Bartolo Colon: Big Sexy Turns 45

This past Thursday, Texas Rangers pitcher Bartolo Colon turned 45 years of age. As I was sitting in front of my computer at home, one of my best friends, knowing that I am an expert on the baseball Hall of Fame, sent me a text asking if Bartolo was a Hall of Famer. The instant reply from me was “no.”

My friend engaged further, asking “do you put Colon in if he wins 300?” My reply was “there is no way he wins 300.” His response: “what if he goes Satchel Paige and pitches into his 50’s?” After all, even as he passes his 45th birthday, Colon still occasionally shows flashes of brilliance. After all, just a little over a month ago, Big Bart squared off with the Houston Astros’ Justin Verlander and tossed seven innings of perfect baseball.

That’s right, sports fans. In case you missed it, the 44-year old Colon took on the defending World Series champion Astros and retired 21 straight batters before giving up a walk, double, and sacrifice fly in the 8th. All told, in 63.1 innings this year, Colon has a 2-2 record with a 3.55 ERA, not bad for someone 5 years away from eligibility for an AARP card.

Anyway, since this is the “off-season” in the Hall of Fame voting cycle and he had just reached a milestone birthday, it occurred to me that there would never be a better opportunity to write about the Hall of Fame candidacy of Bartolo Colon. I wondered, years from now, if I would be tortured by the knowledge that I had missed this singular opportunity. So, in this brief entry to “Cooperstown Cred,” I will lay out a Hall of Fame case for the lovable 285-pound right-hander dubbed “Big Sexy.”

And then, with all due respect and love for the big man, I will trash that case.

Cooperstown Cred: Bartolo Colon

• Career: 242-178 (.576), 4.04 ERA, 2,494 strikeouts
• Career: 49.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement), 108 park-adjusted ERA+
• 2005 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (21-8, 3.48 ERA)
• 3 other seasons in top 6 of Cy Young voting
• 4-time All-Star

(cover photo: CBS Sports)

The Cooperstown case for Bartolo Colon starts with this: he has better career statistics in multiple categories than several pitchers already enshrined into the Hall of Fame.

This is what we call the “lowest common denominator” argument, an argument that, if taken to its logical end, would elect hundreds of additional Hall of Famers.

Colon’s career pitching WAR of 49.2 is higher than 12 starting pitchers who have been granted a plaque in the Hall of Fame, including Dizzy Dean, Catfish Hunter, and the recently elected Jack Morris.

(By the way, as an aside, Morris’ induction is going to be used for decades as a baseline for other pitchers: “well, his WAR was higher than Morris'” or “his ERA was lower than Morris.” I’m not going to go into why Morris belongs in Cooperstown in this piece but if you’re curious about why I feel that way you can read about it here). 

OK, back to Big Bart. Colon has won 242 games in the major leagues, a feat that is becoming increasingly difficult in the age of bullpen specialization.

Colon is the majors’ active leader in wins. His 242 career total is better than 23 enshrined starting pitchers, including Whitey Ford, Jim Bunning, Hunter, Pedro Martinez, John Smoltz, Don Drysdale, Sandy Koufax and Dean.

Although, Colon would be the first Hall of Famer enshrined with a career ERA over 4.00, he pitched during the steroid era and his park and pitching era-adjusted ERA+ (which is 108) is the same as Don Sutton‘s and superior to six Hall of Fame starters.

Colon is a much better athlete than one would expect from such a portly man. He’s a very good fielder as a pitcher; he led the N.L. with 40 assists from the mound with the New York Mets in 2016, at the age of 43. Take a look at this play! And this one!

Barolo Colon: One of a Kind

Colon, by pitching into the middle of his 40’s, has also accomplished something nobody else has ever done. He’s pitched for 8 different American League teams. Quick, see if you can name them, plus the 3 N.L. squads for whom he toed the rubber.

Finally, there’s this: Bartolo Colon is one of the most colorful characters in the game. This is a 5’11”, 285-pound man with a gut that belongs in a softball beer league who dons the nickname “Big Sexy.” He exhibits pure joy as he plies his trade.

As a hitter with the New York Mets (2014-16), his at bats became must see TV. In 2016, Colon’s first (and only) career home run elicited this announcer call from SNY’s Gary Cohen that it was one of the “great moments in the history of baseball.”

Colon is a career .085 hitter, with a .093 on-base% and .108 slugging%.

Now, back to our trivia question about the teams Colon has pitched for.

The 11 teams for whom Colon toed the rubber are, in order: Cleveland Indians (1997-2002), Montreal Expos (2002), Chicago White Sox (2003 and 2009), Anaheim/Los Angeles Angels (2004-07), Boston Red Sox (2008), New York Yankees (2011), Oakland A’s (2012-13), New York Mets (2014-16), Atlanta Braves (2017), Minnesota Twins (2017) and the Texas Rangers (2018).

Let’s Get Real: Bartolo Colon is not Going to the Hall of Fame

Now that we’ve had a little fun, let’s be honest. Bartolo Colon is not going to be giving a speech in Cooperstown celebrating his induction into the Hall of Fame. OK, I suppose it’s theoretically possible. If, as my friend suggested, he pitched until he was 50 years old.

If, somehow, Colon were to climb from 242 to 300 wins, there would be a Cooperstown case. It’s not going to happen. Phil Niekro has the most career wins for the 45-and-older set with 50. Niekro, of course, threw a knuckle-ball, a pitch almost impossible to master but one that puts considerably less stress on the shoulder and elbow than a fastball, which Colon still tosses in the high 80’s.

The man with the endless career that provides the best example for Bartolo to follow is Jamie Moyer, who won 39 games from his age 45 to age 49 seasons. Moyer finished his career with 269 career wins. That’s the 7th highest total for a non-Hall of Famer starter (behind the PED-linked Roger Clemens, Jim Kaat, Tommy John, Mike Mussina and 19th century hurlers Bobby Mathews and Tony Mullane).

Moyer was on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot and got 2.4% of the vote, less than halfway towards the 5% needed to be eligible for future ballots.

Big Sexy and WAR

Let’s briefly tackle the career WAR issue. Yes, Colon’s is higher than 12 inducted starters. It’s also lower than 51 other starters who are not in the Hall, including 6 who are still active (and much younger).

Even today, WAR is just one of many relevant statistics when talking about a Hall of Fame candidacy. Yes, Bartolo’s WAR that is bigger and sexier than Hunter’s and Morris’. But Catfish has five World Series rings, Morris has three (four if you count 1993 with Toronto when he did not appear in October). Most of the other 10 also won championships. Colon has none.

Since his Cy Young campaign in 2005, Colon’s career has had few highlights. His best year was in 2013 (in Oakland), when he went 18-6 with a 2.65 ERA. This occurred, unfortunately, after a PED suspension for testosterone towards the end of the ’12 season.

Finally, if the case for a Hall of Famer doesn’t feature the achievement of a benchmark milestone then it must feature an extraordinary peak  and/or post-season success. Colon’s peak years were from 1998-2005 (in Cleveland, Montreal, Chicago and Anaheim).

1998-2005: Bartolo Colon’s Peak

Bartolo Colon made his major league debut in April 1997, shortly before his 24th birthday. In a season split between Cleveland and the Tribe’s AAA affiliate in Buffalo, Colon struggled in the majors, going 4-7 with a 5.65 ERA.

Colon was not a part of the Indians’ post-season run, which ended in a Game 7 World Series loss to the Florida Marlins.

In 1998, however, the 25-year old from the Dominican Republic made his first All-Star team and became the ace of the perennial playoff contenders. Colon went 14-9 with a 3.71 ERA (for an excellent adjusted 128 ERA+).

This is a clip of his first career shutout, his first start in 1998. You might notice that the announcer refers to the 22-year old even though Bartolo was actually 24 years old. Like many players from outside the U.S., Colon in his youth claimed he was two years younger than he really was.

The Indians fell to the New York Yankees in six games in the ’98 ALCS but the young and not quite so Big Bartolo shined in Game 3, tossing a four-hitter in a  complete game in a 6-1 victory.

The ’98 season was the beginning of an 8-year run in which Colon was one of the top pitchers in baseball. He was good enough to command a king’s ransom when he was traded (in July 2002) to the Expos in exchange for a package that included future All-Stars Cliff Lee, Grady Sizemore and Brandon Phillips.

In 8 years from 1998-2995, Big Bart was 135-75 with a 3.85 ERA (park-adjusted 119 ERA+). His pitching WAR was 35.7, 6th best in MLB for those 8 seasons (behind Martinez, Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling, Roger Clemens and Mike Mussina). The 5 pitchers ahead of him for those seasons are all in the Hall (Pedro and the Big Unit), should be (Schilling and Mussina) or would be (Clemens) if not for PED use.

Still, the two pitchers right behind Colon on the 1988-2005 WAR list are Tim Hudson and Brad Radke, not Hall of Famers. Colon’s 119 ERA+ for these eight seasons is only 14th best for pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched.

This statistical nugget might surprise you if you’ve watched Colon pitch in his 40’s with impeccable control. In those eight seasons, he walked 3.1 batters per 9 innings, just 46th best among the 74 hurlers with 1,000 innings pitched.

Colon had a very solid eight-season run but, if you take some time to play with Baseball Reference’s “play index,” you can find all sorts of pitchers with better eight-year peaks who are not anywhere close to the Hall of Fame. A recent example is Johan Santana of the Twins and Mets. The Venezuelan lefty was the best in all of MLB from 2003-2010 in WAR, ERA, WHIP and strikeouts.

Santana wasn’t just one of the best six pitchers in baseball for those eight years, he was the best. Unfortunately, Santana’s career ended at the age of 33 and he finished with just 139 wins in 2,025.2 innings thrown. Santana was on this year’s Hall of Fame ballot and, like Moyer, got just 2.4% of the vote. Santana, however, has a real peak value case for the Hall of Fame.

If Colon had been that good for his best eight years and also piled up 242 career wins, he would have a much better chance at a Cooperstown plaque.

Post-Season Record

As for October baseball, Colon has appeared in the post-season 7 times while authoring a 3.49 ERA. 5 of those 7 appearances ended with his team failing to advance past the Division Series.

In his only World Series (with the 2015 Mets), he was the losing pitcher in the Kansas City Royals’ walk-off 14th-inning win in Game 1.

In the series-deciding 5th game, in the top of the 12th inning, Colon yielded a bases-clearing double to Lorenzo Cain. That double turned the Royals’ 4-2 lead into an insurmountable 5-run margin, essentially ending the Fall Classic. Sadly, for this Mets fan, it was the last time I ever saw Bartolo pitch in person.

Final Thoughts

Bartolo Colon did not have a Hall of Fame career but, if you told any baseball writer in November 2005 that Colon would still be pitching reasonably effectively in 2018, you would have predicted a different outcome. Colon had just come off a Cy Young campaign. At the age of 32, he had 139 wins with a 3.94 ERA, a relatively high number but still 16% above league average during the steroid era.

The next half decade didn’t work out for Big Bart. Thanks to shoulder and elbow woes, Colon was limited to just 257 innings while authoring a 5.18 ERA over those five seasons. This essentially ended his chances for Cooperstown and then, as he started to recover his All-Star form, he put a nail in his Hall of Fame coffin with his 2012 PED suspension.

On a personal note, as a fan of the New York Mets, I loved watching Bartolo Colon pitch and it was comic relief in every game watching the big guy flail away with the bat.

Still, Colon was not just the team mascot. On the 2015 Mets, a pennant-winning squad with a staff filled with young stud arms, Colon led the team in innings pitched and tied with Jacob deGrom for the team lead with 14 wins.

In 2016, Colon went 15-8 with a 3.43 ERA, joining Noah Syndergaard and Jeurys Familia as pitching All-Stars. Even at the age of 43, he led the team in innings and wins and was 3rd in pitching WAR (behind deGrom and Syndergaard).

Bartolo Colon will not be going into the Hall of Fame. But he’ll be forever in the Hall of Fun and he had a long, highly productive MLB career. Here’s to hoping he’s still pitching late into his 40’s.

Thanks for reading.

Follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.