Future Hall of Fame Candidates: N.L. West

Clayton Kershaw headlines our list of active future Hall of Fame candidates who are plying their trades in the National League West. This is the second part of a six-part series highlighting the players who are on the way to Cooperstown as well as some who have a chance but have a lot of serious work to do.

In the first part of this series, we featured the stars of the American League West. You can click here to take a look at Albert Pujols, Adrian Beltre, Justin Verlander and many others who have Hall of Fame aspirations.

Before we get started with the N.L. West, let’s go over the ground rules again. In order to be eligible for the Hall of Fame, a player must have service time in 10 different MLB seasons. I’ll comment on many of these players. In addition, for a handful current stars who have played between 6 and 9 seasons, I’ll take a look at their cases as well, recognizing that it’s still early.

Generally speaking, I won’t comment extensively on players with 5 years of service time or less. Some of these young players sure look like future Hall of Famers right now but baseball history is littered with young stars who flamed out after burning brightly in their first few seasons.

As I did with the first piece, to allow people to tease me in the years to come, I’m going to throw out some unscientific odds at each player eventually getting a Hall of Fame plaque. With these odds, I’m going to make the assumption that none of the players profiled below will ever be suspended in the future for use of PEDs. These predictions are based on past and predicted future performance only.

In this piece we’ll make extensive references to the statistics WAR (Wins Above Replacement), OPS+ (ballpark adjusted on-base + slugging%) and ERA+ (ballpark adjusted ERA). For more on these advanced metrics, please visit the Glossary.

(cover photo: New York Times)

Los Angeles Dodgers

The 2017 Dodgers were filled with excellent players but not dominated by anyone, not even the great Clayton Kershaw, who missed the month of August due to a back injury. This was a team of many useful and versatile players. Not a single Dodger made the top 7 of the MVP vote but five of them were in the top 20.

The Dodgers got key performances from Corey Seager, Chris Taylor, Yasiel Puig and rookie Cody Bellinger. It’s far to soon to talk about the Hall of Fame for any of them.

Justin Turner, the MVP of the NLCS, has become a great player for the Dodgers and has finished in the top 10 of the N.L. MVP voting for the last two years. But Turner is 33 years old and has only recently become a full-time player. He’s only had 2,852 plate appearances in his 9-year career. There’s no precedent for a 20th or 21st century Hall of Fame player with even close to that few PA through his age 32 season.

That leaves us with three players to profile, a Hall of Fame lock, a maybe and a “too early to call.”

Clayton Kershaw (29 years old)

• Career: 144-64, 2.36 ERA, 161 ERA+, 57.4 WAR
• 7-time All-Star
• 3-time N.L. Cy Young Award winner (2011, 2013, 2014) (also won 2014 MVP)

If Clayton Kershaw were forced to retire tomorrow due to an injury, he would almost be inducted into the Hall of Fame based on what he’s already accomplished in his first 10 seasons in Major League Baseball. Kershaw, who will turn 30 on March 19, has accomplished all of this in his 20’s.

The long-time lefty ace of the Los Angeles Dodgers, Kershaw’s career 2.36 ERA is the best in all of MLB in the last 100 years (for pitchers with a minimum of 1,500 innings pitched). His career adjusted ERA+ of 161 is best in the history of the game (again, with that 1,500 IP minimum).

From 2011-2017 (among the 43 pitchers with at least 1,000 innings pitched), Kershaw is best among all MLB pitchers in ERA, park-adjusted ERA+, WAR (Wins Above Replacement), WHIP, SO/BB ratio, BAA (Batting Average Against), complete games, shutouts, and won-loss percentage.

In the last 7 years, he’s won three Cy Young Awards, finished 2nd twice, 3rd once and a mere 5th in 2016 (when injuries limited him to 149 innings).

The only negative thing anyone can say about what Clayton Kershaw has accomplished on the mound is his mediocre October record. In 24 post-season appearances, Kersh is a mere 7-7 with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA. He had the chance to put all of the negative October noise behind him last fall in his first appearance in the World Series. He got off to a great start, tossing 7 innings of 1-run ball (with 0 walks and 11 strikeouts) in the Dodgers’ Game 1 win over Houston.

In Game 5 in Houston, however, he blew a 4-0 lead when he gave up all 4 of those runs in the bottom of the 4th inning. After the Dodgers scored 3 runs in the top of the 5th, Kershaw got the first two batters out to start the bottom of the frame. Unfortunately, using 18 pitches, he walked the next two batters; manager Dave Roberts gave him the hook and Jose Altuve hit a game-tying 3-run home run off Kenta Maeda to tie the score.

Houston would go on to win the epic Game 5 by a 13-12 score in 10 innings and, ultimately, the World Series.

So, right now Kershaw has the regular season career to match (surpass, even) another Dodgers’ lefty ace of yesteryear, Sandy Koufax. But the Left Arm of God has 3 World Series rings, earning MVP honors in 1963 and 1965.

Hall of Fame odds — 99%

I think he’s already accomplished enough to get into the Hall but if injuries were to derail his career, some voters might not agree.

Chase Utley (39 years old)

• Career: 258 HR, 1,011 RBI, 1,850 hits, .276 BA, 118 OPS+, 65.4 WAR
• 6-time All-Star
• Career: 151 SB, 21 CS (88% success rate, best all time in MLB with 100 min SB)

At 39 years of age, Chase Utley, recently signed a two-year free agent contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers for $2 million, which in today’s game amounts to a bag of peanuts, albeit in a King Kong sized bag.

With the obvious acknowledgement that, at 39, Utley’s years as an All-Star are likely over, the Silver Fox has two reasons to hang around for another two seasons as a part-time player. The first is the pursuit of another World Championship. “The Man” likes winning and is used to it, having appeared in the post-season in 8 of his last 11 MLB seasons. The second reason is to pad his stats to make himself a more viable Hall of Fame candidate.

Utley didn’t become a full-time player until 2005 and, from that year through 2009, he was one of the best players in the game. Playing with the Philadelphia Phillies, according to WAR he was the 2nd best player in baseball during those five seasons, behind only Albert Pujols.

Utley occupies that lofty perch primarily because of defensive metrics that place him as the best defensive player in the game during those five years. In addition, Utley in his prime was a superb base-runner.

Finally, he was an excellent hitter, especially for a 2nd baseman. For those five seasons, he led all 2nd sackers in home runs, RBI, runs scored, on-base%, slugging% and OPS, by large margins in most of those categories. He averaged 29 home runs with 101 RBI and 111 runs scored while batting .301 during those five great seasons.

Throw in a World Series ring with the 2008 Phillies and his 5-HR Reggie Jackson-esque performance in a losing effort in 2009 and you have the foundation of a Hall of Fame case.

Unfortunately, starting in 2010, Utley started to battle injuries and he’s struggled since then to put together a full season. From 2010 to 2017 with the Phillies and Dodgers, Utley has averaged just 120 games per season. During those seasons, Utley hit .258 with an average of 12 home runs and 53 RBI per season, along with a 106 OPS+, still above average but far below the 135 OPS+ he posted from 2005-2009.

So, has Chase Utley’s career been Hall of Fame worthy? To those who are devotees to sabermetrics, the answer is yes due to his 65.4 career WAR. He was a great all-around player; great hitter, great fielder, great base-runner, and a team leader. MLB Network’s Brian Kenny, who owns a big megaphone, laid it out on Twitter just a couple of weeks ago.

Taken at face value, that’s a compelling case. The problem is that the basis for his WAR being this high rests in part upon out-of-this world defensive metrics. According to the Baseball Reference fielding component of WAR, Chase Utley is the 3rd best defensive 2nd baseman in MLB history (behind Bill Mazeroski and Joe Gordon).

The metrics that place him as the greatest defensive 2nd sacker in the last half century are not backed up with any accolades, however, Utley never won a Gold Glove, despite being a great hitter and a perennial All-Star for a winning team. By the way, until recently, being a great hitter helped players win Gold Gloves.

If you distrust the defensive metrics and look upon Utley’s Hall of Fame case based on his offensive resume, you have to take into account the following:

• He’s only played 140 games 5 times in his career
• He’s only hit .300 twice
• He’s only gotten more than 180 hits once
• He’s only managed a .400 on-base% once
• He’s career total of 1,850 hits is just 32nd best among 2nd basemen
• His 258 career HR is 7th best for 2nd basemen but 119 less than Jeff Kent‘s 377
• His 1,011 RBI are only 16th best, 573 fewer than Kent’s 1,584
• His 1,085 career runs scored are only 22nd best
• Using another advanced metric on Baseball Reference, his 1,210 Runs Created are 13th best, 287 behind Kent and just 33 more than Ray Durham
• Using the batting component of WAR, he’s ranked 16th, behind 10 Hall of Famers plus Kent, Robinson Cano, Bobby Grich, and Larry Doyle.

You’ll notice the name Jeff Kent a lot on the bullet points above. What’s keeping Kent far away from the Hall of Fame is likely the perception that he was a lousy defensive player (and maybe the fact that he was prickly with the media). The metrics mostly agree with the “poor defender” notion although, ironically, his WAR component from fielding is almost the same as Roberto Alomar’s. Alomar won 10 Gold Gloves.

Yes, Jeff Kent’s defensive metrics (according to Baseball Reference) are nearly identical to Roberto Alomar’s. Does this cause you to lose just a little faith in those numbers?

On the positive side of the ledger, Utley’s career WAR of 65.4 is 13th among 2nd sackers. On the “so what” side, he’s just behind Willie Randolph’s 65.5.

What’s the point of all of this? The point is that the case for Chase Utley for the Hall of Fame relies almost exclusively on Wins Above Replacement and one of the components that goes into his high WAR (his fielding prowess) is not backed up by any Gold Glove hardware. Right now, his case is similar to Scott Rolen‘s.

Rolen, another Phillie star who was traded to St. Louis a year before Utley debuted in the City of Brotherly Love, is a current Hall of Fame candidate who has a case mixing high offensive value with high defensive value. Rolen’s career WAR is 70.0. The difference is that Rolen’s defensive prowess is backed up by 8 Gold Gloves.

Rolen got just 10% of the BBWAA vote in his first year on the ballot.

The point to this boring story is that Chase Utley is going to be a really controversial Hall of Fame case when his time comes. He’s wise to keep playing as long as he’s wanted. He can add to his “counting stats” and, if his WAR surpasses 70, the future version of the BBWAA will likely look more kindly on his Cooperstown resume than the current BBWAA is looking upon those belonging to Rolen and Kent.

Hall of Fame odds — 50% 

If he were on the current clogged ballot right now, Utley’s odds would be less than 10% but he won’t be making his ballot debut for another seven years at least. That will help him a lot.

Kenley Jansen (30 years old)

• Career: 230 saves, 2.08 ERA, 183 ERA+, 0.872 WHIP, 14.0 SO/9
• 2-time All-Star
• Career WHIP of 0.872 is best in MLB history (minimum 400 innings)

Kenley Jansen has only completed 8 MLB seasons (all with the Dodgers) so it’s a little bit early to contemplate his Cooperstown chances.

Physically, the converted catcher from Curacao is the biggest top-flight closer in the history of the game. At 6 feet 5 inches and 275 pounds, Jansen has the size of a football player.

Despite his size, Jansen is not the fasting gun in the West but his cutter is as devastating as the one authored by the greatest relief pitcher of all-time, Mariano Rivera.

Jansen is getting better every year. From 2014 to 2017, his ERA has declined from 2.76 to 2.41 to 1.83 to 1.32. In 2017, his best year to date, he saved 41 games, blowing only 1.

Besides that, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts has been aggressive in pushing the envelope beyond the typical “clean 9th inning” usage of most closers today. In 12 of Jansen’s 41 saves, he recorded 4 or more outs.

Jansen and others through their Age 29 Seasons

It’s still early, but look at how Jansen compares (through his age 29 season) to other big-time closers.

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The amazing thing about this graphic is how Jansen (along with Craig Kimbel and Aroldis Chapman) compare to Rivera and Trevor Hoffman at the same time in their respective careers.

It’s very hard to predict how pitchers will perform as they age but Jansen certainly looks like he could last. Even at his size, Jansen doesn’t rely on a 100 MPH fastball, he relies on his cutter and slider. The other two top active closers (Chapman and Kimbrel) are throwing major heat.

If you I had to guess which of those three would be more durable, in my opinion the one least likely to have the name Tommy John attached to his career is Jansen.

Hall of Fame odds — 30%

If you’re picking a “Hall of 30 or younger closer” he’s already in but there’s a long way to go for the real thing. He’ll have to remain a top flight closer for another 7 years or more and that’s no sure thing.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants had the worst record in the National League in 2017 but this is an even year and the team acquired two franchise icons (Andrew McCutchen of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Evan Longoria of the Tampa Bay Rays) to bolster their roster this off-season. With McCutchen and Longoria on the roster, the team now has at least 5 veterans who have a legitimate shot at a future Cooperstown plaque.

Not included in these profiles is fan favorite Hunter Pence. For seven years (2008-2014), Pence was one of the most durable players in the game, averaging 159 contests per season. The last three campaigns haven’t been so kind; he’s only played 97 games per year. Pence will turn 35 this April. He’d have to duplicate his best season five times to even have a sniff at the Hall of Fame. Not going to happen.

Madison Bumgarner (28 years old)

• Career: 104-76 (.578 WL%), 3.01 ERA, 123 ERA+, 28.2 WAR
• 4-time All-Star
• Career post-season: 8-3, 2.11 ERA in 102.1 IP

This is going to be short and sweet. Considering what he’s already accomplished, it’s incredible to note how young Madison Bumgarner is. Until he decided to derail his 2017 campaign in a dirt bike accident, Mad Bum was the epitome of durability, having tossed 200 or more inning for six years in a row.

In terms of regular season dominance, Bumgarner has not matched the performances of Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Corey Kluber or Chris Sale. But if you asked 30 MLB managers which of that quintet they would choose for a must-win game, you might get 30 out of 30 to pick Mad Bum.

On his Baseball Reference page, Bumgarner’s “most similar” pitchers through his age 27 season are Steve Carlton, Fergie Jenkins, Bret Saberhagen, Frank Tanana, Jim Kaat and Don Sutton.

Because they’re both tall left-handers, it’s appropriate that Carlton is the #1 comp with Bumgarner. Now, since today’s game is so dominated by bullpen usage and pitch count limits, there’s virtually no chance Bumgarner will approach Lefty’s 329 wins. However, like Carlton, with his big 6’5″, 250-pound frame and easy delivery, he may very well maintain his current level of effectiveness for another decade or more.

Bumgarner has pitched 1,508.2 innings in 7 1/2 seasons. If he can come even close to duplicating what he’s already done for another 7 1/2 campaigns, he’ll be an easy call for the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame odds — 70% 

That’s a big number, an unscientific number, for a player so young. I’m making that call in part on the assumption that he will get a lot of goodwill for his post-season legend, if not from the BBWAA then from some future version of the Veterans’ Committee.

He’s going to miss time for the second consecutive season due to injury but neither injury has had anything to do with the way he pitches. The dude just looks like he’s built to last. He got off to a good start and if his numbers are close to Cooperstown standards when he’s finished, somehow he’s going to get in.

I don’t even like to think about a future Hall of Fame without Madison Bumgarner in it.

Buster Posey (30 years old)

• Career: 128 HR, 594 RBI, 1,163 hits, .308 BA, 135 OPS+, 37.5 WAR
• 5-time All-Star
• 1 Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger
• 2010 Rookie of the Year (.305 BA, 18 HR, 67 RBI, 133 OPS+)
• 2012 N.L. MVP (.336 BA, 24 HR, 103 RBI, 171 OPS+)

Buster Posey was the 5th player taken in the 2008 draft and was the N.L. rookie of the year just two years later, all while helping his team win their first World Series title in San Francisco. His sophomore season was ended prematurely by a brutal collision at home plate, a play that later prompted the “Posey rule” outlawing most home plate collisions.

In the 6 seasons since his lost 2011 campaign, Posey has won an MVP trophy, another 2 World Series rings, made 5 All-Star teams, won 4 Silver Sluggers and has universally been acclaimed as the top hitting catcher in baseball.

What will ultimately decide whether Posey gets a plaque in Cooperstown will be how long he continues to catch. In the last 6 seasons, Posey has hit .311 with an average of 18 HR, 84 RBI and a 137 OPS+. That level of offensive production is Hall of Fame worthy for a catcher. It’s borderline Hall of Fame worthy for a 1st baseman.

An obvious comparison is with the Minnesota Twins’ Joe Mauer, who was moved off the dish to first base after the 2013 season. Mauer was on a Hall of Fame track as a catcher. He still is likely to get there but it’s not the sure thing that it once was.

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Mauer’s numbers are superior but what Posey has that Mauer doesn’t is three World Series rings. That will count for a lot.

If Posey is able to stay behind the plate and keep hitting the way he has for another three or four seasons, he’s probably going to be in the Hall of Fame.

Hall of Fame odds — 80% (if he becomes a full time 1st baseman in the next year or two, drop the odds)

Andrew McCutchen (31 years old)

• Career: 203 HR, 725 RBI, 1,463 hits, .291 BA, 136 OPS+, 40.0 WAR
• 5-time All-Star
• 1 Gold Glove, 4-time Silver Slugger
• 2013 N.L. MVP (21 HR, 84 RBI, .317 BA, .404 OBP, .508 SLG, 157 OPS+)

Andrew McCutchen made his Major League debut in 2009 with the Pittsburgh Pirates at the age of 22 and played well enough to finish 4th in the Rookie of the Year voting. In 2011, he made his first All-Star squad.

From 2012-2015 he was undoubtedly one of the best players in baseball. He won the 2013 N.L. MVP and finished in the top 5 in the 3 other seasons. By WAR, he was the second best position player only to Mike Trout for these four seasons. For these four campaigns, Cutch averaged .313 with a .404 OBP, .523 SLG and 157 OPS+ (4th best in MLB to Trout, Miguel Cabrera and Joey Votto). Andrew McCutchen, in every way, looked like a Hall of Famer in the making.

In 2016, McCutchen’s production fell off a cliff. His OPS+ was just 104, barely above average. The defensive metrics on Baseball Reference ranked him as the worst defensive player in baseball. His WAR was in negative territory (-0.7).

After an off-season filled with trade rumors, Cutch rebounded a bit with a streaky feast or famine 2017 (2.5 WAR, 121 OPS+) but he still did not play at an All-Star level. A little over six weeks ago, McCutchen was traded away from the only franchise he had ever known, sent to the San Francisco Giants.

The question of the day is whether McCutchen is on a Hall of Fame track. If you took an old magic 8-ball, the correct answer would be “outlook hazy.”

As WAR becomes a statistic more widely embraced in the BBWAA community, McCutchen’s career WAR of 40 through his age 30 season has positioned him well. He’ll be moving to right field for the Giants but, having spent the first 9 years of his career in center, when his career is over he’ll likely have spent more than half of it patrolling the most important outfield position. When his career numbers are analyzed, he’ll be compared to other center fielders.

Although there’s no guarantee the Giants will re-sign him beyond 2018, McCutchen will also benefit from being on a team where he isn’t the biggest star. Posey and Bumgarner are the big kahunas in San Francisco. Without the pressure of being the face of a franchise, he may thrive.

There are two big dark clouds, however. The first is that he is now two full seasons removed from his All-Star form. He went on a 70-game tear last summer in which he hit .352 with 17 HR, 52 RBI and a 1.084 OPS. Unfortunately, in his last 39 games, he hit .242 with a meager .699 OPS. That 70-game hot streak represented the only glimmer of his Hall of Fame form in the last two years.

The other dark cloud is that, when you look at his record, McCutchen hasn’t done the things that are usually expected of Hall of Famers. His career high of home runs is 31. He’s never driven in 100. He’s only scored 100 runs once. He’s never gotten 200 hits.

If McCutchen were to precisely duplicate his 2017 statistics for 9 years in a row, he would finish his age 39 season with 455 home runs, 2,894 hits and a career WAR of 62.5. That would probably be more than enough for a Hall of Fame plaque. But that’s a big ask.

It’s more likely that his production will decline in his late 30’s. For McCutchen to become a Hall of Famer, he’ll probably need to have one or two more big years along the way, years in which he’s in the MVP discussion. What he does this season, his first in a new city, will likely be the compass that will chart the direction of his hopeful journey to Cooperstown.

Hall of Fame odds — 30% 

It’s more likely than not that his career is on the type of downward trajectory that will keep him short of Cooperstown. Nothing would make me happier than to have to eat those words.

Evan Longoria (32 years old)

• Career: 261 HR, 892 RBI, 1,471 hits, .270 BA, 125 OPS+, 50.0 WAR
• 3-time All-Star
• 3 Gold Gloves, 2008 Rookie of the Year

At the end of Evan Longoria’s fourth MLB season, it sure looked like he was on a glide path to the Hall of Fame. The 25-year old 3rd baseman had established himself as one of the game’s great two-way players, a power hitter who provided superb defense at the hot corner.

Longoria already had a Rookie of the Year award, two Gold Gloves and three post-season appearances in those first four campaigns. His WAR for his first four seasons was 27.4, highest in the history of baseball for any third sacker over the course of his first four campaigns.

His legend was burnished by his two home runs in the 162nd game of the 2011 season. A game-tying 8th inning grand slam and 12th inning walk-off solo tater propelled the Tampa Rays into the playoffs for the third time.

A pesky hamstring injury limited Longoria to just 74 games in 2012. For the last five years, the face of the Rays franchise played in more games than any other player in the game (he missed just 13 contests out of 811).

Despite his durability, Longo is no longer one of the very top 3rd sackers in the game. He’s been surpassed by Josh Donaldson, Nolan Arenado, Manny Machado and Kris Bryant. Even in his late 30’s, Adrian Beltre has been more productive.

So, where does that leave Longoria as a Hall of Fame candidate as he enters his age 32 season in a new league and city? Just a few weeks before acquiring the face of the Pirates in McCutchen, the Giants traded for the greatest player in Rays’ franchise history. Unlike McCutchen, who can be a free agent after the 2018 campaign, Longo has five more years on the $100 million contract extension he signed with Tampa Bay.

Third base is the most underrepresented position in the Hall of Fame. Chipper Jones last month became just the 14th player from the hot corner to be elected to the Hall of Fame (the number 14 includes Paul Molitor, who played multiple positions).

So let’s look at how Longoria stacks up against the top third sackers from the last 30 years. The comparison is for each player through their age 31 season, which Longo just completed.

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From this list, Chipper is now a Hall of Famer and Beltre will join him five years after he retires. Take a close look at how Longoria compares to Scott Rolen and David Wright.

Wright’s career, sadly, appears to be over, cut short by injuries that have limited him to 75 regular season games in the last 3 seasons.

Rolen played through injuries for the last six years of his career (averaging just 108 games played per year), finishing with 316 HR, a 122 OPS+, 8 Gold Gloves and a solid WAR of 70.0. In his first year of eligibility on the BBWAA ballot, he got just 10% of the vote.

If Longoria can surpass Rolen’s production in the final years of his career (not an exceptionally tall task), he’s got a good chance at Cooperstown. What may ultimately determine whether he gets that plaque or not is how his final career numbers stack up against all of the great young third basemen playing today.

It will be hard, however, for Longoria to add to his Gold Glove hardware now that he’s sharing a league with Arenado.

Hall of Fame odds — 50%

Johnny Cueto (32 years old)

• 122-83 (.595 WL%), 3.33 ERA, 121 ERA+, 33.2 WAR
• 2-time All-Star

Johnny Cueto is not currently on a career orbit that one would expect to end with a Hall of Fame speech. If you mapped his numbers on a year by year basis, you would get a graph that looks like the volatile inter-day trading on the stock market. As Dick Vitale likes to say about college basketball players, Cueto is a Dow Joneser; he’s up and down.

In even-numbered campaigns since 2012, Cueto has pitched like a Hall of Famer. In the other seasons he’s either been ineffective or shelved due to injury. A pitcher who is great in even-numbered seasons seems like a great fit for the San Francisco Giants!

Take a look at the average of Cueto’s three best seasons (2012, 2014 and 2016) and compare them to the rest of his career:

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Cueto, at 32 will have to do better than “every other” to have a snowball’s chance at the Hall but it would not be unprecedented. His 122 wins through his age 31 season is the same number posted by Warren Spahn at the same point in his career. It’s more than the wins posted by 11 Hall of Fame starters at similar stages of their careers, including another former Giants’ starter, Gaylord Perry.

The odds are certainly against Johnny Beisbol making it to Cooperstown but he has the talent to do it if he can stay healthy and pitch to his peak capability.

Hall of Fame odds — 10%

Colorado Rockies

Following the ground rules outlined at the top of the piece, the Colorado Rockies do not have any candidates for the Hall of Fame worth discussing in great detail, except for…

Nolan Arenado (26 years old)

Even though he’s only played for for five seasons, I’m going to make a small exception to my own ground rules and comment briefly about the Rockies brilliant young 3rd baseman. In his short career, Nolan Arenado has made 3 All-Star teams and won 5 Gold Gloves while twice leading the National League in home runs and RBI.

Each year, Arenado’s WAR has gone up (from 3.8 in 2013 to 4.1 to 5.8 to 6.6 to 7.2 in 2017). His five-year WAR of 27.4 is the fifth best for a five-year third baseman in the history of the game. Incidentally, Longoria is 3rd on that list and has since regressed to a merely very good player rather than one who is MVP caliber.

The Rockies have another MVP caliber player, center fielder Charlie Blackmon. As good as he is now, because he was such a late bloomer Blackmon isn’t really a Hall of Fame candidate. He’ll turn 32 on July 1st and has only logged four seasons as a MLB starter.

If he can duplicate his 37 home runs and 217 hits for another three or four seasons in a row, then we can start talking about Chuck Nazty and his beard for a plaque.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Last year the Arizona Diamondbacks, under first-year manager Torey Lovullo, made a quantum leap from 69 wins in 2016 to 93 in 2017, getting back to the playoffs for the first time in 6 years. Leading the Snakes back to the post-season party was their $200 million man, starting pitcher Zack Greinke.

Zack Greinke (34 years old)

• 172-107 (.616 WL%), 3.40 ERA, 123 ERA+, 56.9 WAR
• 4-time All-Star, 4-time Gold Glove Award winner
• 2009 A.L. Cy Young Award winner (runner-up N.L. Cy Young 2015)

When assessing Zack Greinke’s Hall of Fame chances, it’s fair to start by comparing him to the Houston Astros’ post-season hero Justin Verlander. Take a look:

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That’s a remarkable similarity! Verlander’s rookie year was in 2006 with the Detroit Tigers, a team he helped lead to the World Series.

Greinke, despite being 8 months younger, debuted in 2004 with the Kansas City Royals, a team that lost 104 games. Despite toiling with a team that finished last or 2nd to last in the A.L. Central for 7 straight years to start his career, Greinke starts the 2018 campaign with just 16 fewer career wins than Verlander.

Despite having posted nearly identical career numbers, in his 2018 Bill James Handbook, James writes that “I assume Verlander is in (the Hall of Fame) but it will help him if he coasts past 200 career wins” while referring to Greinke as a “serious candidate.”

In his new “Hall of Fame Monitor” (in which 100 is considered the break-even for a Hall of Fame candidacy), Verlander scores with 118 points while Greinke has 75.

The reason why should be fairly obvious. Verlander has an MVP, two no-hitters and more black type, referring to league-leading numbers. In addition, JV has superb post-season statistics, which he augmented dramatically last fall. Greinke is 3-4 with a 4.03 ERA in 11 October starts, including two mediocre efforts last fall.

Greinke is entering the 3rd year of his 6-year, $206.5 million contract with the Diamondbacks. His first year in the desert was mediocre but he rebounded in 2017 with a 17-7 record and 3.20 ERA (149 ERA+). If he can author a few more seasons like 2017, Greinke will have a good chance at the Hall of Fame. He’s a smart guy with multiple quality pitches. I’d bet on him to pitch respectably throughout the last four years of his mega-deal.

Hall of Fame odds — 75%

Paul Goldschmidt (30 years old)

• Career: 176 HR, 627 RBI, 117 SB, .299 BA, 146 OPS+, 34.8 WAR
• 5-time All-Star, 3-time Gold Glove Award winner
• Twice N.L. MVP runner up (2013, 2015, 3rd in 2017)

Now ready to begin his 8th MLB campaign, Paul Goldschmidt has been one of the top first basemen in all of baseball for the last 5 seasons.

He has the combination of being a good hitter for average combined with a high on-base% and power. In addition, he’s a terrific fielder and an excellent base-runner.

Even though he plays a position not known for harboring stolen base artists, Goldy’s 113 thefts in the last six years are the 20th most in baseball and his 80% success rate is 25th best out of the 88 players with 50 steals or more.

In the last five years, here is how Goldy ranks among the 24 first basemen who logged at least 2,000 plate appearances:

• WAR (31.0): 1st
• OPS+ (151): 3rd (Joey Votto, Miguel Cabrera)
• HR (148): 3rd (Chris Davis, Anthony RIzzo)
• RBI (519): 1st
• Runs (504): 1st
• Hits (824): 3rd (Eric Hosmer, Cabrera)
• Doubles (180): 2nd (Rizzo)
• Stolen Bases (95): 1st
• Batting Average (.304): 3rd (Cabrera, Votto)
• On-Base % (.410): 2nd (Votto)
• Slugging % (.543): 1st
• Runs Created (622): 1st
• WAR Runs from Fielding (46.0): 2nd (Rizzo)

In those 13 categories, Goldschmidt leads in seven and is 2nd or 3rd best in the other six. So he’s clearly been the best first baseman in the game for the last five years. Among all MLB position players, Goldy ranks 3d in WAR (behind Mike Trout and Josh Donaldson) for the last five campaigns.

Whether that eventually leads to a Cooperstown plaque will be determined by whether he can keep playing at or near this level. He’s playing at a Hall of Fame caliber right now, with a career profile that looks a lot like the one of recently inducted Jeff Bagwell.

Hall of Fame odds — 40%

Goldschmidt’s odds aren’t higher because he’s only played seven seasons and has a lot of quality competition at first base. Also, his all-around assets (base-running and fielding) could decline significantly in his 30’s.

San Diego Padres

The San Diego Padres are in a full rebuild, easily the worst team on paper in a division with three playoff teams from 2017 and a perennial playoff contender (the Giants) that acquired Andrew McCutchen and Evan Longoria in the off-season.

The Padres, though, did make a big move in the free agent market, singing Kansas City Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer to a 8-year, $144 million contract. This signing was made despite the fact that there’s virtually nothing about the first seven seasons of Hosmer’s career that screams “HALL OF FAME.”

Still, as his agent Scott Boras said on the day of Hosmer’s Padres press conference, “modern-day analytics are proven wrong.” So let’s give the Padres the benefit of the doubt that they committed $144 million to a player that at least has a chance to make it to the Hall.

Eric Hosmer (28 years old)

• Career: 127 HR, 566 RBI, 1,132 hits, .284 BA, 111 OPS+, 14.1 WAR
• 4-time Gold Glove Award winner, 2016 All-Star

It was November 1, 2015. I was sitting in the upper deck of Citi Field for Game 5 of the World Series between the Kansas City Royals and the New York Mets. The Royals were up 3 games to 1 entering Game 5 but found themselves down 2-0 after 8 innings, thanks to eight 8 innings of shutout ball authored by the Mets’ Matt Harvey.

Harvey had crossed the 100-pitch threshold and manager Terry Collins rarely let him go past that magic number. But Harvey talked himself back out to the mound as I, a long-time Mets fan, screamed “nooooooooo” amidst the chorus of cheering fans.

My fears were justified when Lorenzo Cain worked a 7-pitch walk, followed by a stolen base, followed by a run-scoring double to left field by 26-year old Eric John Hosmer.

Jeurys Familia replaced Harvey. Mike Moustakas grounded out to first base as Hosmer moved to third. The next batter, Salvador Perez, hit a ground ball to third baseman David Wright. The Mets’ captain looked Hosmer back to 3rd and then fired to first baseman Lucas Duda. Instantly, Hosmer reversed course and scampered home. Duda’s throw to the plate was wide. Hosmer slid home safely with the tying run.

Three innings later the Royals had a 7-2 win and their first World Championship since 1985.

Hosmer’s scamper home was the type of winning baseball play that Boras was referring to when he was crowing about getting $144 million for his man despite the player’s career WAR of 14.1. In fairness, by age, Hosmer is entering his peak years and he’s coming off his best season; he set career highs in 2017 for his entire slash line (.318 BA, .385 OBP, .498 SLG, which translates to a 132 OPS+).

I’m not going to go into all the reasons why I think this was a bad signing given the length and the dollars committed. The question here is the odds that Hosmer will reward the Padres with a level of performance that turns him into a legitimate Hall of Fame candidate.

Let’s see how Hoz ranks in the 13 categories we used to compare Goldschmidt to the other 23 first basemen who accumulated at least 2,000 PA in the last five seasons:

• WAR (13.0): 11st
• OPS+ (115): 13th
• HR (94): 16th
• RBI (428): 5th (Goldschmidt, Cabrera, Rizzo, Davis)
• Runs (416): 6th (Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Votto, Davis, Freddie Freeman)
• Hits (855): 1st
• Doubles (157): 6th (Rizzo, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Carlos Santana, Cabrera)
• Stolen Bases (33): 4th (Goldschmidt, Wil Myers, Rizzo)
• Batting Average (.292): 6th (Cabrera, Votto, Goldschmidt, Jose Abreu, Freeman)
• On-Base % (.351): 10th
• Slugging % (.449): 14th
• Runs Created (455): 8th (Goldschmidt, Votto, Cabrera, Rizzo, Freeman, Santana, Davis)
• WAR Runs from Fielding (-7.0): 14th

The most surprising number is the last. Hosmer has won 4 Gold Gloves but the metrics on Baseball Reference don’t back up the hardware. Now that he’s playing in the same league as Rizzo and Goldschmidt, it will be difficult for him to add to that number.

The defensive numbers can be questioned but the offensive numbers are what they are and, while they’re not bad, they’re not elite level and explain just one All-Star appearance in 7 seasons.

Again, he’s now in the National League with Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Votto and Freeman. All-Star berths will be hard to come by; his best shot in the next few years might be a result of the “at least one All-Star per team” rule.

So, to establish some Hall of Fame odds, let’s look at the precedent of other first basemen who are in the Hall and where they stood in their respective Cooperstown paths through their age 27 seasons.

Is there a path to Cooperstown for Eric Hosmer?

Hosmer’s career WAR is 14.1. That’s low but not a deal-breaker. Willie Stargell was at 11.5 after his age 27 season. Pops also had fewer home runs and RBI at this point in his career but this is mostly due to nearly 2,000 fewer plate appearances. His OPS+ of 134 during this time period is vastly superior to Hosmer’s 111.

Tony Perez had a 15.1 WAR after his age 27 season with an OPS+ of 120. As students of the Hall of Fame know, however, the Big Dog is considered a borderline Hall of Famer, pushed over the edge by his presence in the middle of the Big Red Machine lineup of the Reds dynasty in the 1970’s.

Hosmer, of course, also has an October story and if he is, during his years in San Diego, able to lead the Padres to their first World Championship, he could enjoy the same benefit of the doubt on the intangibles.

Most first basemen punch their tickets to Cooperstown with the long ball. If Hosmer is going to do it, it’s likely going to have to be through his career hit total. With 1,132 hits through his age 27 season, he is ahead of the pace of a whopping 99 Hall of Fame position players. Included among those 99 are Willie Mays, Rod Carew, Lou Brock, Tony Gwynn, Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Craig Biggio, Nap Lajoie, Paul Waner, all of whom eventually surpassed the 3,000 hit plateau.

For this reason, Bill James’ “Favorite Toy” (from his 2018 Bill James Handbook) gives Eric Hosmer a 18% of reaching 3,000 hits in his career. And thus, although I’m amazed to be writing this, I’m estimating Hosmer’s odds of making the Hall of Fame at 20%.

If the pioneer of the sabermetric movement has a formula that pegs Hosmer’s chances of getting 3,000 hits at 18% then those are the approximate odds for him to make the Hall. In fact, of the unscientific predictions contained in this piece, this particular one is actually mostly based on objective methodology.

Hall of Fame odds — 20%

Please follow me on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

Thanks for reading.

Chris Bodig