Mariano Rivera: Mr. Unanimous

Once every couple of years a candidate arrives on the Hall of Fame ballot who is universally respected, who embodies everything that you would want a Hall of Famer to be. He has a great career record, he’s made a significant impact on multiple World Series Championship teams, and he’s the embodiment of high character. Mariano Rivera was that kind of candidate.

There was a great deal of chatter in social media in the last few weeks about whether Rivera would become the first player in the history of the Hall of Fame to be inducted with 100% of the vote. Considering that there are some voting members of the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) who are hostile to relief pitchers in general, I felt it was highly unlikely that Rivera would pitch a perfect game on the ballot.

Think for a moment about the history of the Hall of Fame voting, with respect to players on the ballot for the first time. 20 writers didn’t vote for Ted Williams. 43 didn’t vote for Mickey Mantle. 23 said “no” to the “Say Hey Kid,” Willie Mays. 9 writers didn’t think Hank Aaron deserved their vote for a Cooperstown plaque. Even in recent years, when the silliness started to end, the closest any player could get to unanimity was Ken Griffey Jr., who received all but 3 votes in 2016.

Mariano Rivera: Tier One Hall of Famer

I was so very pleased to be wrong. On Tuesday, after announcing the names of the four BBWAA-elected Hall of Famers (Rivera, Edgar Martinez, Mike Mussina and the late Roy Halladay), MLB Network host Brian Kenny asked Hall of Fame President if there was any news about Rivera’s vote total. Idelson said simply, “100 percent.” I am quite certain that my personal reaction (“Yes!!!!! Wow!!!!!”) was duplicated by baseball fans throughout the nation.

In case you’re wondering if Rivera and his family ascribed any significance to the honor of being the first unanimous selection, I invite you to watch how Mariano and family reacted to the news. The next day, on MLB Tonight, Rivera compared the emotion he felt about being the first unanimous pick to winning the World Series.

The fact that he got 425 out of 425 votes shows unequivocally that Mariano Rivera is not only a Hall of Famer but an inner circle Hall of Famer. If Cooperstown inductees were placed in tiers, Mariano Rivera is Tier One.

In balance of this piece (mostly written last fall when he appeared on the BBWAA ballot) , I’ll briefly recap the story of Rivera’s brilliant career and then attempt to answer this question: where does the Great Mariano rank among all players in the history of baseball? Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher ever; that’s not something to be argued. The question is, when it comes to value and importance and contribution to winning. where does he rank among all players and pitchers?

Be sure not to leave before the end of the piece (Mariano’s Legacy). You will need a tissue for your tears if you click on the various video links of the tributes to this great Yankee’s career in his final season.

Cooperstown Cred: Mariano Rivera (RP)

• Elected to the Hall of Fame in 2019 (100% of the vote)
• New York Yankees (1995-2013)
• Career: 82-60, 2.21 ERA, 652 Saves
• Career: 205 ERA+, 56.3 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 652 career saves are the most in MLB history
• 2.21 career ERA is best in MLB (min. 750 IP) in last 100 years
• Career 205 ERA+ is best in the entire MLB history (min. 750 IP)
• 13-time All-Star
• 5 times in top 5 of Cy Young Award voting
• Member of 5 World Series championship teams with New York Yankees
• Career in post-season: 141 IP, 8-1, 42 saves (out of 47 chances), 0.70 ERA

(cover photo: USA Today/Anthony Gruppuso)

Mariano Rivera: Before Making it to the Bronx

Mariano Rivera, born in Panama City on November 29, 1969, didn’t start pitching until he was 19 years old. He took to it well, however, because the New York Yankees signed him at the age of 20, on February 17, 1990. At the time, Rivera didn’t speak a word of English and didn’t even consider himself a pitcher yet. In a twist of historic karma, his first pitching coach was Hoyt Wilhelm, who was at the time the only relief pitcher ever inducted into the Hall of Fame.

In his first season in the minor leagues (rookie ball), he was used almost exclusively as a reliever and seemed to take to the role. Spanning 52 innings, Rivera gave up one earned run (for an ERA of 0.17), struck out 58 and walked 7. In 1991, in A Ball, Rivera was used as both a starter and reliever and posted a 2.75 ERA, with a still impressive 123 strikeouts in 114.2 innings.

Rivera only pitched 22 times in 1992-93 due to surgery on his ulnar collateral ligament. It wasn’t a full Tommy John surgery, just a “clean-up” so he was able to return to the mound less than a year after the operation.

Rookie Year: 1995

Mariano Rivera made his Major League debut on May 23, 1995, as a starting pitcher. His career didn’t begin well: in four starts, he managed just 15 innings while serving up a 10.20 ERA.

Mariano was demoted back to AAA Columbus after his fourth start, on June 11th. 23 days later he was back in the majors and pitched eight innings of scoreless, two-hit ball, with eleven strikeouts.

What happened in the intervening 23 days is truly the stuff of legend. His fastball suddenly rose in velocity from about 90 miles per hour to 95. Rivera has publicly credited God for the sudden increase in his fastball velocity; it occurred just as the team was contemplating trading him to the Detroit Tigers for David Wells.

The rest of the ’95 season did not go quite according to what you would expect in the tale of a legend but he did open a lot of eyes in the ALDS against Seattle, in which he threw 5.1 innings of scoreless ball. In the decisive 5th game (which the Yankees would go on to lose), Rivera was summoned in the bottom of the 8th inning with the bases loaded. He struck out Mike Blowers on three pitches.

How Mariano Rivera almost Got Traded

Shortly before the ’96 season, Yankees owner George Steinbrenner was worried about having a rookie (some guy named Derek Jeter) open the season as the team’s starting shortstop. As a result of the Boss’ unease, General Manager Bob Watson explored the possibility of trading Rivera to Seattle for the legendary Felix Fermin.

Fortunately for the Yankees, Watson, assistant GM Brian Cashman, former GM Gene Michael, third base coach Willie Randolph and new manager Joe Torre all talked Steinbrenner out of the idea, mostly as a vote of confidence in Jeter and not because of the potential loss of Rivera.

Imagine how baseball history might have been different if Mariano Rivera had joined a franchise with Ken Griffey Jr., Edgar Martinez, Alex Rodriguez and Randy Johnson.

Set-up Man: 1996

Mariano Rivera didn’t get traded. He remained a Yankee forever. The man who would become the greatest closer in the history of the sport had perhaps his finest season in his sophomore campaign of 1996 in which he was the set-up man for John Wetteland.

In 61 games (and 107.2 innings), Rivera posted a 2.09 ERA (park-adjusted for a 240 ERA+) and struck out 130 batters. The season earned him a 3rd place finish in the A.L. Cy Young Award vote. Although Wetteland was getting the saves and the glory in October, Mo’s post-season magic continued; he gave up just one run in 14.1 innings for a 0.63 ERA, earning one win and 4 “holds.”

Yankee Closer: 1997-2013

In seventeen seasons as the anointed closer in the Bronx (one season of which, 2012, was cut short by injury), Mariano Rivera entered 723 games with the opportunity to collect a save and he succeeded in 89% of those opportunities, closing his career with 652 saves overall.

Add in 42 saves in the post-season and 4 more in the All-Star Game and Rivera finished his career with 698 saves overall. Yes, it’s not as famous as his post-season record, but Rivera pitched 9 innings in the Mid-Summer Classic and yielded just five hits with no walks and one unearned run.

Mo’s career post-season record (in which he posted a 0.70 ERA over 141 innings) is so other-worldly that it’s hard to describe in words and even harder to quantify as to the relative impact he had in procuring five rings for the Bombers in comparison to his illustrious teammates.

His October record was so impeccable that, when starting to write this piece, I was actually able to remember four out of his five post-season blown saves. They are the walk-off home run to the Indians’ Sandy Alomar in the 1997 ALDS, the bloop game-winning single by the D’Backs’ Luis Gonzalez in Game 7 of the 2001 World Series and his Game 4 and 5 blown saves in the 2004 ALCS against Boston.

The fifth, which I had forgotten, was in Game 2 of the 2004 ALDS against Minnesota, a game in which the Yankees eventually won anyway. When events are this rare, like an eclipse of the sun, you tend to remember them.

Yankees fans will prefer the memories of the four times Rivera was on the mound for the final, clinching out of a World Series title (which he did in 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2009).

Humble Style for a Humble Man

So many of the top relief aces in the last fifty years have done it with flair, style and facial hair. Whether its Dennis Eckersley’s finger-point or Fernando Rodney’s shooting arrow, many closers punctuate their final outs.

Rivera’s style was one of unqualified grace. While the Yankee Stadium loudspeakers blared the Metallica song “Enter Sandman” (the team’s answer to Trevor Hoffman’s “Hells Bells” entrance), Rivera would calmly jog in from the bullpen. For the Sandman, each relief appearance was just another day at the office.

A humble, God-fearing man, Rivera didn’t intimidate with a 100 mile per hour fastball or a mustachioed scowl. He intimidated with one un-hittable pitch, his signature cutter. Rivera’s cutter jammed left-handed batters and broke away from right-handers. In his career, his record against lefty hitters is actually slightly better than against righties.

I don’t think there is a stat for this but if there is, I have no doubt that no pitch in baseball history broke more hitters’ bats than Rivera’s cutter.

How Does Mariano Rivera rank among Relief Pitchers All-Time?

Hall of Famer Rich Gossage might disagree but it’s pretty obvious to me that Mariano Rivera was the greatest relief pitcher in the history of the game. Gossage has mused that today’s one-inning closers have it easy compared to the firemen of the 1970’s and 1980’s, who often pitched two or three innings to get their saves.

In his autobiography, this is how Gossage described the role of a closer:

“It’s imperative that closers realize that, no matter how overpowering their stuff, they are always one pitch away from disaster. Being a closer on a baseball team is like working a high wire without a net. There’s no margin for error.”

— Goose Gossage (in “The Goose is Loose” (2000))

The Goose, of course, does have a point. Saves became easier in the late 1980’s when Tony La Russa and others started using their relief aces in the 9th inning only.

Rivera saved 652 games in his regular season career. In 316 of those saved games, he entered the game in the 9th inning with a 2 or 3 run lead. For those games, Rivera did have a net, he did have a margin for error. He saved games in that situation at a 97% clip (316 out of 326).

By comparison, only 30 of Gossage’s 310 career saves occurred in that same situation (9th inning, 2 or 3 run lead).

Even so, Rivera did save 118 games in which he entered the game in the 8th inning, 94 of them with runners on base.

Rating Rivera’s Numbers

Besides having 51 more saves than Trevor Hoffman and 174 more than Lee Smith (who will join Rivera in Cooperstown this summer as a Today’s Game Committee inductee), Rivera dominates his peers in any category you can think of. Using a minimum standard of 1,000 innings, here is how the Great Mariano compares to #2 in each of the named statistical categories:

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Rivera, of course, is #1 in all of these categories.

In his career, Mo pitched 1,283.2 innings. If you lower the innings standard to 900 IP, Billy Wagner takes over the lead in batting average against and (barely) in WHIP (walks + hits per inning). If you lower the innings standard all the way to 500, Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen start appearing at the top of the leaderboards. It’s important to know, however, that Kimbrel (532.2 IP) and Jansen (548.2) are light years away from Rivera’s career innings total.

Also, you’ll notice that Rivera and Hoffman have a much higher save success percentage than Dennis Eckersley. If you drop the minimum innings requirement to 900, Joe Nathan would be tied with Rivera at 89.1% and Eckersley would be 6th. It should be noted that 366 of Nathan’s 377 career saves were of 1 inning or less.

Are the Rate Stats Fair to Gossage and other Multi-Inning Firemen?

To answer the question about whether it’s fair to compare Rivera’s rate stats (ERA, WHIP, SO/BB) to the multi-inning closers of the 1970’s and 1980’s, the answer is between “sort of” to “probably not.” The higher percentage of successful saves to blown saves is a function of how many outs each closer needed to get to earn that save.

Gossage and fellow Hall of Famers Rollie Fingers or Bruce Sutter would often enter the game in the 7th or 8th inning. If you enter in the 7th and get out of a jam, you still have to preserve the lead again in the 8th and again in the 9th to get that save.

So, what does this all mean? How do we properly quantify the added value of the multi-inning saves authored by the stoppers of the ’70’s and ’80’s compared to the high number of one-inning saves put up by the closers of today? And how do we quantify the differing degree of difficulty of a “clean 9th inning” save as opposed to a “on fire” runners on base save?

The answer is imperfect but there is one statistic that actually gets us close. It gets us close, not all the way there.

Win Probability Added (WPA)

The statistic that gets us almost there is called WPA (Win Probability Added).

WPA takes each individual play and assesses to what degree it increases or decreases the player’s team’s chances for a win. Therefore, an out to end a one-run game has a dramatically higher WPA than an out in the seventh inning of a 10-0 contest.

If you’re the type to lose patience with some of the advanced statistics, hang in with me for a bit on this one. It’s easy to understand how WPA works and it’s important for the evaluation of relief pitching.

WPA is a “counting” stat that can count backwards too. If you’re a closer and you enter a game with a 3-run lead in the 9th, you should close out that game over 96% of the time. Therefore, depending on the ballpark and the season, you would get approximately 0.04 WPA “points” for bringing your team from a 96% win probability to 100% (an actual win).

If, on the other hand, you give up four runs and lose that game, you’ll get -0.96 WPA “points” if it’s a road game. (If you’re pitching at home, your team still has a chance to come back to win so you can’t go from 96% to 0%).

Now, if you enter the game in the 9th with just a one-run lead and convert the save, that’s worth anywhere between 0.16 and 0.24 WPA. Why such a big difference? It’s because of the ballpark and the season. Using Trevor Hoffman as an example, a 9th inning save with a one-run lead at PetCo Park was worth about 0.16 WPA. A 9th inning save with a one-run lead at Coors Field was worth about 0.24 WPA because it’s much easier to score runs at Coors Field.

Here is a list of the career Top 5 for relief pitchers for Win Probability Added. These are regular season numbers and they ONLY include games in which the listed pitchers appeared out of the bullpen.

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As you can see, it’s not close. Mariano Rivera reigns supreme.

Greatest Postseason Pitcher of All Time

Given that Super Mariano posted a 8-1 record with 42 saves and a 0.70 ERA in 141 postseason innings, I’m not going to spend a lot of time trying to convince you that he was the best postseason pitcher ever. WPA, however, can be useful in quantifying the size of the chasm between Rivera and all the rest.

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In case you’re wondering about some other famous stars of October, Orel Hershiser is 7th, Madison Bumgarner 8th, and Rollie Fingers 12th.

Among position players, David Ortiz leads with a 3.2 WPA, which puts him 6th overall behind Lester.

How Does Rivera compare to the Great Starting Pitchers in the Game?

I’m going to briefly tackle a bias that is held against all relief pitchers, including Mariano Rivera. The bias is that they are inherently less important and inferior to starting pitchers. The argument is two-fold.

The first point is that virtually all top bullpen aces are “failed starters.” This is mostly valid. Pretty much every elite closer had a period of time in the majors or the minors where they were deemed to not have “starting pitcher” stuff.

Rivera didn’t have a good record as a starting pitcher in 1995. Could he have become a good starter? I have no doubt that he could have. However, as a pitcher who relied mostly on one pitch (the cutter), he may never have become a Hall of Fame caliber starter.

The second point is that relief pitchers toss vastly fewer innings than their starting pitcher counterparts. This, of course is true. A typical starter will log three times as many innings as a top reliever.

It’s for this reason that devotees of WAR (Wins Above Replacement) hold relief pitchers in general disdain. Rivera’s career WAR was 56.3. If you are a WAR-monger, that means you believe that Rivera was less valuable than starting pitchers such as Mark Buehrle (60.3 WAR), Chuck Finley (58.5), Frank Tanana (57.6), or Tim Hudson (56.9).

Now, I doubt there is actually anybody who actually believes that. Nor is there a single sane human being (baseball player or otherwise) who would rather have had the career of Buehrle, Finley, Tanana or Hudson than the career of Rivera. No disrespect meant to Mark, Chuck, Frank or Tim. They were all excellent hurlers, just not Hall of Famers.

WAR is a useful statistic in general but it is utterly useless if you use it to compare relief pitchers to starting pitchers.

How Does Mariano Rivera rank against the Game’s All-Time Greats at All Positions?

The best way to compare the relative worth of a relief pitcher to a starter or position player is to use WPA, which measures the impact that reliever had on whether his team wins or loses baseball games.

WPA, like WAR, can be calculated for both pitchers and position players. The outcome of every batter-pitcher matchup alters the win probabilities for each team. When Kirk Gibson hit his walk-off home run in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series, he upped the Dodgers win probability from 13% to 100% so he got 0.87 WPA. Conversely, Dennis Eckersley got -0.87 WPA because he took his team from 87% to zero.

So, how does Mariano rank with the top superstars in the game’s history?

To compare Rivera to the great hitters and pitchers since 1925, we’ll use WPA for both, adding in the post-season. Although, by adding October games, I’m rigging it in Rivera’s favor, post-season baseball is the most important part of the game’s history.

If I really wanted to rig this chart, I would multiply the players’ post-season WPA’s by a factor of five or ten because the games are so much more important, they’re more memorable, and they put the Fame in Hall of Fame. In case you’re wondering why I’m only going back to 1925 (sorry Babe Ruth), it’s because Baseball Reference only calculates the statistic going back to that year.

Anyway, here we go:

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Now, there is a big whopper of a caveat to this list and it’s that, for position players, it only measures their contributions at the plate and on the base paths. Defense is not included. So I’m not going to say that Mariano Rivera added more value to his teams than Rickey Henderson, who was an excellent defensive player until his mid-30’s.

But when you compare Rivera to a mostly one-dimensional slugger with a similar regular season WPA, such as contemporary Frank Thomas (60.6 career WPA), it’s entirely reasonable to put Rivera in a class one rung above because of his post-season accomplishments.

As you look at the list, there’s no caveat needed when you see that the only pitchers above Rivera on this list are Roger Clemens and Lefty Grove.

If you look at regular season numbers only, there are only four pitchers higher on the career WPA list: Clemens, Grove, Greg Maddux and Warren Spahn. I’m not saying that Rivera was the 5th best pitcher in baseball since 1925. But is he the 5th most important? That’s a different question entirely and a “yes” response is not unreasonable at all.

Mariano Rivera is one of the greatest players in the history of baseball, not just one of the best relief pitchers.

Mariano Rivera’s Legacy

The Last Number 42

On April 15, 1997, the 50th anniversary of the breaking of the color barrier, Jackie Robinson’s uniform #42 was retired throughout the game of baseball, the exception being that any player currently wearing the number on their back could continue to do so for as long as they wanted. At the time, 13 different MLB players wore #42.

When Mo Vaughn retired after the 2003 season, Rivera was the last of the 42’s. For a decade, he was the only player in baseball with the honor of wearing that sacred number on his back and Robinson’s widow and descendants could not have wished for a man more worthy of wearing it.

R-E-S-P-E-C-T

Because of the good fortune of having matured into the magnificent pitcher that he was at the same time that Jeter arrived in the Bronx along with a parade of many other proficient major leaguers, Mariano Rivera was able to make a great lasting impression on the collective body of the baseball universe, an impression that earned him nearly universal respect.

I grew up a fan of the New York Mets and Boston Red Sox in the 1970’s and have never actually “liked” the Yankees. But even without liking them, there was respect for the great players they had and the titles they won.

No player was respected more by their opponents and, more importantly, by the fans of their opponents, than Rivera. This is a subjective argument but I place Rivera in a class one rung above his long-time teammate Jeter when it comes to the respect and adoration he felt from other players in the game.

It’s close, and the two will be inextricably linked, but I always felt that Rivera was in a different class simply because of his extraordinary October numbers. Jeter was also great in October (and in November, as Michael Kay’s famous 2001 World Series call reminds us) but his overall post-season statistics were a mirror of his regular season numbers. Rivera’s were in a different stratosphere.

Last Hurrah

In Rivera’s final season (2013), the respect he had earned was shown throughout the game of baseball by nearly non-stop tributes and appreciations. Even as a fan who never rooted for his team, I had to fight back tears three different times in his “victory tour.” The first was when he entered the All-Star Game at Citi Field (the home of the cross-town Mets) and all of the other American League players retreated to the dugout to give Mariano center stage, allowing him to take a final nationally televised bow by himself.

The second was in his final appearance at Fenway Park.

Despite the long history of an often bitter rivalry, on Sunday night, September 15, 2013, Rivera was honored at Fenway. It started with the Boston Cello Quartet playing a string version of the closer’s theme song, “Enter Sandman” (wait until 0:55 to actually see the Quartet). We all could see how highly regarded and admired Rivera was by both the Red Sox players and Fenway faithful. The entire Red Sox team gathered on the infield to shake the hand of the smiling Mariano. Ortiz gave Rivera a Papi bear hug. The entire ceremony is linked here.

And, of course, there was the final game of his career at Yankee Stadium. It wasn’t exactly a storybook ending (the Yankees lost the game 4-0) but Rivera still pitched flawlessly. He entered the game (watch his final entrance to the Metallica song that became Mo’s anthem) with two runners on base in the 8th and got two outs to end the inning. Then, after recording two outs in the 9th, long-time teammates Jeter and Andy Pettitte came out to the mound to take the ball and give Mo his moment alone with the adoring Stadium crowd.

An Upcoming Summer Day in Cooperstown, New York

Mariano Rivera will have the opportunity to take one more bow this summer when he’s inducted into the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. There will no doubt be thousands of Yankees fans who make the trek from the tri-state area to the little upstate village in Cooperstown. It will be a special moment for Rivera, for all Yankees fans worldwide and Rivera’s native country of Panama.

On a stage with four other inducted Hall of Famers and the family of the late Halladay, Rivera will be center of attention. After all, he isn’t just a Hall of Famer, he is a Tier One Hall of Famer and he is Mr. Unanimous.

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