Clayton Kershaw’s 3,000th K puts a Cherry on his Hall of Fame Sundae

On Wednesday night in Los Angeles, Los Angeles Dodgers pitcher Clayton Kershaw became the 20th pitcher in Major League Baseball history to strike out his 3,000th batter. The 6’4″ lefthander, now 37 years old, got a called third strike on the White Sox’s Vinny Capra to end the top of the 6th inning for the 3,000th K.

Kershaw joined Walter Johnson and Bob Gibson as one of only three pitchers to record 3,000 strikeouts with only one team. He’s also now one of three active hurlers to reach the milestone, joining Justin Verlander and his former teammate Max Scherzer. With the exception of Verlander, Scherzer, Roger Clemens, and Curt Schilling, all of the other members of the 3,000 strikeout club are in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum.

Kershaw is a star who announced himself early in his MLB career as a future Cooperstown inductee. By the time he turned 27 years old, Kershaw was already a three-time Cy Young Award winner and the winner of an N.L. Most Valuable Player trophy. As a dominant lefthander plying his trade at Dodger Stadium, the comparisons came quickly with Hall of Famer Sandy Koufax, also a three-time Cy Young winner and a former MVP. The difference, of course, was that Koufax won three World Series Championships with the Dodgers and was the MVP in two of those titles.

For Kershaw, as we’ll document, October glory was elusive for what seemed to Dodger fans like an eternity.

Cooperstown Cred: Clayton Kershaw (SP)

• Los Angeles Dodgers (2008-25)
• Career: 216-94 (.697 WL%), 2.52 ERA, 3,000 Strikeouts
• Career: 155 ERA+, 76.8 WAR (Wins Above Replacement)
• 10-time All-Star
• Won the N.L. Cy Young Award in 2011, 2013, and 2014
• Two runner-up Cy Young Award finishes in 2012 & 2015
• Won the N.L. MVP in 2014 (21-3, 1.77 ERA, .0857 WHIP)
• Led N.L. in ERA five times

(cover photo: USA Today Sports)

This piece was originally posted in October 2018. It has been updated several times since then, most recently in October 2020, when Kershaw finally became a World Series Champion.

Clayton Kershaw and the Quest for a Ring

In October 2020, in Arlington, Texas, about 20 miles from his hometown in Dallas, Clayton Kershaw finally won a World Series championship. Kershaw had for years been one of the best regular-season pitchers in the history of baseball, but had always had the blemish of not being able to deliver in the biggest moments of October.

Earlier in his career, I always felt that Kershaw was the Peyton Manning of baseball. Year after year, Kershaw was one of the best pitchers in baseball, but he couldn’t make it to the World Series. Similarly, Peyton was usually the best quarterback whose team always felt short of the Super Bowl. In 6 of Manning’s first 8 NFL seasons, the Indianapolis Colts made the playoffs but didn’t make it to the big game. Similarly, in six of Kershaw’s first nine MLB campaigns, the Dodgers made the playoffs but failed to win the pennant.

Of course, in Manning’s 9th NFL campaign, Peyton and the Colts did win the big one, prevailing in Super Bowl XLI over the Chicago Bears. In Kershaw’s 9th MLB campaign, the Dodgers fell to the Chicago Cubs in the National League Championship Series. The Dodgers did make the World Series in 2017 and 2018 but lost both series (to the Houston Astros and Boston Red Sox).

And so, as the Dodgers made it to the Fall Classic in 2020, in Kershaw’s 13th season in the league, a loss could have made him the John Elway of baseball. Elway had lost three Super Bowls with the Denver Broncos before finally winning Super Bowl XXXII in his 15th season in the league and at the age of 37.

Kershaw started Games 1 and 5 of the 2020 World Series (against the Tampa Bay Rays) and won both contests while sporting a 2.31 ERA. When his teammates came through with a Game 6 win, Kershaw became a World Series Champion.

“I’ve been saying ‘World champs’ in my head over and over again, just to see if it will sink in. I think it’s just a feeling of contentment, joy, Then to get to see that group of guys and how happy everybody was. Only one team gets to do it every year, and it’s not an easy thing to do. It’s just a really special thing.”

— Clayton Kershaw (October 28, 2020)

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Clayton Kershaw and the Road to the Ring

Thanks to the COVID-19 pandemic, the 2020 season will be remembered as the shortest and strangest campaign in MLB history. The Dodgers had by far the best regular-season record in the 60-game season (43-17), but that offered no guarantees in a playoff derby that featured 16 games and a 3-game opening round.

After making just 10 starts in the regular season (6-2, 2.16 ERA), Kershaw was the Game 2 starter in the Wild Card round (against the Milwaukee Brewers), and he offered a vintage performance. In 8 shutout innings, Kershaw struck out 13 batters while yielding just three hits and one walk. It was arguably the best of Kershaw’s 37 career postseason outings, and it propelled the Dodgers to a Division Series matchup against the San Diego Padres.

The Dodgers again engineered a sweep, with Kershaw the winner in Game 2 (with 6 innings and 3 ER allowed). In the NLCS (against the Atlanta Braves), it looked as if Kershaw’s postseason curse had reared its ugly head again. With the Dodgers down 2 games to 1, Kershaw was the starter and loser in Game 4 (giving up 4 runs in 5 innings). Fortunately for Kershaw, his teammates swept the next three games to propel the Dodgers to their third pennant in the last four years and, eventually, the World Series title

Comparisons to Sandy Koufax

As previously noted, the comparisons to Sandy Koufax came early in Clayton Kershaw’s career. Like Koufax (6’2″), Kershaw is a tall (6’4″) left-handed starter. In his youth, he had a blazing fastball and a killer curve. He posted ERAs under 3.00 while piling up big strikeout totals. He called Dodger Stadium his home. And, like Koufax, Kershaw was expected to deliver multiple World Series Championships to the Dodger faithful. Even after the 2020 title (and another in 2024, in which he did not participate), it’s the last part where Kershaw’s legacy is divergent from Koufax’s.

In 2019, in Game 5 of the National League Division Series against the Washington Nationals, Kershaw once again failed to live up to the Koufax legacy as a postseason ace. It might have been the most bitter. With the Dodgers holding a 3-1 lead over the Nats in the top of the 7th inning with two outs and two runners on base, Dodgers manager Dave Roberts brought him in from the bullpen to get out the left-handed-hitting Adam Eaton. Kershaw struck out Eaton on three pitches, and the crowd roared.

Not trusting his regular bullpen in the big spot, Roberts brought his longtime ace starter back to face the Nats in the top of the 8th. Kershaw then proceeded to yield back-to-back home runs on consecutive pitches to Anthony Rendon and Juan Soto, allowing Washington to tie the score at 3. Later, in the top of the 10th, former Dodger Howie Kendrick hit a grand slam off Joe Kelly to lead Washington to a 7-3 win. In a battle of postseason curses (Kershaw’s and the Nationals’), Clayton’s curse was stronger. (Washington, of course, would go on to win the World Series).

Until 2020, it was Kershaw’s ups and downs in playoff ball (many more downs than ups) that frustrated Dodgers fans throughout his otherwise magnificent career.

The Legacy of Sandy Koufax

The Brooklyn Dodgers moved to Los Angeles in time for the 1958 season. After four seasons in the Los Angeles Coliseum, which was ill-suited for baseball, the team moved into Dodger Stadium, a sparkling new ballpark in Chavez Ravine.

The move to Dodger Stadium coincided with the emergence of Koufax, one of the most dominant pitchers the game of baseball had seen in decades.

The Brooklyn native struggled to find his form early in his career. He was 36-40 with a 4.10 ERA from 1955-1960, six years that included three years as a spot starter in Brooklyn and three mediocre campaigns in Los Angeles.

Koufax turned his career around in 1961 and, for six seasons, went 129-47 with a 2.19 ERA, including an other-worldly 1.86 ERA in his final four campaigns.

During those final four years, Koufax won 3 Cy Young Awards, an MVP trophy, and was twice named World Series MVP. All told, the Left Arm of God sported a 0.95 ERA in 57 World Series innings en route to 3 World Championships.

Koufax and Kershaw

So, fast forward to the early 2010s, and here you have the second coming of Koufax in the body of Clayton Kershaw. As previously noted, just like Koufax, Kershaw has 3 Cy Young Awards and an MVP Trophy. Clayton had a four-year run (2013-16) with a microscopic ERA (1.88).

Koufax and Kershaw. Two lefties. Two Dodgers. Two pitchers with 3 Cy Youngs and an MVP. Two hurlers with last names starting with the letter K. There are two differences, one painfully obvious, the other not as much. The not-so-obvious difference is that, as we’ve seen, Koufax was a mediocre pitcher in his youth. His first Hall of Fame quality season was at the age of 25. Kershaw was highly productive at the age of 21 and a Cy Young winner at 23.

Of course, there is the obvious. The postseason piece never came together for Kershaw, and until 2020, it was a monkey that was a King Kong-sized gorilla on his back. While Koufax is one of the greatest October pitchers in the history of baseball, Kershaw’s playoff performances had been filled mostly with disappointment. In 194.1 innings spanning 12 postseasons, Kershaw is 13-13 with a 4.49 ERA.

Dodgers fans stopped expecting Clayton Kershaw to be Sandy Koufax a long time ago. Kershaw may win another World Championship on the field (possibly this year), but he’ll never match Koufax’s postseason record.

It doesn’t matter. One day, Kershaw is going to join Koufax with a plaque in the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum. When he has his day in Cooperstown, Kershaw will go in on the strength of what he’s accomplished on the mound during a remarkable 18 years during the regular season.

When it comes to October, Kershaw is no Koufax. When it comes to the games played in April through September, only a small handful of pitchers in baseball history (not including Koufax) can match what Kersh has accomplished..

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Clayton Kershaw by the Numbers

I’m not making a big and bold pronouncement when I claim that Clayton Kershaw is a lock to go to the Hall of Fame.

For the casual fan, it’s easy for Kershaw’s October failures to obscure how truly great he’s been in the 441 games he’s pitched in regular-season ball. So, let’s look at some of those numbers.

• Kershaw’s career ERA of 2.52 is the lowest of any pitcher with at least 2,500 innings pitched since 1919 (the end of the “dead ball” era). The next best is Whitey Ford (2.75 ERA).
• His career WHIP (walks + hits per inning) of 1.014 is, again, the lowest of any pitcher with 2,500 IP in the last 107 years. The next best (Chris Sale) is not even close, at 1.049
• Opposing batters have posted a .590 OPS against Kershaw. Yes, that’s the best for any pitcher in those 107 years.
• His Win-Loss% (.697) is, again, the best since 1919.

OK, well, that’s pretty good. When it comes to rate stats, Kershaw is at the top of the charts in four of them over a 107-year period. Not bad.

Clayton Kershaw’s Last Ten Seasons

For many years now, baseball fans have noted that Clayton Kershaw is in the decline phase of his baseball career. Back, shoulder, foot, and knee injuries have limited his innings in every campaign since 2016.

In the first of those injury-plagued seasons (2016), Kershaw still managed a 12-4 record with a 1.69 ERA in 149 innings pitched. In 2017, he finished 2nd (to Scherzer) in the Cy Young vote with an 18-4 record and a league-leading 2.31 ERA. The last time that Kershaw qualified for the ERA title was in 2019, when he went 16-5 and had a 3.03 ERA.

After pitching 58.1 innings (with a 2.16 ERA) in the COVID-shortened 2020 season, Kershaw averaged just 102 innings from 2021-24, with the worst of those campaigns coming last year; in just 30 innings, he went 2-2 with a 4.50 ERA.

Although he hasn’t been the same in the most recent five campaigns as he was previously, he still has a 2.93 ERA from 2021-25, the fifth-lowest ERA for any starting pitcher to toss at least 450 innings.

Clayton Kershaw’s First 10 Seasons (2008-2017)

Clayton Kershaw, as a rookie in 2008, only pitched 107.2 innings. He was 20 years old. What he did in the nine seasons thereafter made him a virtual lock for the Hall of Fame, making the last ten campaigns functionally irrelevant.

From 2009-2017, Kershaw was #1 in WAR, ERA, ERA+, WHIP, W-L%, BAA (batting average against), OPS against, complete games, shutouts, and Win Probability Added (WPA, see Glossary). He was 3rd in Wins (barely behind Verlander and Scherzer) and 2nd in Strikeouts (behind Scherzer).

His ERA+ for those nine seasons was 168. If you’re not familiar with ERA+, the metric puts traditional ERA on a scale where 100 is average. It’s adjusted for ballpark effects and also the overall hitting environment of each season. In other words, the current homer-happy game is not the same as 1968 (baseball’s “year of the pitcher”).

Anyway, Kershaw’s 168 ERA+ means that his ERA from 2009-17 was 68% above the MLB average. The second-best ERA+ for these years (for pitchers tossing at least 1,500 innings) belonged to Kershaw’s former teammate Zach Greinke (with a 132 ERA+).

From 2009 to 2020, Kershaw’s ERA+ was 161. So, let’s take a look at the names of the pitchers who have authored a 12-year stretch in which they posted an ERA+ of at least 160.

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That’s the entire list. Walter Johnson, Pedro Martinez, Greg Maddux, Randy Johnson, Lefty Grove, and Clayton Kershaw. That’s it. Five Cooperstown legends and Kersh.

Seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA

Here’s one more statistical nugget to put in Clayton Kershaw’s basket. Since his rookie campaign (2008), Kershaw has only had an ERA above 3.00 four times (he posted a 3.03 ERA in 2019, 3.55 in 2021, 4.50 in 30 innings last year, and 3.43 so far in 2025). He’s been under 2.50 nine times and under 2.00 in three different campaigns.

Using a minimum standard of 140 innings pitched, here are the pitchers with the most seasons pitched with an ERA under 3.00 in the last 100 years:

• Tom Seaver (12)
• Roger Clemens (11)
• Clayton Kershaw (10)
• Greg Maddux (10)
• Bert Blyleven (10)
• Jim Palmer (9)
• Gaylord Perry (9)
• Lefty Grove (9)

What do all of those hurlers have in common? Nothing, actually, other than having 9 or more seasons with a sub-3.00 ERA. Clemens and Kershaw are not in the Hall of Fame, but the others are.

Now, again using at least 140 IP, here are the pitchers with the most campaigns in which they posted an ERA under 2.50 (since 1920):

• Clayton Kershaw (6)
• Greg Maddux (6)
• Juan Marichal (6)
• Pedro Martinez (5)
• Randy Johnson (5)
• Roger Clemens (5)
• Jim Palmer (5)
• Tom Seaver (5)

Oh, by the way, there are two pitchers with three separate campaigns with an ERA under 2.00 (again, since 1920): Clayton Kershaw and Sandy Koufax.

Will Clayton Kershaw’s Postseason Record Tarnish his Hall of Fame Plaque?

The answer now, of course, is much different from it was in 2019 because he now has a title (technically, he has two rings since he was a member of the 2024 Dodgers, but he only participated in the 2020 Championship).

Still, Kershaw’s record isn’t just historically bad for somebody as accomplished as he is; it’s just plain bad.

• 32 pitchers in baseball history have tossed 100 or more postseason innings. Kershaw’s 4.49 ERA (in 194.1 IP) is the worst by quite a bit (Hall of Famer CC Sabathia‘s career postseason ERA is 4.28).
• 46 pitchers have thrown 20 or more postseason IP in potential “elimination” games. Kershaw’s 5.77 ERA (in 43.2 IP) is the second-worst to Tim Wakefield’s 6.75. Those 43.2 IP for Clayton include 6 starts and 5 relief appearances. The Dodgers lost 7 of those 11 games (he has not pitched in an elimination game since 2019).

Now, let’s be fair. You’ve got to be great to keep getting the ball in big moments despite the history of failure. The Boston Red Sox’ David Price was historically awful in playoff baseball (2-9, 5.42 ERA in 19 appearances from 2008-18) until he pulled it together for four brilliant outings against the Houston Astros and Kershaw’s Dodgers (3-0, 1.37 ERA) in 2018. Those four outings helped the Sox beat the Dodgers in the 2018 World Series.

Also, in one of Kershaw’s worst October outings (Game 5 of the 2017 World Series in Houston), the opposing hitters might have (ahem) known what pitches he was going to throw.

By the way, there are more examples of great hurlers struggling in October:

• Pedro Martinez had a 5.17 ERA in 6 career games in which his team needed to win to stay in the title chase.
• Roger Clemens had a 5.28 ERA in 7 career “win or go home” outings.
• Max Scherzer had a 5.93 ERA in 8 elimination games until he exorcised his demons with 7 innings of one-run ball in Game 4 of the 2019 NLDS, again against Kershaw’s Dodgers.

Martinez, Clemens, and Scherzer all wound up as eventual World Series champs, as Kershaw now has as well.

The Dodgers have now been in 14 different postseason parties during Kershaw’s career, including the last 12 in a row. There was a lot of failure in those years, and the Dodgers’ ace lefty was at the center of a lot of it.

Conclusion

The postseason failures ultimately won’t matter when it comes time for Clayton Kershaw to be considered for the Hall of Fame. Although he has “only” 216 wins in his 18-year MLB career, his elite performance for so many of those years put him in a peak performance category alongside the likes of Koufax and Pedro Martinez.

Kershaw is 37 years old. Theoretically, he could keep pitching for several more years (Verlander is 42, while Scherzer turns 41 in a few weeks, and both remain active). Still, it’s kind of felt for years like Kershaw was almost done. And yet, despite all the injuries, he is still authoring quality performances. After an uneven debut this year, he’s posted a 2.66 ERA in eight starts, going 4-0.

Kershaw will never get to 300 wins (nobody will) and most likely won’t reach 250, but he’s already a Hall of Famer, and his 3,000th strikeout on Wednesday puts a cherry on his Cooperstown sundae.

What Kershaw has already done has put him in the company of baseball’s great legends of today and yesterday.

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