Todd Helton and the Ongoing Coors Field Hall of Fame Debate

For 17 years, Todd Helton was a mainstay at first base for the Colorado Rockies. The left-handed-hitting Helton was a consistent force with both the bat and the glove during his 17 years playing in the Mile High City. A former quarterback at the University of Tennessee, Helton had an exceptionally strong and accurate throwing arm for a first baseman; he has the third most assists for a first sacker in Major League Baseball history.

As a hitter, he was a line-drive machine who is one of only five players in baseball history to stroke 45 or more doubles in five different campaigns.  His 59 doubles in 2000 were the most in baseball since 1936.

Helton, having retired at the end of the 2013 season, has been on the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot for the Hall of Fame for six years and nearly made it to the Hall of Fame last year when he received a 72.2% vote share (75% is needed for election). It was the second-highest vote total, behind only Scott Rolen, who got 76.3% of the vote and is now a Hall of Famer.

Generally, when a player gets over 70% of the vote with one or more years of eligibility left, they quickly clear the 75% threshold required for a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum in Cooperstown, NY. Only two players since 1965 have received 70% and failed to clear 75% the next year (pitchers Jim Bunning and Curt Schilling).

As it was for Helton’s Rockies’ teammate Larry Walker, much of the discussion about Helton’s worthiness for a plaque in Cooperstown centers around the fact that he had the benefit of playing half of his career games in hitter-friendly Coors Field. In January 2020, Walker was on the BBWAA ballot for the 10th and final time, and he surged from 54.6% (in 2019) to 76.6%, giving him just enough to earn a plaque in the Hall of Fame.

Anyway, if history is a guide, Todd Helton will see his plaque unveiled on stage in Cooperstown this summer with dozens of Hall of Famers sitting behind him.

Cooperstown Cred: Todd Helton (1B)

6th year on the ballot in 2024 (received 72.2% of the vote in 2023)

• Colorado Rockies (1997-2013)
• Career: 369 HR, 1,406 RBI, 2,519 Hits, .316 BA, .414 OBP, .539 SLG
• Career: 133 OPS+, 61.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 5-time All-Star
• 4-time Gold Glove Award Winner
• 3-time Silver Slugger Award Winner
• Career OPS of .953 is the 15th-best in MLB history (minimum 7,500 plate appearances)
• Led N.L. in double plays turned by a first baseman six times in his career

(cover photo: Denver Post)

This article was originally posted in January 2019 and has been updated in advance of the 2024 vote.

Todd Helton: Before the Majors

Todd Lynn Helton was born on August 20, 1973, in Knoxville, Tennessee. He was a two-sport star at Central High School in Knoxville, excelling at both football (as a quarterback) and baseball (as a first baseman and pitcher). He hit .655 as a senior and was the second-round pick by the San Diego Padres in the 1992 player draft. However, he had already committed to attend the University of Tennessee on a football scholarship and chose instead to honor that commitment.

On the gridiron, Helton was stuck behind Heath Shuler on the depth chart in his freshman and sophomore seasons. In his junior season (the fall of 1994), an injury in the first game to the new starter (Jerry Colquitt) gave Helton a chance to play. The 13th-ranked Vols lost that first game (at 14th-ranked UCLA) but won the next week at 23rd-ranked Georgia. In Helton’s third game, Tennessee was shut out at home by the top-ranked Florida Gators.

Unfortunately for Helton, he injured his knee in his fourth game of the season (at Mississippi State). It would be the last football game Helton would play. His replacement would lead Tennessee to wins in 7 of their last 8 games and a 21-3 record in the following two seasons. That replacement’s name was Peyton Manning.

Todd Helton: Drafted by the Colorado Rockies

Although Todd Helton’s college football career was over, he remained a two-sport star for the Volunteers. As a junior in the spring of ’95, he hit .407 with 20 HR, 92 RBI while saving 11 games with a 0.89 ERA as the team’s closer. In June, he was the 8th overall draft pick in the first round by the Colorado Rockies, an expansion franchise in their third year of existence.

After just 267 games in three minor league seasons, Helton made his MLB debut with the Rockies in August 1997. Since he logged just 101 plate appearances in ’97, Helton retained his rookie status in 1998. As an official rookie, Helton was given the team’s starting job at first base, replacing Andres Galarraga, who had departed as a free agent.

10-Year Peak (1998-2007)

Todd Helton’s rookie year marked the beginning of a ten-year stretch in which he averaged 154 games played per year while posting remarkable batting numbers. For that decade, Helton had a slash line of .333 BA/.432 OBP/.585 SLG while hitting an average of 30 HR per year with 108 RBI. Even when adjusting for playing home games at Coors Field, Helton still had a 144 OPS+ (44% above league average) for this ten-year period while averaging 5.5 WAR per season.

During that 10-year peak, Helton put up eye-popping numbers in 2000. He led the N.L. in all three slash line categories (.372 BA, .463 OBP, .698 SLG) while also leading the league in RBI (147), Hits (216), and Doubles (59). Oh, and he hit 42 home runs. Despite this incredible season (he also led the N.L. with an 8.9 WAR), Helton only finished 5th in the league’s MVP vote, behind Jeff Kent, Barry Bonds, Mike Piazza, and Jim Edmonds.

Helton’s 59 doubles in 2000 were the most in baseball since 1936, when a pair of Hall of Famers had 64 (Joe Medwick) and 60 (Charlie Gehringer). Helton is one of five players in history to hit over .370 with over 40 HR and over 140 RBI. The others? Hall of Famers Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Chuck Klein, and Rogers Hornsby.

At the beginning of the 2001 campaign, Helton was rewarded with a nine-year contract extension worth $141.5 million. He followed up his historic ’00 season by slugging a career-high 49 homers in ’01 to go with another 54 doubles and 146 RBI. It was the first and only time in the history of baseball that a player has logged 100 extra-base hits in consecutive seasons.

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Todd Helton’s Defense

Besides hitting at a superb level, Todd Helton was also a magnificent defensive player at first base. He won Gold Gloves at the position in 2001, 2002, and 2004. He led the N.L. in assists 4 times, turned the most double plays 6 times, and led the league in fielding percentage 6 times. Helton’s 1,726 career assists are the third most in baseball history for a first sacker, and his 2,038 double plays turned are also the third-most.

Should it be a big surprise that the former college quarterback’s arm was an asset on the diamond?

Using sabermetrics, Helton’s total “zone runs” (fielding runs above average) are the second most for a first baseman since 1953. Only Keith Hernandez (in many ways a similar player who I believe should be in the Hall of Fame) has more.

Helton was superb at tracking down groundballs to his right (a reason for his high assist total), making accurate and well-timed tosses to the pitcher, and he also excelled at scooping up errant throws from his fielders (a reason for his high fielding percentage).

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First Playoff Season in 2007

One thing that perennially frustrated Todd Helton for the first decade of his playing career in Colorado was that his seasons never extended into October.

“It’s like a dog who has never had table scraps. I really don’t know what it tastes like. I would love to get a taste of the playoffs. I hope I will get to, and I hope it’s this year. I am not on the three-year or four-year plan to get there. I am on a one-year plan.”

— Todd Helton (as told to Troy Renck of the Denver Post, August 2012, reported in Helton’s SABR Bio)

The Rockies averaged 75 wins per season in Helton’s first 9 full campaigns, finishing in 4th or 5th place in the N.L. West every year. In his first five years, he played for four different managers (Don Baylor, Jim Leyland, Buddy Bell, and Clint Hurdle).

For most of 2007, with Hurdle at the helm for the 6th straight year, it looked like much of the same. At the conclusion of play on Saturday, September 15th, the Rockies were 76-72, in 4th place, 6.5 half games behind the division-leading Arizona Diamondbacks. The Rockies had just lost three straight games to the Florida Marlins.

The next day, however, the Rockies blew out the Marlins 13-0, with Helton going 3 for 4 with a home run and 3 RBI. That game sparked a streak in which the Rockies would win 12 of their next 13 games to finish the regular season with an 89-73 record. The mark was good enough for a 2nd-place tie with the San Diego Padres, setting up a winner-take-all game at Coors Field to determine the N.L. Wild Card entrant.

Colorado famously won the tiebreaker game in 13 innings, coming from behind to defeat future Hall of Famer Trevor Hoffman 9-8. In the Rockies’ final 15 games (including the tiebreaker), the team went 14-1, with Helton playing a key offensive role in the surge. He hit .377 with a .458 OBP, .639 SLG, 4 HR, and 15 RBI in those 15 contests.

For Helton, the most notable was in the third game of the streak. In the second game of a doubleheader, the Rockies were trailing the Dodgers 8-7 in the bottom of the 9th inning; Helton hit a two-run walk-off home run off Takashi Saito to give the Rox the victory.

Although Helton’s bat went cold in the playoffs, his teammates’ bats remained hot. The Rockies swept the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS and the Diamondbacks in the NLCS to advance to the first World Series in the franchise’s history. Click here to hear Helton talk about the joy of the Rockies’ pennant clincher at Coors.

Overall, between regular and postseason baseball, Colorado had won 21 out of 22 games to advance to the Fall Classic against the Boston Red Sox. Alas, the miracle season did not finish with the ultimate outcome. Terry Francona‘s Sox were the better team and swept the Rockies in four games.

For Helton, the 2007 postseason was a disappointment with the bat. He hit just .220 with a .615 and only 2 RBI in 11 games. Still, being in the October party was something the competitive first baseman had craved for so long.

2008-2013: Todd Helton’s Final Six Seasons

2007 was the last for Todd Helton as an elite, Hall of Fame quality player. Due to a degenerative back condition, Helton played in only 83 games in 2008. He hit a then career-low .264 with just 7 HR and 29 RBI in 361 plate appearances. Back surgery in September ended his season prematurely.

Helton did have a mini-renaissance in 2009. He slashed .325/.416/.489 with 15 HR and 86 RBI in 151 games. The Rockies returned to postseason baseball, winning the N.L. Wild Card again. They were defeated in 4 games by the Philadelphia Phillies in the NLDS, with Helton hitting just .188.

Back woes limited Helton’s availability for the final four seasons of his career. In his final two campaigns, Helton hit just .245 with an 89 OPS+.

In the middle of September 2013, the 40-year-old Helton announced that he would retire at the end of the season. In his final game at Coors, a 15-5 loss to the Red Sox in an interleague tilt, Helton went out in style, going 2 for 3 with a home run and a double. Helton’s one-time teammate at Tennessee, Peyton Manning, now a member of the Denver Broncos, was on hand to witness his friend’s last hurrah in the Mile High City.

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The Hall of Fame Case For and Against Todd Helton

When it comes to the Hall of Fame case for Todd Helton, let’s start with the obvious caveat that with all of the statistical nuggets that speak to his induction, there is an inherent “but what about Coors Field” element that begs a question about those statistics. I’ll cover Coors extensively in the upcoming sections. But let’s start by just going through the basics.

First of all, Helton had a career slash line of .316 BA/.414 OBP/.539 SLG with more walks (1,335) than strikeouts (1,175). For players with at least 9,000 plate appearances,  there are just seven players in baseball history to post a slash line that good with more walks than K’s. Those seven are Babe Ruth, Ted Williams, Lou Gehrig, Rogers Hornsby, Jimmie Foxx, Stan Musial, and Helton. The first six are not just Hall of Famers but all-time greats.

If you lower the slash line standards to round numbers (.300 BA/.400 OBP/.500 SLG), the list grows to 12, with Hall of Famers Tris Speaker, Mel Ott, Frank Thomas, and Chipper Jones also on the list. It’s still a great, great list for Helton to be on.

As we’ve already noted, Helton is the only player in MLB history to record 100 extra-base hits in back-to-back seasons.

Helton was a doubles machine. His 592 career two-baggers are the 20th most in the history of baseball. He’s the only player in the top 27 who did it without logging 10,000 PA (Helton finished with 9,453 times at the plate). Helton was also the first player ever to record 35 doubles per season for 10 consecutive campaigns.

Helton’s Peaks

Todd Helton, at his best, was a magnificent batsman, even when you account for the Coors Field edge. Take a look at Helton’s numbers and how he ranked among all MLB hitters during his five All-Star campaigns (2000-2004):

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If one were to take Barry Bonds and Alex Rodriguez out of the equation, who are both linked to Performance Enhancing Drugs (PEDs), Helton was the MLB leader in all three slash line categories (BA/OBP/SLG), hits, doubles, runs, RBI, RC (Runs Created), and WAR.

When taking a longer 10-year view, Helton’s ranks are not quite as impressive but still stellar:

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Helton’s slash line remains near the top in all three categories, although Coors obviously has an impact here. His OPS+ (which is designed to adjust for the Coors effect) is still excellent. What makes this 10-year peak Hall-worthy, in particular, is that Helton’s overall game (as reflected by WAR) puts him in the top 4 for that 10-season period.

One should note that the presence of Andruw Jones ahead of Helton on the WAR list here is often cited as a reason why the 10-time Gold Glover also should be a Hall of Famer. Jones’ 3rd-place rank is a result of off-the-charts defensive metrics, which I discussed in detail in this piece. For the record, Jones doesn’t make the top 5 in any of the offensive categories listed and is outside the top 20 in all three slash line categories.

Career Sabermetrics

Todd Helton’s career OPS+ was 133. There are 47 players in baseball history with at least 9,000 PA and a 133 OPS+. Of those 47 players, 40 are in the Hall. The seven who aren’t yet in the Hall are Helton, two players who are not yet eligible (Miguel Cabrera, Albert Pujols), Barry Bonds, and three others on the 2024 BBWAA ballot (Alex Rodriguez, Manny Ramirez, and Gary Sheffield). Rodriguez, Bonds, Ramirez, and Sheffield are linked to PEDs.

Two years ago, David Ortiz and Fred McGriff were also on this list but not yet in the Hall. Ortiz was elected by the BBWAA in 2022. As for the Crime Dog, he never made it via the BBWAA but was a unanimous selection last month by the Eras Committee for the Class of 2023.

Using WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Helton’s career total of 61.8 is the 17th best for all first basemen in history. The only first sackers with higher are PED-linked (Rafael Palmerio, Mark McGwire) and the not-yet-eligible (Pujols, Cabrera, and Joey Votto). Using Jay Jaffe’s JAWS system, he’s ranked 15th best, ahead of 11 Cooperstown-enshrined first basemen.

A Special Club

From 1999-2003, Todd Helton had a remarkable stretch in which he joined an exclusive fraternity, a quartet of players with at least 5 consecutive seasons with a .320 batting average, 30 HR, 100 RBI, and 100 Runs Scored:

• Lou Gehrig: 8 straight seasons (1930-1937)
• Babe Ruth: 7 (1926-1932)
• Jimmie Foxx: 5 (1932-1936)
• Todd Helton: 5 (1999-2003)

If you forget about achieving this in consecutive seasons, only 21 have managed the .320/30/100/100 feat as many as three times ever in their careers. 16 of the 21 are in the Hall. The 5 who aren’t are Helton, Pujols, Cabrera, Bonds, and Ramirez.

Poking Holes in the Points in Favor of Todd Helton

For starters, it’s fair to say that Todd Helton’s career slash line might not have been superior to .300/.400/.500 if he had not spent half of his career hitting at Coors Field. In road games, he hit .287 with a .386 OBP and .469 SLG. Those numbers are fine, but don’t put him in any exclusive clubs of inner-circle Hall of Famers.

It’s also fair to say that, for a first baseman hitting at Coors Field, Helton’s career totals of 369 HR and 2,519 Hits are slightly lacking. There is no Hall of Fame first baseman who debuted after World War II and swatted fewer than Helton’s 369 taters.

As for some of the other nuggets, I noted that Helton was the first player to record 10 consecutive 35-double seasons. One year later, Bobby Abreu matched that record. Abreu is also on the 2024 Hall of Fame ballot. When it comes to Helton’s place on the all-time doubles list, 20th is nice, but it’s four behind Luis Gonzalez and just 18 more than Abreu’s total of 574.

Next, regarding the exclusive club of players with 9,000 PA and a 133 OPS+ or higher, if you relax the PA requirement to 8,500, you get other members who are not in the Hall of Fame: Jason Giambi (139 OPS+), Carlos Delgado (138), and Sherry Magee (137).

The Coors Effect

OK, it’s time to tackle the oversized pitcher of beer in the room, the impact of Coors Field on Todd Helton’s statistics.

Before diving into the topic, let me start by saying that there are some very smart people, folks who are very aware of the Coors effect, who have concluded that Helton’s numbers are above the Hall of Fame bar even when accounting for Coors.

This is what sabermetric pioneer Bill James wrote in the 2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook:

“Helton’s numbers… are SO good that nobody knows what to do with them. Helton played not only in a very high-run era, but also in a hitter’s paradise. People know intuitively that his numbers are misleading and you need to let some of the air out of them, but they don’t know intuitively how much. 

But if you will pardon my saying, that’s what guys like me are good for. Guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself… we know how to handle THAT problem. We normalize everything for context all of the time.

Even if you adjust for the context, Todd Helton was a Hall of Famer.”

— Bill James (2019 Bill James Baseball Handbook)

My default reaction to anything written by Bill James is to remember that he has forgotten 100 times more about baseball than I will ever know. If James says Helton is a Hall of Famer, that has to be taken seriously. However, James (and Forman from Baseball-Reference) have provided us with tools that allow us to go through the exercise of seeing for ourselves if we agree with his conclusion.

So, let’s go through the exercise, made easy by Forman’s indispensable site, Baseball Reference. I think you’ll find it interesting, possibly even fascinating.

Todd Helton’s Home/Road Splits

I alluded to it earlier, but for the sake of clarity, let’s compare Todd Helton’s career statistics at Coors Field to his stats on the road.

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That’s rather severe but not entirely surprising. As striking as the split is, it should be noted that Helton’s career road OPS of .855 is higher than the career road OPS of many Hall of Famers, including Dave Winfield, Eddie Murray, Tony Gwynn, Andre Dawson, Paul Molitor, Wade Boggs, Jim Rice, and Harold Baines.

Now, to be fair, what all of those players have in common is that they played primarily in the 1980s and/or early 1990s before the offensive explosion began throughout baseball in the late ’90s.

When compared to players from his generation, Helton’s .855 road OPS looks less thrilling. It’s behind Carlos Delgado, Tim Salmon, Brian Giles, Adrian Gonzalez, Ryan Klesko, John Olerud, and Nelson Cruz. Overall, it’s the 40th best among the 201 players to log at least 3,000 road PA from 1993 until the present day. That’s not outstanding, but, considering the superb home numbers, it’s not a deal-breaker.

By the way, in case you’re wondering about Helton’s historic 2000 campaign, he was a beast with the bat both at home and on the road. His slash line in road games was a spectacular .353 BA/.441 OBP/.633 SLG. In home games, it was a ridiculous .391 BA/.484 OBP/.758 SLG.

Next, let’s take a look at Helton’s splits during his entire five-year peak (2000-2004), in which he logged all five of his All-Star appearances.

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Todd Helton’s Road Rankings during his 2000-2004 Peak

Considering how good he was during those five seasons, it shouldn’t surprise that Helton’s numbers were also excellent on the road. There is a bit of a blemish to this shine, however, when you look at how Helton ranks in road games only in many of the statistical categories that he dominated overall.

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Those ranks are not so enthralling, especially considering that these are the years that are theoretically the ones that would put Helton into the Hall of Fame.

By the way, I would like to briefly address the potential inequity (to Helton) in the rankings listed above. For non-Rockies players, games as a visitor at Coors Field count as road games. So, in order to account for this variable, I took the road records for the top 10 batters listed in OPS and stripped out the Coors Field numbers. When doing that, Helton rises from a tie for 9th to a tie for 8th. Thanks to a 1.257 OPS at Coors, Jim Edmonds’ OPS in all non-Coors road games drops to .965, slightly below Helton’s .973.

In batting average, Helton improves from 11th to a tie for 10th (with Mike Sweeney). Ultimately, it’s a minor factor that doesn’t change the conclusions one can draw from the overall numbers.

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What about the Longer Peak (1998-2007)

If you look at how Todd Helton ranks in road games over a longer period of time (1998-2007), it is even less alluring.

Among the 77 players with at least 2,500 plate appearances in road games only (from ’98-’07):

• .899 OPS (18th best, behind Lance Berkman, Delgado, Luis Gonzalez, Edmonds, and others)
• .296 BA (19th best, behind Sean Casey, Ordonez, Jason Kendall, Berkman, and others)
• .395 OBP (10th best, behind Berkman, Giles, and others)
• .504 SLG (tied for 24th best, behind Berkman, Delgado, Edmonds, Andruw Jones, Giles, and others)

For “counting” stats (with no plate appearance qualifications)

• 116 HR (37th best, behind Berkman, Shawn Green, Troy Glaus, Derrek Lee, Richie Sexson, Jeromy Burnitz, Carlos Lee, and others)
• 427 RBI (28th best, behind Garret Anderson, Abreu, Berkman, Jermaine Dye, and others)
• 412 Runs (27th best, behind Giles, Gonzalez, Ray Durham, Edgar Renteria, and others)
• 817 Hits (15th best, behind Anderson, Tejada, Green, and others)
• 210 Doubles (still the best!!)

You may have noticed the name Lance Berkman on a lot of these lists. Like Helton, he was also a first-time candidate for the Hall of Fame in January 2019. Unlike Helton, he fell off future ballots by failing to get 5% of the vote. Still, if you want a brief tangent, take a look at Berkman vs. Helton in this piece about the Big Puma.

Neutralized Statistics by Baseball-Reference

In an earlier section, I noted that Bill James had written that “guys like Tom Tango, John Dewan, Sean Forman and myself” know how to “handle” the Coors Field “problem.” Forman’s Baseball Reference has a wonderful tool at the bottom of every player’s “advanced” statistics page called “Neutralized Statistics.”

“Neutralized Statistics” allows the user to plug a player’s career into a formula that adjusts it for different run-scoring environments. Those run-scoring environments are both the individual ballparks and the different seasons.

An example: in the year 2000, all MLB players combined to hit .270 with a .782 OPS, with the teams scoring 5.14 runs per game.

In 1968 (the year before the pitching mound was lowered), all players combined to hit .237 with a .639 OPS; the teams combined scored 3.42 runs per game. Carl Yastrzemski won the A.L. batting crown with a .301 average. In 2000, Nomar Garciaparra led the A.L. with a .372 BA, while Todd Helton led the N.L., also with a .372 BA.

If you put Yastrzemski’s .301 batting average into the context of 2000 and put him in a Rockies uniform, the neutralized stats “simulator” gives him a .381 average. If you plug Helton’s .372 average into 1968 and put him on the Red Sox, it translates to a .297 average.

I will admit, you will get some downright goofy results if you plug historically famous seasons into the 2000 Rockies simulator, which adjusts a player’s career into a run-scoring environment of 6.25 runs per game:

• Babe Ruth (1927): .396 BA, 75 HR, 224 RBI (actual — .356 BA, 60 HR, 165 RBI)
• Ted Williams (1941): hits .450 instead of actual .406
• Rod Carew (1977): hits .452 instead of actual .388
• George Brett (1980): .454 BA, 175 RBI (instead of actual .390 with 118 RBI)

I will say, however, those results are not that much goofier than Barry Bonds’ 73 actual home runs in 2001 or Sammy Sosa‘s three out of four seasons with more than 60.

My point is this: because of the Mile High air and spacious dimensions, Coors Field behaves in such a way that hitters seem like they are on steroids.

Examples of Hypothetical Careers for Players at Coors Field

Let’s have some fun!

I’m going to take you on a brief trip to the Twilight Zone or a Star Trek alternative universe and take a look at a couple of examples of what happens when you place other players’ careers into the “Coors Field simulator.”

In 1993, the San Diego Padres had a proverbial fire sale. Gary Sheffield was traded to the expansion Florida Marlins. Fred McGriff was traded to the Atlanta Braves. What if the Crime Dog had been traded to baseball’s other expansion team in the summer of 1993 and spent the rest of his career hitting in the Mile High air? What would the career statistics of Carlos Delgado or Lance Berkman have looked like had they spent their entire careers in Colorado?

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Note: this graphic lists “3 teams” for McGriff because of his years in Toronto and San Diego before the Rockies existed.

Anyway, on this list, Delgado was a “one and done” first-ballot casualty who got less than 5% of the BBWAA vote in 2015. The same fate befell Berkman in 2019, while McGriff had to wait until his first time on the Eras Committee ballot to make the Hall. How would they have fared in the BBWAA Hall voting with the statistics shown above rather than their actual numbers?

What if Todd Helton had signed with the Padres?

As you may recall from earlier in the piece, in 1992 Todd Helton had to choose between going to school at Tennessee or pursuing a baseball career as the 2nd round pick of the San Diego Padres. He chose Tennessee and was then drafted by the Rockies 3 years later. What would Helton’s career have looked like if he had signed with the Padres and spent his entire career playing home games at Qualcomm Stadium and Petco Park?

Well, thanks to the “neutralized statistics” tool, we can actually do this. To do it properly, you need to create an Excel spreadsheet and do it year by year. The simulator picks one specific year and one specific ballpark. If you take Helton’s career statistics, you can choose the Padres but have to pick a specific year. So you need to first do 1997, then 1998, then 1999, etc.

Anyway, here’s what the simulator puts forth for Helton if he had spent his life as a member of the Padres.

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Whoa! Instead of hitting .300 12 times in his career, the Padres simulator gives him 3 such seasons. Instead of 5 campaigns with 100+ RBI, life in San Diego might have provided 2.

The Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor

Another tool on Baseball Reference is Bill James’ Hall of Fame Monitor, an invention of his from the 1980s that counts statistical accomplishments and the likelihood that they will result in a Hall of Fame plaque. 100 “points” means a borderline Hall of Famer, while 130 is a “virtual lock.” Those accomplishments include things such as .300 seasons or being a career .300 hitter.

In real life, Todd Helton scores 175 points on the James Hall of Fame Monitor. However, if you count the numbers with his hypothetical San Diego numbers, he only gets 62.5 points. What a difference a ballpark can make!!

By the way, if you plug Helton’s numbers into an entire career in San Francisco or Los Angeles, you will get slightly better but similarly poor results. If you plug his statistics into an Arizona simulator, however, it looks much better, yielding a Hall of Fame monitor score of 113.

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Chase Field in Phoenix is not Coors Field, but it has always been a hitters’ park. The point of the final “simulation” is to remind us that Coors is not unique as a ballpark that inflates a hitter’s statistics. Coors just gives hitters a bigger buzz than any other ballpark in history.

For more on this, I encourage you to look at this piece I wrote about the Hall of Fame candidacy of Larry Walker (with much more on the Coors effect). However, feel free to check out the Walker piece after reading this final section about Todd Helton.

The Scribes Weigh In

Before offering my own conclusion, here are the thoughts of some of the men and women who actually have a say in the matter, members of the BBWAA.

First, a few in favor:

“Focusing on the disparity between Helton’s home/road splits punishes him for playing his entire career at Coors Field, an element out of his control. He made the best of a good situation by becoming the greatest Rockie ever.”

— David Haugh, 670 The Score (Dec. 19, 2023)

“Yes, I know where he played every one of his home games during his 17-year career. Coors Field is a notorious hitter’s park. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Well, I’m not going to punish him for a circumstance beyond his control. I choose reward him for a career OPS of .953, for slugging over .600 four times, for having more walks (1,335) than strikeouts (1,175), and for his .316 lifetime average. It’s that simple.”

— Bob Ryan, The Boston Globe (Jan. 12, 2022)

“Helton’s seven-year peak WAR of 46.6 is more robust than his career mark, 10th at the position and 4.5 wins above the standard; of the nine players above him, only Bagwell and Pujols were contemporaries, with the latter the only one from that top 10 outside the Hall… Yes, his raw stats were propped up by Coors Field, inflating his Hall of Fame Monitor score to 175, but the adjustments for park and league, and the inclusion of his defensive prowess, tell us he was more than just a mile-high mirage.”

— Jay Jaffe, FanGraphs (Nov. 28, 2022)

“Helton defined the Rockies for a generation… Helton was not a creation of Coors Field. He was one of the most talented baseball players of his generation, a consistent force and reliable producer who happened to play home games at high altitude.

— Sam Mellinger, Kansas City Star (Dec. 31, 2020)

And, now, a few writers in the “no” column”

“Nothing against overheated Coors Field, but the bulk numbers aren’t quite there for a first baseman in that atmosphere.”

— Jon Heyman, New York Post (Dec. 18, 2023)

“To me, Helton falls just short. While there’s no denying some of the superb seasons he had in the first third of his career, Helton’s last nine years with the Rockies were quite pedestrian. In those last nine years, beginning with his age-31 season, Helton had one season of 20 or more homers and just three seasons with more than 80 RBI. For a run-producing player, at an offensive position (first), his elite production was limited to about seven seasons.”

— Sean McAdam, MassLive (Jan. 5, 2024)

“Good player who had the luxury of playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark for the entirety of his career. The gap in his home/road splits is staggering. His numbers at the road venues he played the most — Arizona, Dodger Stadium, Oracle Park, Petco Park — are mixed. A Rockies icon to be sure. But not a Hall of Famer.”

— Will Graves, Associated Press (Dec. 27, 2021)

“Despite playing in Coors Field, Helton didn’t pop more than 20 home runs after his Age 30 season, and his overall production dropped off the table after his Age 33 season. He was great in his first decade, no doubt about that, but he was barely an average first baseman in those last six years… He was basically a singles/doubles hitter playing what should be a potent power spot on the diamond.”

— Ryan Fagan, The Sporting News (Jan. 3, 2022)

Conclusion: is Todd Helton a Hall of Famer?

Do Todd Helton’s neutralized statistics matter? Would Helton be as strong a Hall of Fame candidate if he had spent his career in San Diego or San Francisco? Maybe. If you believe in the methodology behind WAR and OPS+, those statistics would theoretically be the same regardless of his home ballpark.

In the real world, the combination of Helton’s home and road statistics yielded a 133 OPS+, which does take the Coors advantage into consideration.

All told, over 9,453 career plate appearances, Helton was about 33% better than the average player in the fundamental hitting skills of getting on base and hitting for extra bases. No matter what ballpark he played in, Helton had a keen eye at the plate and was a doubles machine with respectable home run pop. In addition, as we’ve seen, he was an excellent defensive first baseman.

Todd Helton is a borderline Hall of Famer, but that’s hardly something to be embarrassed about. His road stats trouble me, but, to be fair, the Rockies as a team are consistently the worst-hitting road team. The players on the Rockies have to make adjustments all year long for breaking balls that don’t break at Coors and fall off a table on the road. It’s not an easy thing to do full-time, especially for 17 years. While perhaps Helton under-performed in road games, he over-performed in home games, even by the lofty Mile High standards.

For me, Todd Helton is over the borderline and is easily one of the ten best players on the 2024 ballot. He deserves to be honored for what he actually did, not what he might have or might have done if he hadn’t played in Colorado.

The greatest player in the history of the Colorado Rockies deserves a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, and if he can clear the 75% bar when the results are announced, he will have one in July 2024.

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