The Hall of Fame Case for and against Cole Hamels

Cole Hamels, the MVP of the 2008 National League Championship Series and World Series, is on the Hall of Fame ballot for the first time. Hamels, who last pitched in Major League Baseball in 2020, is the headliner of the twelve first-time candidates on the 2026 BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) ballot for the Hall of Fame.

Hamels, a 6’4″ left-hander, was the ace starting pitcher for the Philadelphia Phillies for nearly a decade. He had an above-average fastball, a curve, and a changeup that evoked memories of Hall of Fame lefty Tom Glavine. Because of his Southern California good looks, teammate Ryan Howard nicknamed him “Hollywood.”

Hamels led the Phillies to five N.L. East titles, two pennants, and a World Series championship. With the Phillies in rebuilding mode in 2015, he was traded to the Texas Rangers and helped lead the team to two straight A.L. West crowns.

At the end of the 2016 season, Hamels had a career record of 136-96 (.586 WL%) with a 3.31 ERA. Though he had never come close to winning a Cy Young Award, Hamels’ career numbers, including a 48.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) at age 32, put him in a position to make a run at a plaque in Cooperstown.

Alas, injuries limited Hamels’ innings and effectiveness for the final four years of his career, and his MLB career ended at age 36 with just 163 wins, 2,698 innings pitched, and 57.9 career pitching WAR. Hamels attempted several comebacks, most recently with the San Diego Padres in 2023, but never pitched again in the majors. Only two starting pitchers have ever been elected to the Hall of Fame with fewer career victories than Hamels’ 163, making him a long shot for Cooperstown.

Nevertheless, given that the workloads of starting pitchers have been significantly less in the 21st century than at any other time in baseball history, Hamels is not easy to dismiss as a Hall of Fame candidate merely by looking at his career statistics. During his first ten full years in the majors (2007-16), Hamels was one of the game’s top five pitchers. In a game today where pitching injuries are so common (as they were for Hamels’ final years), he was a durable presence on the mound, logging more innings than all but two other hurlers (Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez).

An argument can be made that Hamels is the best starting pitcher who will appear on the BBWAA ballot for this and the next two years thereafter, until Zack Greinke becomes eligible in 2029.

After a brief recap of his playing career, I’ll evaluate the pros and cons of the case for Cooperstown for Cole Hamels.

Cooperstown Cred: Cole Hamels (SP)

• Phillies (2006-15), Rangers (2015-18), Cubs (2018-19), Braves (2020)
• Career: 163-122 (.572 WL%), 3.43 ERA
• Career: 123 ERA+, 57.9 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 4-time All-Star
• Finished in the top 10 of the N.L. Cy Young Award voting four times
• 2008 postseason: 4-0, 1.80 ERA (NLCS and World Series MVP)

(cover photo: Yong Kim/Philadelphia Inquirer)

Embed from Getty Images

Cole Hamels: Early Life and Playing Career

Colbert Michael Hamels was born on December 27, 1983, in San Diego. Growing up near the beach, Hamels was a surfer and beach volleyball player in addition to playing soccer and baseball. Hamels attended Meadowbrook Middle School and Rancho Bernardo High School, where he learned how to throw his trademark changeup.

As Jay Jaffe notes in his FanGraphs profile/bio, Hamels grew up idolizing Glavine, but also was fascinated by the changeup of Padres closer Trevor Hoffman. When he learned how to throw it, he was “able to make guys swing and miss by a mile.”

Hamels missed his junior year in high school because of a fractured humerus in his left arm, but returned to dominate his senior year. With his changeup and a 94-mile per hour fastball, Hamels was a strong enough prospect to be a first-round draft pick in the 2002 amateur draft, selected 17th overall by the Philadelphia Phillies.

Hamels was an immediate sensation in the minor leagues, going 6-3 with a 1.34 ERA in 101 innings of Class-A ball. Unfortunately, He only managed 10 starts and 51 total innings in the next two seasons, thanks to a pair of injuries. He was felled by elbow tendinitis in 2004 and a broken pitching hand in 2005 (thanks to a bar fight).

Jaffe notes that, in retrospect, those injuries might “have spared him the overuse to which young pitchers were still subjected.” Hamels was dominant at three minor league levels in early 2006, going 3-1 with a 1.10 ERA. He was called up to the big club on May 12, 2006, to make his major league debut. Pitching in Cincinnati, Hamels threw five scoreless innings on just one hit. Two starts later, after a brief stint on the disabled list, Hamels notched his first MLB win, on the road in Arizona.

Hamels was inconsistent as a rookie, finishing the campaign with a 9-8 record and a 4.08 ERA. He also notched 145 strikeouts in 132.1 innings pitched. The Phillies, under manager Charlie Manuel, went 85-77, missing the playoffs by three games.

Glory Years in Philadelphia

With the reigning N.L. MVP at first base (Ryan Howard), and an All-Star middle infield (Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins), the 2007 Philadelphia Phillies were built to win, at least offensively. Rollins, in fact, during spring training, boldly proclaimed that the Phillies were the “team to beat” in the N.L. East.

The pitching was a different story. The team’s Opening Day starter was Brett Myers, but he was moved to the bullpen after only three starts. Other than Hamels, the Phillies’ top pitchers were 44-year-old Jamie Moyer and 22-year-old rookie Kyle Kendrick.

Hamels, who opened the season as the Phillies’ #2 starter, emerged as the ace in his fourth start of the campaign, a complete-game effort with just one run allowed and 15 strikeouts. He finished the first half of the season with a 10-4 record and 3.72 ERA, which was good enough for his first All-Star berth. The 23-year-old lefty missed a month in August and early September due to a left elbow strain. He returned to make three more starts, the last of which (on September 28th) was a gem: he tossed eight innings of scoreless, six-hit ball, with 13 strikeouts to close out his regular season.

The Phillies famously came back from seven games behind the New York Mets with 17 games to play to barely eke out the N.L. East title, putting the franchise back into the playoffs for the first time since 1993.

Although the Phillies were swept in the N.L. Division Series by the Colorado Rockies, it was a successful campaign in Philadelphia. Rollins was the team’s second straight N.L. MVP, while Hamels finished the season with a 15-5 record and 3.39 ERA, which was good enough for a 6th place finish in the Cy Young Award voting.

Despite the successful campaign, the Phillies had problems on the mound. While Hamels’ numbers were excellent, the rest of the staff posted a 4.96 ERA.

The Phillies acquired closer Brad Lidge from the Houston Astros in the offseason, allowing Myers to move back to the rotation for the 2008 campaign. Hamels had another solid campaign (14-10, 3.09 ERA), Myers chipped in (10-13, 4.55 ERA), while Moyer defied Father Time with a 16-7, 3.71 ERA season at age 45.

The 2008 Postseason

Philadelphia won the N.L. East by three games over the Mets, setting up an NLDS matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Hamels was tabbed for Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park. He tossed eight innings of scoreless, two-hit ball (with one walk and nine strikeouts) to earn the win. The Phils went on to win in four games.

Now in the National League Championship Series, the Phillies faced off against the Los Angeles Dodgers. Again, Hamels was the Game 1 starter and winner, giving up two runs on six hits in seven innings. After Philadelphia took two of the next three contests, Hamels took to the hill again in Game 5 (at Dodger Stadium). Again, he was superb, giving up just one run on five hits in seven innings. The Phillies prevailed 5-1, giving them the pennant and Hamels the NLCS MVP.

Starting Game 1 of the World Series (at Tropicana Field against the Tampa Bay Rays), Hamels was brilliant again, giving up just two runs in seven innings to earn his fourth straight postseason win.

With the Phillies up three games to one, Game 5 was in Philadelphia, with Hamels back on the bump. He gave up two runs in six innings; the score was tied at two in the middle of the sixth, when play was suspended because of rain and swirling winds.

Play did not resume until two days later. Manuel pinch-hit for Hamels to lead off the bottom of the sixth, leading to a go-ahead run. Unfortunately, Ryan Madson blew the chance for Hamels to be a perfect five-for-five in postseason wins by giving up a seventh-inning game-tying home run. The Phillies, however, scored again in the bottom of the frame and went on to win 4-3, capping a five-game series win the the Phillies’ first World Series title since 1980.

Hamels, with a 2.77 World Series ERA, was also named the MVP of the Fall Classic. He became just the fifth player in MLB history to be named the MVP of both the LCS and the World Series, following Willie Stargell, Darrell Porter, Orel Hershiser, and Livan Hernandez.

Overall, in five postseason starts, Hamels went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA.

Embed from Getty Images

Three More Postseason Appearances

Expectations for a dynasty were high for the 2008 World Champion Philadelphia Phillies, and for postseason star Cole Hamels to emerge as one of the top pitchers in baseball. But, unfortunately, 2009 would be the worst of Hamels’ first twelve seasons in Major League Baseball. He was slowed by biceps tendinitis during spring training and didn’t pitch until the team’s fourth game.

Hamels was bombed in his first two starts (12 ER in 9.2 IP) and finished May with a 5.21 ERA. He righted the ship in his next start, with a complete game shutout in Los Angeles, but was inconsistent in his next five outings, going 0-3 with a 6.38 ERA. The 25-year-old southpaw was better in the second half of the campaign, going 6-6 with a 3.81 ERA in his final 17 starts.

Still, overall, his 10-11 record (4.32 ERA) was a disappointment. The team, however, made it back to the postseason, thanks in part to the emergence of rookie lefty J.A. Happ and a deadline deal for another southpaw, Cliff Lee, the reigning A.L. Cy Young Award winner.

Lee was the new #1 starter, and he led the Phillies to a 3-to-1 NLDS win over the Colorado Rockies, with Hamels the loser in Game 2 (5 IP, 4 ER).

With Lee having started Game 4 of the NLDS, Hamels was on the mound at Dodger Stadium for Game 1 of the NLCS. Although it wasn’t his best effort (5.1 IP, 4 ER), Hamels was the victor (over future Hall of Famer Clayton Kershaw). Hamels was on the hill again for Game 5, but was relieved after giving up three runs in 4.1 innings. The Phils went on to win 10-4 to return to the Fall Classic, this time against the New York Yankees.

In the World Series, Lee (2-0, 2.81 ERA) and Chase Utley (5 HR, 8 RBI) were heroes for the Phillies, but the rest of the pitchers had a 6.50 ERA, and the rest of the batters hit .220.

The Yankees won the World Series in six games, with Hamels giving up five runs in 4.1 IP in Game 3. Overall, Hamels posted a 7.58 ERA with seven home runs allowed in 19 innings in the 2009 postseason.

Lee was traded to the Seattle Mariners in the offseason, but the Phillies replaced him with Roy Halladay, another former Cy Young Award winner. The future Hall of Fame righty won his second Cy Young Award in 2010, going 21-10 with a 2.44 ERA. Meanwhile, Hamels regained his previous form, going 12-11 with a 3.06 ERA, and the team acquired a third top-flight starter (Roy Oswalt) in a trade with the Houston Astros. With 97 wins, the Phillies easily won their fourth straight N.L. East title.

Halladay pitched a no-hitter in Game 1 of the NLDS against the Cincinnati Reds, the first in the postseason since Don Larsen’s perfect game in the 1956 World Series. After a Game 2 win, Hamels took the hill in Cincinnati for Game 3 and regained his postseason form, tossing a five-hit, complete-game shutout, with no walks and nine strikeouts, to help the Phils to a three-game sweep.

In the NLCS (against the San Francisco Giants), the teams split the first two games, setting up a Game 3 matchup at AT&T Park between Hamels and Matt Cain. Hamels pitched well (6 IP, 3 runs, 2 ER, 8 K), but Cain and two relievers shut out the Phillies, handing Hamels the loss. The Giants went on to win the pennant in a six-game series.

In 2011, the Phillies brought Lee back to Philadelphia, giving the team an incredible four-man rotation with Halladay, Hamels, and Oswalt.

Oswalt had an off year, but the other three aces were all brilliant. Hamels had arguably the best season of his career. He went 14-9 with a 2.79 ERA, made his second All-Star squad, and finished 5th in the Cy Young Award voting, with Halladay (19-6, 2.35 ERA) and Lee (17-8, 2.40 ERA). Halladay and Lee finished 2nd and 3rd, respectively, in the Cy vote (Kershaw was the winner).

Embed from Getty Images

Thanks to their three aces, the Phils easily won their fifth straight N.L. East crown with an MLB-high 102 wins. Philadelphia matched up against the St. Louis Cardinals in the NLDS as the heavy favorite. After the Phillies won Game 1 behind Halladay, they took a 4-0 lead after two innings in Game 2 with Lee on the bump. Lee, however, couldn’t hold the lead, and the Redbirds rallied for a 5-4 victory.

Hamels was on the hill for Game 3 in St. Louis, and he was brilliant, tossing six scoreless innings (5 hits, 8 strikeouts), leading to a 3-2 victory. Alas, Oswalt lost Game 4, and Chris Carpenter outdueled Halladay for a 1-0 victory in the decisive Game 5.

Final Years in Philadelphia

Although Cole Hamels had another superb season in 2012 (17-6, 3.05 ERA), the rest of the team declined. Howard, Rollins, and Utley were all past their primes, and Halladay’s shoulder woes ended his career as a top-flight starter; he posted a 4.40 ERA in 2012 and 6.82 in 2013 before ending his career. The team went 81-81, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2006. Hamels finished 8th in the Cy Young voting.

Hamels had an off-year in 2013, going 8-14 with a 3.60 ERA, and Manuel didn’t survive the season; he was replaced by the late Ryne Sandberg as the team’s skipper three-quarters of the way through the season. Overall, the Phillies went 73-89.

Although he started the 2014 campaign on the disabled list, Hamels had a strong season, going 9-9 with a 2.46 ERA. On September 1st, Hamels tossed six innings of no-hit ball but was replaced due to having thrown 108 pitches. Three other relievers finished the job for the first combined no-hitter in team history. Hamels earned a 6th-place Cy Young finish, but Sandberg’s Phils were still a second-division squad, going 73-89 again.

By 2015, the Phillies’ superteams of the 2007-11 glory years were a distant memory. Howard was ineffective, Rollins had been traded in the offseason, Halladay had retired, and Lee missed the entire season due to injury (and never pitched again).

Hamels was having an up-and-down campaign in his first 19 starts and was on the trading block. Then, after two terrible starts (6.1 IP, 14 ER), he rebounded by tossing a no-hitter at Wrigley Field in Chicago, with Odubel Herrera catching the final out on the warning track in center field despite falling down as the ball fell into his glove. In the non-no, Hamels walked only two batters while striking out 13. This time, it was all Hamels, who threw 129 pitches in the no-no.

Embed from Getty Images

Two days later, with the Phillies out of contention, Hamels was traded to the Texas Rangers.

Cole Hamels in Texas

Cole Hamels made his debut for the Texas Rangers at Globe Life Park in Arlington on August 1st, pitching against the San Francisco Giants. He gave up five runs in 7.2 innings for a no-decision.

After a loss in his second start with the Rangers, Hamels was excellent down the stretch, going 7-0 in his final ten starts, with a 3.21 ERA. The Rangers were clinging to a one-game lead over the Houston Astros going into the final game of the season. Pitching at home against the Los Angeles Angels, Hamels delivered with a complete game, giving up just two runs on three hits in an easy 9-2 victory.

Back in the playoffs for the first time in four years, Hamels was the Game 2 starter in the ALDS against the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre, giving up four runs (two earned) in seven innings in what would eventually be a 14-inning win for the Rangers.

With the series tied at two games apiece, Game 5 (also at the Rogers Center) was winner-take-all. Through six innings, Hamels had given up just two runs on five hits, including a game-tying home run in the sixth by Edwin Encarnacion. After the Rangers took a 3-2 lead in the top of the seventh, the rails came off in the bottom of the frame, but not because of Hamels’ efforts.

First, Russell Martin reached on an error by shortstop Elvis Andrus. The next batter reached when first baseman Mitch Moreland committed a throwing error on a forceout at 2nd. Andrus committed another error on the next play, loading the bases with no outs. After Hamels got a forceout at home, he was relieved by Sam Dyson, who allowed the tying run to score on a popout sacrifice fly by Josh Donaldson due to a misplay by second baseman Roughned Odor. The game essentially ended on the next at bat when Jose Bautista hit his famous bat-flip three-run home run to give the Jays a 6-3 lead. The Rangers went on to close out with a 6-3 victory, with Hamels the hard-luck loser.

Overall, for the 2016 season, Hamels went 13-8 with a 3.65 ERA with Philadelphia and Texas

In 2016, Hamels made his fourth and final All-Star appearance in an excellent season for the Rangers. He went 15-5 with a 3.32 ERA, helping the Rangers to another division crown. Alas, the Rangers fell to the Blue Jays in the ALDS once again, this time in a three-game sweep, with Hamels getting hammered in Game 1 (3.1 IP, 7 runs, 6 ER).

Embed from Getty Images

After the 2016 campaign, Hamels had finished a run in which he tossed at least 200 innings in eight of the previous nine seasons, just missing with 193.2 innings pitched in his mediocre 2009 campaign. As previously noted, his 2,082 IP from 2007-16 were the third most in all of Major League Baseball. If he had been able to maintain that durability into his mid-to-late 30s, he would have had a much stronger case for Cooperstown.

Unfortunately, his age 33 season (in 2017) marked the beginning of the decline phase of his career. Hamels missed two months with an oblique strain and finished the ’17 campaign at 11-6 with a 4.20 ERA. The Rangers finished well out of the playoffs with just 78 wins.

Hamels was healthy to start the 2018 season. After a slow start, he had a nice run in which he went 3-3 with a 2.81 ERA in 10 starts. His next four starts were not good: he went 1-3 with a 10.23 ERA. With the Rangers out of contention, he was traded on July 27th to the Chicago Cubs.

Cole Hamels: Final Years and Comeback Attempts

Joe Maddon‘s Chicago Cubs were two years removed from exorcising nearly a century of demons by winning the 2016 World Series. Hamels joined a team with two top starting pitchers (Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks) and an offensive core that included Javier Baez, Anthony Rizzo, Willson Contreras, Kris Bryant, and Kyle Schwarber. At the time of the trade, the Cubs were leading the N.L. Central.

The 34-year-old Hamels gave the Cubs exactly what they needed: a dependable starting pitcher, evoking memories of the Hamels of old. In his first five turns in Chicago’s rotation, he went 4-0 with a 0.79 ERA. After four solid efforts that all yielded no-decisions (2.70 ERA), he faded in his final three efforts, going 0-3 with a 4.74 ERA, although his final start (7 IP, 1 ER) was a hard-luck loss.

Embed from Getty Images

Hamels, overall, went 4-3 with a 2.36 ERA in 12 starts with the Cubs, which helped them secure one of the two Wild Card berths in the National League playoffs after losing the N.L. Central’s tiebreaker game against the Milwaukee Brewers. By this year, the Wild Card round was a winner-take-all one-game playoff, with the Cubs hosting the Colorado Rockies. With the game tied at one apiece after nine innings, Maddon used his starting pitchers in relief for the must-win game. Hamels pitched two scoreless innings in the 10th and 11th frames, getting out of a bases-loaded jam in the top of the 11th.

Ultimately, the Cubs scored in the top of the 13th off Hendricks, leading to a 2-1 victory, ending the Cubs’ season and Cole Hamels’ postseason career. In 17 career postseason games, spanning 100.1 innings, Hamels was 7-6 with a 3.41 ERA.

Hamels returned to the Windy City for the 2019 campaign and got off to a good start in the first half of the season, going 6-3 with a 2.98 ERA in 17 starts. In that last start, unfortunately, he had to depart after just one inning due to another oblique strain, which caused him to miss five weeks.

He made 10 more starts and struggled to a 1-4 record with a 5.79 ERA, giving him an overall record of 7-7 and a 3.81 ERA for the entire season.

A free agent in the offseason, Hamels signed a one-year contract with the Atlanta Braves. His shoulder was hurting during spring training of 2020, and then the world shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic. When the season resumed, triceps tendinitis kept him off the big league roster. He only made one start (on September 16th), lasting just 3.1 innings, while giving up three runs.

That September 2020 start, more than three months shy of his 37th birthday, would ultimately be the final effort of Cole Hamels’ career, although he attempted multiple comebacks.

Embed from Getty Images

He signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers in August 2021 but never appeared due to surgery to repair a torn rotator cuff. After multiple surgeries, a year and a half later, Hamels made one more comeback attempt, signing a minor-league deal with the San Diego Padres. He never made it to either the Padres’ AAA affiliate in El Paso or the big club, however, and retired in early August.

The Hall of Fame for and against Cole Hamels

OK, let’s start with the obvious. Making the case why Cole Hamels should not be in the Hall of Fame is easy. Simply put, while he was an excellent pitcher for a decade, he was never the best (or second, or third best) in the game, and his career didn’t last long enough to accumulate the career statistics that are usually required for a Hall of Famer. Additionally, although he had a strong ten-year peak, he never had a period of multiple years of dominance. Finally, although he was a postseason star in 2008 at age 24, he never followed that up with more October glory.

So, to do a play on a staple on this website, here is the “Not Cooperstown Cred” for Hamels:

Not Cooperstown Cred: Cole Hamels (SP)

• 163 career wins, fewer than all but two Hall of Fame starting pitchers (Addie Joss, Dizzy Dean)
• Never won 20 games in a season; career high was 17 wins in 2012
• No Cy Young Awards
• Never finished in the top four of the Cy Young voting; only finished in the top 10 four times
• Almost no black type (league-leading statistics): had the lowest WHIP (10.82) in 2008
• Never led his league in ERA; never finished in the top four of ERA in his league
• Only made four All-Star teams

Wow, that’s pretty bleak. So, is there anything there for a Cooperstown case for Hamels?

The answer is “yes,” sort of, conditionally. The Hall of Fame case for Hamels is that he was a consistent, durable presence in his team’s rotation for ten years. Other than one subpar hiccup in 2009, Hamels delivered high-quality pitching year after year. While he was never the very best, he was always in the upper echelon, a reliable top-of-the-rotation starter who helped his teams win.

Also, and this is an argument that applies to other pitchers as well, Hall of Fame voters are going to have to evaluate starting pitchers from the 21st century with different standards than we applied to starters from the 20th century. Workloads are down, every lineup in the game understands the value of working counts to get top-flight starters out of the game early, and analytics tell managers to pull their starters earlier and earlier.

Complicating this inevitable re-evaluation is that there are four starting pitchers (two still active, and two retired) who are easy calls for the Hall of Fame: the retired Zach Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, and the still-active Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer. All current and future candidates will be measured against this quartet, making the hill a high one to climb.

Anyway, it’s clear that many writers see the challenge and want time to determine how to evaluate the second tier of excellent starting pitchers from the 21st century.

So, from the first 221 ballots submitted to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, 70 voters have checked “yes” next to Hamels’ name. That’s a solid 31.7%, a surprisingly high total for a player with weak traditional Cooperstown credentials.

OK, honestly, I’m soft-pedaling it when I say “surprisingly high.” This is shocking to me. He’s doing better than his longtime teammate Jimmy Rollins (currently at 25.5%), and it’s a reflection that a higher percentage of the BBWAA electorate put a lot of stock in WAR (Hamels’ was 59.0, Rollins’ 47.9).

Although his final total will likely sag when the final vote is posted, a first-ballot performance in the 20’s sometimes turns into 75% in the years that follow.

“Starting pitchers seem to be a dying commodity with Hall of Fame voters, as innings pitched dwindle in favor of max effort and stuff, and to me, marginal guys deserve additional time. I’m voting for Hamels to give the writers some time to size him up. That’s it, and nothing more. Is he making the Hall of Fame? It’s doubtful. Does he deserve to live past one year on the ballot? I believe so. Let’s let further research into his career play out beyond one year.”

— Maury Brown (Forbes) (Dec. 15, 2025)

“I’ll concede Hamels doesn’t “feel” like a Hall of Famer. He wasn’t even the best pitcher on his team for most of his career. But the way starting pitchers are being used these days, it’s pretty obvious the historic standards we’ve used for decades are becoming increasingly more unrealistic as each year passes. As a result, starters could soon become an endangered species in Cooperstown. Let’s give Hamels’ candidacy (along with those of Pettitte, Buehrle and Hernandez) time to marinate. In time, those pitchers’ numbers may be seen in a much more favorable light. I’m more than happy to extend the discussion a little longer.”

— Steve Gardner, USA Today (Dec. 27, 2025)

“Hamels’ traditional statistics don’t measure up to the starting pitchers currently in the Hall: 163 wins, a 3.43 ERA, 2,698 innings pitched and a 123 ERA+. But I covered baseball during the entirety of Hamels’ career, and for more than a decade, every time he pitched, I felt like I was watching one of the best pitchers in the game…. Hamels may not have been as dominant as those three, but for me, you don’t have to be the best pitcher of your generation to make the Hall of Fame. You have to be one of the best pitchers of your generation, and Hamels certainly fits into that category.”

— Mark Feinsand, mlb.com (Dec. 30, 2025)

“He’s admittedly short in the “fame” element, with almost no black ink, just four All-Star teams, and just four seasons with Cy Young votes, never finishing higher than fifth. I do think he was undervalued when it came to those honors, given that he ranked among his league’s top 10 in strikeouts eight times (as high as third), and in ERA and WAR six time apiece.”

— Jay Jaffe, Fangraphs (Dec. 30, 2025)

“I’ll admit, during his playing career, I never really thought of Hamels as a Hall of Famer. He was always just a good pitcher — always there, always performing well, but never the best pitcher in the league, never delivering that blow-you-away season that changes our perception of a player… Judged against his forebears, Hamels doesn’t measure up. He lacks the counting numbers and the win totals and the long, sustained career of dominance. Compared to pitchers of today, he looks like an absolute horse. For his own era — not that long ago, but clearly already a different time — he should be seen as what he was: one of the best pitchers in the league for a long time, a player whose lack of one or two extreme standout seasons shouldn’t detract from a stellar body of work.”

— Dan Barbarisi, The Athletic (Jan. 13, 2026)

These are hardly ringing endorsements, kind of all in the “yeah, pitchers today aren’t what they used to be,” but, given that nearly a third of the writers so far have said “yes” to Hamels, let’s put a little more meat on the bone of his Cooperstown case.

Cole Hamels’ Consistency and Durability

Because he doesn’t have the career statistics of a typical Hall of Famer and is lacking in accolades (Cy Young votes, All-Star appearances), any case for Cole Hamels must rely on him being one of the top pitchers in baseball for ten years (2007-16). That’s a long peak; there are many Hall of Famers who have plaques in Cooperstown because of peak spans of several years fewer than ten.

Although Hamels never ranked at the top of any statistical category during those ten years (except one year where he led the N.L. in WHIP), his value was that he delivered elite value year after year.

So, let’s examine Cole Hamels’ ten-year peak (from 2007 to 2016), his cumulative rank in several statistical categories during those years, and the players he’s behind in these categories. We’ll use 1,250 innings pitched as the minimum standard, yielding a universe of 57 pitchers:

WP Table Builder

OK, this is good, but it’s not great. I have three key takeaways from this:

1. Most of the players that Hamels is behind in these statistical categories are already Hall of Famers or are among the not-yet-eligible quartet previously mentioned (Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke).
2. Felix Hernandez, who is a near-exact contemporary of Hamels, is going to be important to this conversation. King Felix debuted in 2005, Hamels in 2006.
3. Hamels has a “Wins” problem. Despite the fourth-most innings and the second-most quality starts, he’s only tied for 8th in wins.

Regarding point #1, if you imagine a future in 6-7 years where Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, and Greinke all have plaques in Cooperstown, Hamels would rank as follows among non-Hall of Famers from 2007-16:

• 2nd in ERA (behind Hernandez)
• T-5 in Wins (behind Jon Lester, Jered Weaver, Adam Wainwright, and tied with James Shields)
• 2nd in Innings Pitched (behind Shields)
• 2nd in Quality Starts (behind Hernandez)
• 2nd in Strikeouts (behind Hernandez)
• 4th in WHIP (behind Madison Bumgarner, Cliff Lee, and David Price)
• 3rd in ERA+ (behind Lee and Hernandez)
• 1st in WAR

If you wanted to have a “who’s the 5th best pitcher from 2007-16” discussion, it’s between Cole Hamels and King Felix. More on that later.

Cole Hamels in the Context of the Entire 21st Century

I’ve got a few more numbers to share that highlight the durability and consistency of Cole Hamels as a starting pitcher, which is crucial to any argument in favor of the Hall of Fame.

Due to his lack of Cy Young support, it’s obvious that Hamels never had any truly dominant years. But he always helped; he was always an asset, never a liability. The Hall of Fame is filled with pitchers who had multiple brilliant seasons but some stinkers as well.

The chart below is for all pitchers in the 21st century who had the most seasons in which they qualified for the ERA title (minimum of 162 innings) and also had an ERA+ of 120 or better.

Being consistently 20% above league average in ERA helps your team win.

WP Table Builder

I’m using ERA+ rather than ERA because it’s better at equalizing each of the campaigns this century. The overall ERA in Major League Baseball was much higher in 2000 (4.77), for example, than it was in 2014 (3.74). With ERA+, the season average every year is 100, so 120 means that the pitcher in question was 20% above league average.

This is a pretty good list: all but two pitchers on the list are either already a Hall of Famer (CC Sabathia, Roy Halladay) or a cinch to be one soon (Verlander, Scherzer, Kershaw, Greinke). The others are Hamels and Mark Buehrle, whose Hall of Fame is similar in the sense that they were never the top of their league but consistently delivered quality seasons. The difference is that Buehrle wasn’t quite as good as Hamels, but logged 51 more wins in 585.1 more innings pitched.

Next, let’s up the ante to a minimum of 180 innings and an ERA+ of at least 125:

WP Table Builder

The top of this list is really good for Hamels, but the next six names (with only one fewer season with those qualifications) bring in multiple other non-Hall of Fame names.

OK, let’s finish by taking it to another level, with a minimum of 200 innings pitched and a minimum of ERA+ of 130. Today, pitchers hardly throw 200 innings anymore, but those seasons still existed during the careers of the pitchers we’re talking about:

WP Table Builder

This is the “money” list for Hamels. It’s his calling card for Cooperstown. Never the best, but consistently excellent.

Hamels’ career ERA+ is 123. That’s a really good number. It’s better than dozens of Hall of Famers, including Warren Spahn (119), Bert Blyleven (118), Tom Glavine (118), Gaylord Perry (117), Dennis Eckersley (116), Sabathia (116), Steve Carlton (115), Phil Niekro (115), Fergie Jenkins (115), Nolan Ryan (112), and Don Sutton (108).

Of course, the obvious difference between Hamels and these other hurlers is that Hamels’ career innings total (2,698) is vastly below everyone else’s. Eckersley comes in at the bottom of the aforementioned names, with 3,285.1 IP, and he’s in the Hall of Fame because of his prowess as a relief pitcher.

The Case Against Cole Hamels for the Hall of Fame 

All right. Who is convinced? I’m not fully, unless today’s generation of pitchers never match the accomplishments we just saw. So, with that caveat, let’s dig a little deeper by dialing up the previous graphics to one more level.

WP Table Builder

The difference between this graphic and the previous one explains why Cole Hamels never got a lot of Cy Young consideration. Cy Young Award winners usually do much, much better than 30% above average with respect to their ERA. He had only two seasons in which he went above 140, in 2008 (141) and in 2014 (152). He was always really good, but never truly great.

Of the pitchers with a lower career ERA+ than Hamels, only one pitched fewer innings: it was 19th-century player John Ward (2,469.2 IP), a two-way player whose bulk value was as a shortstop/second baseman in the final ten years of his career.

Let’s Talk About Wins and Losses

OK, there are some of you who will read the last headline and say, “Whaaaaat, who cares?” But there are others who will think, “It’s about time!!” For the last several decades, we’ve learned that wins and losses for pitchers are subject to the vagaries of run support and the quality (or lack thereof) of the bullpen on the starting pitcher’s team.

On an individual season basis, this can lead to wildly unjustified win-loss totals, both on the positive and negative sides. On the negative, let’s just say that Paul Skenes probably deserved more than a 10-10 record this year. But, over the course of a long career, to these eyes, wins and losses are still meaningful. Good pitchers win more games than they lose, and great pitchers win a lot more than they lose.

Cole Hamels’ 163 career wins are a massive problem in his Hall of Fame case. Not only that, but his career high for a single season is 17 (in 2012). And he only won 15 or more games in three seasons in his career, despite pitching for many good teams.

Every Hall of Fame starting pitcher won 15+ games at least four times in their career, and all but one (Jesse Haines) won 15+ at least five times. Additionally, there is no starting pitcher with a plaque in Cooperstown who didn’t win 20 games at least once and all but one (John Smoltz) won 18 or more multiple times.

As Hall of Fame enthusiasts, we’re going to have to eventually embrace a “never won 20 games” starting pitcher for Cooperstown, but this is still a hurdle for Hamels to overcome with a lot of voters.

Anyway, let’s look at how Hamels’ win total stacks up with the other pitchers of this century. Here is the list of the 13 pitchers with the most career wins, who debuted in 2000 or later:

WP Table Builder

You can see here, plain as day, the divide between the top five (Verlander, Sabathia, Greinke, Kershaw, and Scherzer) and everyone else. But, since Hamels is our focus here, it’s important to note that he’s behind a lot of other guys, a couple of whom haven’t hit the ballot yet (Jon Lester, Adam Wainwright).

Hamels is low on this list in part because he didn’t pitch a ton of innings, only 2,698. We already know this. But that’s still more than Wainwright, Roy Oswalt, and Barry Zito, and barely behind (less than 50 IP) Lester and King Felix.

Other than the top five and Buehrle, Hamels’ career pitching WAR (57.9) and ERA+ (123) are higher (mostly a lot higher) than the other guys on the list, but it’s still troubling that his win total is so much less.

Elite Pitcher Wins and Losses Compared to Their Teammates

Although random luck and run support are always a factor, elite pitchers will almost always outperform their teammates when it comes to wins and losses. The classic example is Steve Carlton on the 1972 Phillies: he went 27-10 (.730 WL%) with a 1.97 ERA on a team that went 59-97.  The rest of the ’72 Phillies pitchers went 32-87 (.269 WL%) with a 4.23 ERA.

That’s the most extreme example that I can think of. What I wanted to find out is how much Cole Hamels overperformed his teammates on the Phillies, Rangers, and Cubs.

So, I created a spreadsheet comparing Hamels’ (and other pitchers’) won-loss records compared to their teammates. This was not a perfectly scientific project. I tried, as much as I could, to apply common sense to some of these numbers. As an example, if a pitcher didn’t make their season debut until July 1st, I used his teammates’ record from July 1st until the end of the season. I also excluded seasons in which some pitchers were used primarily (or exclusively) as a reliever. So, the numbers you’re about to see are not 100% perfect, but they’re close enough to be statistically valid.

Using the list of 13 pitchers who debuted in 2000 or later that we showed with the most wins, here is how their win-loss totals compare to their teammates:

WP Table Builder

As you can see, John Lackey and Barry Zito are the outliers on this list. They pitched for a lot of good teams, with a lot of excellent starters as teammates. But, as for the other eleven pitchers on the list, Hamels outperformed his teammates (from a WL% standpoint) to a lesser degree than all the others.

Now, while it’s true that Hamels had Roy Halladay as a teammate in Philadelphia, that was for only two prime seasons of his career. The pitchers with the most starts for the Phils from 2006-15 (besides Hamels) were Kyle Kendrick and the age 43-to-47 version of Jamie Moyer.

Just to expand the frame slightly, here are the numbers of some other non-Hall of Fame pitchers who either debuted before 2000 or finished their careers with fewer wins than Hamels.

WP Table Builder

Hamels is behind all of these pitchers except for Andy Pettitte, and he’s barely behind Pettitte, who spent a good chunk of his career with Roger Clemens as his teammate, and also several years with Mike Mussina and CC Sabathia.

Curt Schilling spent four of his best years in the shadow of Randy Johnson, and he still outperformed his teammates overall by 98 percentage points.

Meanwhile, David Price, Cliff Lee, and Johan Santana all had careers with even fewer innings pitched than Hamels, but, pound for pound, outperformed their teammates to a much greater degree and have other points in favor for the Hall of Fame. All three were Cy Young Award winners (twice for Santana),

Can We Explain this by Run Support?

By the way, if you’re wondering about run support, it does at least partially explain Cole Hamels’ relatively weak showing on these charts. During his career, he received 4.1 runs per nine innings that he pitched, while the league average was 4.3.

This graphic shows the following items (in order):

• Wins: no explanation needed
• Wchp: “Cheap Wins,” in which a pitcher won the game with a non-quality start (less than 6 innings and/or more than 3 ER)
• Ltuf: “Tough Losses,” in which a pitcher lost the game despite a quality start (at least 6 IP, with 3 or fewer ER)
• RS/IP: Run Support per 9 innings while the pitcher was in the game.
• MLB Avg: the average RS/IP in the Majors.

WP Table Builder

As you can see, it does appear that, over the course of his entire career, Hamels was a bit unluckier than some of his peers in terms of the number of runs received while he was in the game. He also had 40 potential wins in which his teams were winning when he left, but the bullpen blew the W for him. That’s more than everyone on the list above except for Tim Hudson (50) and Lester (47).

What Does All of This Mean?

If you’re wondering why I’m exhaustively going through these graphics, it’s because it’s in pursuit of the larger goal, which is to look at how we can evaluate starting pitchers now and into the future, when pitchers with 200 career wins become an endangered species.

Here is the list of active pitchers with the most career wins:

1. Justin Verlander (266)
2. Max Scherzer (221)
3. Gerrit Cole (153)
4. Chris Sale (145)
5. Sonny Gray (125)
6. Yu Darvish (115)
7. Jose Quintana (113)
8. Zach Wheeler (113)

In case you’re wondering, Jacob deGrom has only 96 career wins, and he’ll turn 38 next June.

It’s too early to project the career win totals for the likes of Paul Skenes and Tarik Skubal, but the point here is that, once Verlander and Scherzer retire, there will be nobody even close to 200 wins. Cole (35 years old) could still get there, but it’s less likely for Sale (turning 37 in March), and, after that, who knows? Wheeler (turning 36 in May) doesn’t seem like he has enough time left, and deGrom certainly doesn’t.

FanGraphs’ Jay Jaffe also addressed this issue, about what happens to starting pitchers in the Hall of Fame after Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer get their plaques: “While small-Hall-minded voters might be fine with the prospect of there never being another starting pitcher elected after the aforementioned quartet, the rest of us would still prefer to see the best ones of their time honored, understanding that doing so will require us to adjust our standards.”

It’s for this reason that Jaffe checked “yes” for Cole Hamels: “I’m not yet convinced he’s a Hall of Famer, but I haven’t dismissed the possibility.” That’s not close to an enthusiastic “yes,” but it speaks to the fact that we’re going to need ten years or more to evaluate the next tier of starting pitchers after the inevitable enshrinements of Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer.

The Starting Pitchers on the 2026-29 BBWAA Ballots

Before we go, let’s take a look at the four top pitchers on the 2026 BBWAA Hall of Fame ballot (Cole Hamels, Mark Buehrle, Andy Pettitte, Felix Hernandez), and expand the frame to include four aforementioned hurlers who will be hitting the ballot in the next few years: Jon Lester (2027), David Price (2028), along with Zack Greinke (2029) and Adam Wainwright (2029).

WP Table Builder

Looking at these eight names, it’s not hard to make a case that, pound for pound, Hamels is the second-best on the list, only to Greinke. If you believe that WAR is the true measure of a pitcher, he was better than both Pettitte and Buehrle, given that his WAR is almost as high as theirs, despite pitching over 500 innings less than both.

As the existing candidates on the current ballot, Pettitte and Buehrle haven’t gotten anywhere with the BBWAA. Pettitte, who has been on the ballot seven times, got his highest vote share last year (at 27.9%, not even sniffing at the 75% minimum required for the Hall of Fame). Buehrle, who, unlike Pettitte, never had Hall of Fame “vibes” during his career, has maxed out at 11.4% (in 2025).

Pettitte is the “show horse” in this group, if only because he was a fixture on our TV screens in October. His lack of success thus far with the BBWAA, despite his gaudy 256 wins, is likely because he admitted to using HGH (Human Growth Hormone) during his career.

Buehrle, on the other hand, was a true workhorse, unspectacularly logging over 200 IP for 14 straight seasons before falling barely shy at 198.2 IP in his final campaign. If he hadn’t walked away from the game at age 36, he might have reached 250-to-270 wins and been a much stronger candidate.

Cole Hamels vs. King Felix

Statistically, the pitcher most similar to Cole Hamels in all of baseball history is Felix Hernandez. “Similarity Scores” (a Bill James invention) compares all players based on the similarity of their traditional statistics (so, this doesn’t include WAR, ERA+, WHIP, etc.).

King Felix rates a “similarity score” of 959 compared to Hamels (out of a max of 1,000, which would be precisely identical statistics):

WP Table Builder

If you had a binary choice between the two pitchers for the Hall of Fame, who would you choose? (You don’t, by the way: any voter can choose both or neither).

Anyway, Hamels has the edge on sabermetric stats: 57.9 WAR, compared to King Felix’s 49.9, along with a 123-to-117 edge on ERA+.

But Hernandez has black type: he led the league in ERA twice, wins once, WAR once, and WHIP once, while Hamels only won one statistical category (WHIP).

Plus, Hernandez has a Cy Young Award trophy on his mantle, along with two runner-up finishes. Hamels never finished higher than 5th in the Cy Young balloting, and, having gone through each of the four seasons in which he received down-ballot votes, there are no instances where a credible argument could be made that he was robbed of the award to a less worthy fellow hurler.

So, to me, it’s King Felix. Besides the accolades, he also won more games than Hamels. Given that he spent his entire career with the Seattle Mariners, who never made the playoffs during his tenure, Hernandez’s low win total is more easily explained than Hamels’.

Tracking the Tracker

Based on the early returns, Felix Hernandez is indeed considered the best Hall of Fame candidate among the four starters on the current BBWAA ballot. According to Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame tracker, Hernandez has earned 57.0% of the first 221 reported votes; Andy Pettitte is also at 57.0%, Cole Hamels at 31.7%, with Mark Buehrle far behind at 23.5%.

The early results of Thibodaux’s tracker always overestimate a player’s ultimate total, so none of these four pitchers are going to be on stage in Cooperstown next summer. But the early returns do indicate that there is solid support for Hernandez and Pettitte in particular, and for Hamels to a lesser extent.

Given that there will be strong resistance from “old school” writers to Hamels’ counting stats, I think it’s highly unlikely that he ever gets close to the 75% needed for the Hall of Fame, but I’ll admit again that I’m surprised by his strong early showing.

For the reasons articulated above, I think King Felix has a good chance at reaching 75% in the next several years.

Looking down the road, Greinke is an easy Hall call based on longevity, his Cy Young Award, and his high WAR. What will be fascinating is to see how Jon Lester and Adam Wainwright do. Like Hamels, both pitchers have starred in the postseason. Unlike Hamels, both pitchers reached the milestone of 200 wins.

Both Lester and Wainwright were inconsistent (especially Wainwright), which partially explains their lower career WAR (43.5 for Lester, 41.0 for Wainwright). Lester never won 20 games, but he won 19 twice and 18 once, and finished in the top four of the Cy Young voting three times.

Wainwright truly had a Jekyll and Hyde career. He won 20 games twice and 19 games twice. His WAR was above 6 in all four of those campaigns, resulting in two runner-up Cy Young finishes and two third-place finishes. But he had only one other campaign with a WAR of 3 or better (3.7, in 2021).

Conclusion

Anyway, regarding our featured attraction, it’s pretty clear that the jury is out on Cole Hamels and the Hall of Fame. He has no chance to make it this year, and is a long shot to get to 75% in the next ten years, but it’s not an impossibility.

The reason I think he won’t make it is that writers are going to dismiss his candidacy when Greinke, Kershaw, Verlander, and Scherzer hit the ballot with vastly superior numbers. He’ll also suffer in comparison to Lester and Wainwright among writers who focus mostly on wins and losses.

It comes back, once again, to 163 wins. A low win today is fine if you’re Dizzy Dean or Sandy Koufax, but Hamels never dominated the league as they did. His career WAR (59.0 overall, including hitting) is only the 72nd best in MLB history. His adjusted WAR7 (best seven seasons) is 78th best.

To these eyes, Hamels had an excellent career, but I’m not convinced that he’s worthy of a spot in the Hall of Fame. But it looks like he’ll get a full ten years on the ballot, and that’s a good thing.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on BlueSky @cooperstowncred.bsky.social or on X @cooperstowncred.

Embed from Getty Images