to make the Hall via the BBWAA, but he did make big gains this year and last, likely because his career statistics are similar to those of CC Sabathia (and CC was elected on the first ballot one year ago).

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If Pettitte gets a proverbial “pass” for his admitted use of HGH, it’s possible that the Era Committee will smile favorably, with Sabathia, Mariano Rivera, Derek Jeter, Mike Mussina, and Joe Torre being possible future committee members.

Alex Rodriguez (40.0%) and Manny Ramirez (38.8%)

Alex Rodriguez and Manny Ramirez were back on the ballot for 2026, Rodriguez for the 5th time and Ramirez for the 10th and final time.

A-Rod and Manny are the two candidates on the current ballot who were actually suspended from Major League Baseball for using PEDs. As a result, they are in voting quicksand.

The writers are “dug in” with these great hitters. If there was any hope for A-Rod and Manny, it would have been if newer, younger writers were more lenient about their PED transgressions. That relief did not arrive. From the 38 newly eligible BBWAA voting members to reveal their votes on Thibodaux’s vote tracker, A-Rod and Manny both got 38.5%.

A-Rod was clearly a much better player than Ramirez was, which explains why his vote tally is slightly higher. Still, it’s clear that the writers have put them in the same PED-loser bucket.

In December 2022, the Eras Committee thoroughly rejected two of the greatest players of all time (Barry Bonds and Roger Clemens). Each superstar received fewer than 5 out of 16 committee votes in a process that required at least 12 votes for a plaque in Cooperstown. Meanwhile, Fred McGriff went 16 for 16, while Bonds and Clemens did so poorly that the Hall did not even release their exact vote tallies. Then, last December, Jeff Kent got 14 out of 16 votes while Bonds and Clemens didn’t have any votes reported by the Hall.

The point here is that there is an obviously institutional position at the Hall of Fame (and with the living Hall of Famers) that PED users are not welcome in Cooperstown. A-Rod and Manny aren’t going to get in either via the BBWAA or the Era Committee anytime soon. Perhaps decades later, there will be a re-evaluation, but for now, they’re all out.

More than 5% but less than 33%

As previously noted, there were nine players who qualified to return to the 2027 ballot by getting at least 5%, but all have a lot of work to do to climb to the magic number of 75%.

Bobby Abreu (30.8% in his 7th year on the ballot):

Abreu combined power, speed, and durability. He played in 150 or more games in 13 consecutive seasons. The only other player to ever do it was Willie Mays. Abreu was also prolific at drawing walks, leading to a high career on-base percentage (.395).

Given that he had a 60.2 career WAR (which is just slightly higher than Ichiro Suzuki‘s), he’ll stick around on the BBWAA ballot for his full 10 years of eligibility. But his odds of a plaque in the Hall are pretty dim to nonexistent. Still, it’s good that an all-around player who doesn’t have a “wow” factor is getting a multi-year examination of his candidacy.

Jimmy Rollins (25.4% in his 5th year on the ballot)

Jimmy Rollins has a weak career WAR (47.6) and OPS+ (95), which makes it unlikely that he’ll ever break through with the writers. I do consider him, however, a strong future Era Committee candidate because he’s a popular player who was a cornerstone of a team that won five consecutive N.L. East titles. Additionally, he was unusually durable for a shortstop.

I’ll surprise some people by saying that Rollins has a better than 50% chance of making the Hall eventually. Once Chase Utley is a Hall of Famer, it will seem incongruous to many that Rollins isn’t.

Cole Hamels (23.8% in his first year on the ballot)

Cole Hamels, our third straight former member of the Philadelphia Phillies, had a nice first-year showing, especially for a pitcher with no close calls for the Cy Young and only 163 career wins.

There are plenty of players to debut with between 20% and 30% of the vote who went on to earn a spot in the Hall of Fame on a future BBWAA ballot. As we’ve already seen, seven recent players to debut at 21% or less (Bert Blyleven, Mike Mussina, Larry Walker, Scott Rolen, Todd Helton, Billy Wagner, and Andruw Jones) have recently made it over the 75% finish line.

Key stat: In the last 40 years of the BBWAA vote, there have been 16 non-PED-linked players (including Hernandez last year and Hamels this year) to earn between 20% and 39.9% of the vote on their first ballot.

Here is a list of those sixteen players.

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Eight of those sixteen players eventually made the Hall of Fame. Two who didn’t (Curt Schilling and Omar Vizquel) saw their Hall of Fame candidacies derailed by off-field issues.

Don Mattingly, Tommy John, and Luis Tiant have all been on multiple Era Committee ballots but haven’t been able to get to the magic 75% number. Schilling was on the 2023 Era Committee ballot and got 7 out of 16 votes. The four most recent players (Vizquel, Utley, King Felix, and Hamels) are still on the BBWAA ballot; Utley and King Felix are going to make it in the next few years.

For more on the career of Cole Hamels, please click here.

Dustin Pedroia (20.7% in his 2nd year on the ballot):

Dustin Pedroia’s career counting stats (140 HR, 1,805 Hits) are underwhelming, which explains why this three-time World Series champion received such a small vote total.

Here’s a nugget from Jayson Stark in The Athletic: “Until that slide, Pedroia had played 11 full seasons — and had won a Rookie of the Year award, an MVP trophy, four Gold Gloves and two World Series. Digest that for a moment. Not to imply that that’s slightly amazing, but … only two players in history can say they did all those things (or more). One is Pedroia. The other? Johnny Bench.”

The general point is that Pedroia has a lot of hardware, and he epitomizes the word “winner.”

I doubt he’ll ever increase his BBWAA vote total enough to make it to the Hall of Fame, but, like with Rollins, a future Era Committee might be more open to his candidacy.

Mark Buehrle (20.0% in his 6th year on the ballot)

Mark Buehrle was fun to watch. He worked fast, pitched to contact, and was unusually durable, but he never felt like a Hall of Famer. It’s possible that his career will look better a decade or two from now as 200-game-winners start to become extinct.

His case is better than you might think. It’s unlikely he ever makes the Hall of Fame, but he would be a welcome addition.

Omar Vizquel (18.4% in his 9th year on the ballot)

In his third year on the ballot (in 2020), Omar Vizquel got 52.6% of the vote, representing a gain of nearly 10% from the previous year. It seemed inevitable that Vizquel was destined for a plaque in Cooperstown. However, in the last couple of years, Vizquel has been tarnished by two scandals (domestic battery and sexual harassment). As a result, his voting support has plummeted.

Unless Vizquel is exonerated satisfactorily in the two cases, it’s unlikely he’ll make it into the Hall in his final two years of eligibility. In this writer’s opinion, Vizquel didn’t deserve a Hall of Fame plaque anyway.

David Wright (14.8% in his 3rd year on the ballot)

I’ll admit that I’m biased when it comes to David Wright. I’m a lifelong Mets fan, and he is to us what Joe Mauer is to Minnesota Twins fans or Todd Helton to Colorado Rockies fans. Wright’s career was cut short due to injury, and, in fairness, his case is a little light.

I’m glad he survived to be on another ballot and has improved his vote share, making it more likely he’ll last through all ten years of eligibility for the BBWAA ballot.

For more on David Wright’s career with the Mets and why I gave him my “virtual” vote, please click here.

Francisco Rodriguez (11.8% in his 4th year on the ballot): 

K-Rod will return to the 2027 ballot thanks to having the 6th most saves (437) in baseball history. It’s clear, however, that the writers have (accurately) concluded that he’s not in Billy Wagner’s league (Wagner was elected to the Hall one year ago).

Rodriguez was brilliant in his tenure with the Angels (2002-08) and set the all-time single-season saves record (with 62 in ’08), but he was not an elite reliever in the years since then.

Torii Hunter (8.7% in his 6th year on the ballot)

Torii Hunter continues to re-qualify for the Hall of Fame ballot. For the fifth year in a row, he’s the lowest vote-getter among the candidates to earn at least 5% of the vote and, thus, return for another try on the next ballot. Hunter has a small but loyal group of supporters, but, as we’ll see, the ballot is going to get a bit more crowded in a few years.

Hunter is just one of two players in the history of the BBWAA voting to get between 5% but less than 10% in more than five consecutive ballots. The other is Yankees pitcher Ron Guidry, who had eight straight ballots between 5.2% and 8.8% from 1994-2001 before getting 4.9% in 2022, thus falling off future ballots.

Since 1960, there have been only twelve players to earn between 5% and 9.9% on six or more ballots, although all the others had at least one ballot in which they got more than 10%.

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Note: before 1986, players could return to future BBWAA ballots even if they earned less than 5% of the vote. This was the case with Vada Pinson, Curt Flood, and Mickey Vernon.

Hunter has some nice basics for an elevator pitch (353 HR, 2,452 Hits, 9 Gold Gloves), so it wouldn’t shock me if a future Era Committee smiled upon his candidacy.

 

Coming Attractions to the BBWAA Ballot

Besides the first-time players who earned less than 5% of the vote, there are three players who were on the 2026 BBWAA ballot who won’t be back in 2027: it’s the two inductees (Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones) and Manny Ramirez, who has now exhausted his ten years of eligibility.

Thus, any writer who checked the maximum number of allowed names (10) on this year’s ballot will have up to three more open slots this December.

The first-time candidate pool for this year’s ballot was unusually weak: only Cole Hamels (23.8%) survived to return to the ballot next year. Of the first-time candidates for the 2027 ballot, two of them have strong resumes for the Hall of Fame: catcher Buster Posey and pitcher Jon Lester.

Posey was the Rookie of the Year in 2010, a MVP in 2012, and led the San Francisco Giants to three World Series Championships. Lester won 200 games and was a dominant postseason pitcher, posting a 2.51 ERA in 154 innings, helping the Boston Red Sox to two World Series titles (in 2007 and 2013) and the Chicago Cubs to their Championship in 2016.

Both Posey and Lester score relatively low on Wins Above Replacement (WAR), 45.0 for Posey and 43.4 for Lester. The low WAR is likely a bigger problem for Lester, because 43.4 puts him in 158th place on the all-time list for starting pitchers. Because of the physical demands of being a MLB catcher, they generally don’t have the lengthy careers that players at other positions enjoy. Thus, Posey’s 45.0 WAR puts him in 16th place all-time for catchers.

Given that there’s nobody returning from the 2026 who is poised to eclipse the 75% minimum next year, I think there’s a strong chance that Posey will be inducted on the first ballot. Utley, with 59.8% this year, has an outside chance to clinch a plaque in Cooperstown next year, but I think it’s more likely he crosses the 75% barrier in 2028 or 2029.

After Posey and Lester, other likely first-time candidates will be Ryan Zimmerman, Brett Gardner, Kyle Seager, Asdrubal Cabrera, Todd Frazier, Jay Bruce, Jonathan Lucroy, Jake Arrieta, and Joaquim Soria. It’s highly unlikely that any of them will get the 5% minimum to appear on future ballots.

The Early Cooperstown Cred Virtual Ballot for 2027

I reserve the right to change my mind (and it’s not a real ballot anyway!) but this will likely be my 2027 virtual ballot:

• Buster Posey
• Chase Utley
• Dustin Pedroia
• Bobby Abreu
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Buehrle
• Felix Hernandez
• David Wright
• Jimmy Rollins
• Jon Lester

Depending on how the winds are blowing, I could potentially substitute Cole Hamels for one of the others on the list.

The Hall of Fame’s Class of 2027 will also include non-players. The Contemporary Baseball Non-Player Era Committee will meet this December to decide on the candidacies of eight managers, executives, and/or umpires. This will be a star-studded ballot, with managers Bruce Bochy and Dusty Baker eligible for the first time.

Bochy, a four-time World Series Champion, is a no-brainer and will be a nice pairing with Posey if he makes it on the first BBWAA ballot. Baker, with one World Series title to his credit, is a cut below Bochy, but only by a little bit. His 2,183 career wins are the eighth most in baseball history. That’s 414 more than Jim Leyland, who also won just one World Series and was elected by this committee in December 2023.

Lou Piniella will likely also return to this ballot, and he has twice finished just one vote shy of the 12 out of 16 (75%) required for a plaque in the Hall. Depending on his work status, Brian Sabean, the General Manager for those great Giants teams of the 2010s, may be eligible as well. The same is true for Theo Epstein, the architect of two curse reversals in Boston and Chicago.

Additionally, Bill White, an excellent player who was also the N.L. President for years, got 10 out of 16 votes on the last ballot, giving him a good chance to return to the ballot, but he will get squeezed by the voting rules.

On the Era Committee, there are sixteen voters, who are culled from Hall of Famers, baseball executives, and media members. The sixteen voters are limited to voting for just three out of eight candidates, and 75% is needed for induction (12 out of 16). Given that Bochy and Baker will likely be unanimous picks, the math will be very difficult for anyone else to get 12 votes.

Predicted 2027 Hall of Fame Class: Posey, Bochy, and Baker.

The 2028 Hall of Fame Ballot

The first-time candidates for 2028 include several big names: Albert Pujols, Yadier Molina, and Robinson Cano. Other noteworthy candidates, who will likely fall short of 5% on this ballot, are David Price, Stephen Strasburg, Lorenzo Cain, and Justin Upton.

Pujols will be a first-ballot inductee and might get 100%. Molina, who has a relatively low WAR (42.3) but 9 Gold Gloves and 10 All-Star berths, will be a controversial case. I expect that he’ll make it on the first ballot with Pujols, but there may be a sabermetric wall due to his poor hitting record.

As for Cano, he’ll be the new Manny Ramirez, clogging up the ballot with performance-only voters but never sniffing 50%. 2028 will also be the final year on the ballot for Andy Pettitte.

So, assuming that Posey has already made the Hall, this would be my potential virtual Hall of Fame ballot for 2028:

• Albert Pujols
• Yadier Molina
• Chase Utley
• Dustin Pedroia
• Bobby Abreu
• Andy Pettitte
• Mark Buehrle
• Felix Hernandez
• David Wright
• Jon Lester

Missing from this ballot, squeezed by the 10-player maximum, is Jimmy Rollins. Depending on how others are doing on the ballot, I could theoretically replace one of them with Rollins.

The Classic Baseball Committee, which elected Dick Allen and Dave Parker 13 months ago, will meet again to consider eight candidates whose primary contribution to the game was between 1871 and 1980. Tommy John is the highest-returning vote-getter from the last ballot. That doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll make it for 2027, but I think he will.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2028: Pujols, Molina, Utley, plus John and maybe one other player via the Era Committee.

The 2029 Hall of Fame Ballot

Lots of big names will be joining the party in 2029, led by Miguel Cabrera, an easy first-ballot choice. Stathead favorites Zack Greinke and Joey Votto will join the ballot as well and get lots of support. I expect Greinke will do better than Votto, but expect both to make the Hall of Fame, though Votto will likely not make it on the first ballot, and Greinke might not either.

Other first-time candidates in 2029 include Evan Longoria, Josh Donaldson, Nelson Cruz, Adam Wainwright, Corey Kluber, and Madison Bumgarner.

With so many strong candidates in 2029, a virtual ballot contains some hard choices. Here is what it might look like:

• Miguel Cabrera
• Zack Greinke
• Joey Votto
• Dustin Pedroia
• Felix Hernandez
• Bobby Abreu
• Mark Buehrle
• Jimmy Rollins
• David Wright
• Jon Lester

Since this will be Abreu’s 10th year on the ballot and Buehrle’s 9th, I might determine one or both of them to be “lost causes” and make room for new players. The same may be true for Wright, though it would break my heart.

After the first ballot candidates listed on my virtual ballot above, Longoria, Wainwright, Donaldson, Cruz, Kluber, and Bumgarner have interesting points in favor for the Hall of Fame. I would expect Longoria (342 HR, 58.9 WAR) and Wainwright (200 Wins, four top-3 Cy Young finishes) to crack the 5% minimum to remain on future ballots.

Although Cruz hit 464 home runs, he has the PED taint, so he’ll be one-and-done. Former MVP Donaldson (46.8 WAR), Kluber (2-time Cy Young Award winner, but only 116 wins), and Bumgarner (postseason legend but only 134 wins) will probably be one-and-done (under 5% of the vote) as well.

Unless the Hall of Fame changes the Era Committee schedule, the Contemporary Baseball Player Era Committee will meet again in December 2028. New candidates who will be eligible for the first time include Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel, Jim Edmonds, Jorge Posada, and Johan Santana. Three candidates who are not eligible because they got fewer than five votes last month are Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, and Gary Sheffield.

The top returning vote-getters from last month (Carlos Delgado, Don Mattingly, and Dale Murphy) are top candidates to be back on that ballot. Some of us would like to see Dwight Evans and Lou Whitaker get another shot at Cooperstown. They haven’t appeared on an Era Committee ballot since December 2019. Curt Schilling, who got 7 votes in December 2022, might be back as well.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2029: Cabrera, Greinke, and, from the Era Committee, who knows?

The 2030 Hall of Fame Ballot

There are no obvious Hall of Famers from the first-time candidates in 2030. The top names likely to be on the ballot are Anthony Rizzo, Anthony Rendon, J.D. Martinez, Brandon Crawford, Matt Carpenter, Jose Abreu, Johnny Cueto, and Lance Lynn.

Assuming that Molina, Greinke, and Utley are already in the Hall of Fame, this is a potential ten-man ballot for 2030, adding Adan Wainwright. I’m probably, ultimately, a “no” for Waino for the Hall of Fame, but think he deserves a multi-year examination.

This will be Mark Buehrle’s 10th and last time on the ballot; the same is true for Torii Hunter if he keeps squeaking past the 5% minimum.

• Joey Votto
• Dustin Pedroia
• Felix Hernandez
• Mark Buehrle
• Jimmy Rollins
• David Wright
• Jon Lester
• Cole Hamels
• Evan Longoria
• Adam Wainwright

As for the Era Committee, they’ll be looking again at non-players from 1980 and beyond. Since Bruce Bochy and Dusty Baker will likely hog most of the votes this December, this might be the year Lou Piniella makes it, but that depends on who else is on the ballot. Depending on eligibility, there are still Brian Sabean and Theo Epstein, no-brainer executive candidates. And, if Terry Francona has retired, he’s a lock.

Predicted Hall of Fame Class of 2030: Votto, Hernandez, Sabean, and Francona.

The 2031 Hall of Fame Ballot

Other than Clayton Kershaw, who has officially retired, it’s hard to know who will be eligible for the 2031 Hall of Fame ballot. Will Craig Kimbrel get a Major League job this year? Kimbrel has 440 career saves, but he only logged 11 MLB innings last year and may not get another chance. Justin Turner, now 41 years old, is still not retired but might not get a gig this year.

This will be the 10th and final appearance on the BBWAA ballot for Alex Rodriguez and Jimmy Rollins.

Here is a possible virtual ballot for 2031:

• Clayton Kershaw
• Dustin Pedroia
• Mark Buehrle
• Jimmy Rollins
• David Wright
• Jon Lester
• Cole Hamels
• Evan Longoria
• Adam Wainwright
• TBA

Looking Past 2031

Beyond 2031, this year could be the last for Max Scherzer (41 years old) and Justin Verlander (who will turn 43 on February 20). Both are currently unsigned but performed well enough that, if they want to pitch this year, they’ll probably get the chance. If 2026 is the last year for either on the mound, they’ll be the headliner for the Hall’s Class of 2032.

Speaking of 2032, Mookie Betts has already announced that he’s going to retire when his contract expires at the end of that year, so he’ll be a first-ballot inductee in 2038, when this writer will (hopefully) still be roaming the earth at age 71.

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