Sometime today, at the MLB Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, the Today’s Game Committee will vote on 10 candidates for the Hall of Fame in Cooperstown.  The results will be announced this evening on MLB Network. The committee is a 16-person panel that includes 9 Hall of Famers, 4 team executives and 3 members of the media.

The 10 candidates for the Hall are players Albert Belle, Harold Baines, Joe Carter, Will Clark, Orel Hershiser and Lee Smith, managers Davey Johnson, Lou Piniella and Charlie Manuel and the late George Steinbrenner, former owner of the New York Yankees.

Each committee member will be allowed to vote for a maximum of 4 out of the 10 candidates. If a candidate gets 12 or more votes, he will be inducted into the Hall of Fame next summer.

The 16 Members of the Today’s Game Committee

(cover photo: AP & Pinterest)

In this piece, I will briefly point out the connections that each of the 10 candidates have to the various committee members. In order for a player to get elected, they need to have a really strong advocate or (better) multiple advocates who makes an impassioned plea to their fellow committee members about why a particular candidate belongs in the Hall.

Key fact: one brief note before we get started. Alomar, Ozzie Smith, Gillick, Beeston, MacPhail, Kurkjian and Hirdt were also on the Today’s Game Committee two years ago. That committee elected Schuerholz and Bud Selig to the Hall of Fame. That committee also did not elect Belle, Baines, Clark, Hershiser, Johnson, Piniella and Steinbrenner. Among those 7 returning candidates, Piniella got 7 votes. All the others got “less than 5,” which is the Hall’s way of not embarrassing anybody.

Lee Smith: Cubs, Red Sox, Cardinals, Yankees, Orioles, Angels, Reds, Expos

  • Career: 478 Saves (3rd most-all-time), 3.03 ERA
  • 7-time All-Star

I’ve written elsewhere that Lee Smith is by far the most likely candidate on the Today’s Game ballot to get elected to the Hall of Fame on Sunday. Unlike the other player candidates, Smith lasted a full 15 years on the writers’ ballot, getting as high as 50.6% in 2012. In the history of Hall of Fame voting, every player except for Gil Hodges who earned at least 50% of the writers’ vote eventually got into the Hall via some incarnation of the Veterans Committee.

Besides the high level of support from the BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America), Smith has the easiest Hall of Fame case to understand. He has the third most saves in baseball history and was the all-time leader for over 13 years.

Who are Smith’s most likely advocates? First and foremost would be Joe Torre, who was his manager in St. Louis from 1990-1993. Smith saved over 40 games for three years in a row for Torre while twice finishing in the Top 4 of the Cy Young voting.

From those Cardinals teams, Ozzie Smith is also on the Today’s Game Committee and another likely advocate for the big right-hander. Among the players on the panel, I would also expect Joe Morgan to be in Smith’s corner. As we could all see from his two decades on ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball, Morgan is an “old school” guy when it comes to players. He seems like a guy who would put a lock of stock in the number 478.

From the media members on the committee, Claire Smith (of the New York Times and then ESPN) voted for Smith consistently on the BBWAA ballot. Tim Kurkjian (ESPN) also voted for Smith a couple of times at least but also had several years in which he did not cast his ballot for him.

For more on Smith’s career and Cooperstown credentials, click here.

Orel Hershiser: Dodgers, Indians, Giants, Mets

  • Career: 204-150 (.576), 3.48 ERA, 51.6 WAR
  • Won 1988 Cy Young Award (23-8, 2.26 ERA), finished season with 59 consecutive scoreless IP
  • MVP of the 1988 NLCS and 1988 World Series

Orel Hershiser is one of four player candidates who was also on the Today’s Game ballot two years ago and didn’t get any reported votes (which means between zero and four). There are no members of the 16-person committee with obvious ties to Hershiser but there are a couple of people who witnessed Orel at his best first hand.

First among those is Tony La Russa, manager of the 1988 Oakland Athletics. La Russa had the “pleasure” of watching the Los Angeles Dodgers beat his team in 5 games in the World Series. Orel pitched complete games in both Games 2 and 5, winning both while yielding just 2 runs on 7 hits.

There’s also Greg Maddux, who matched up against the then 37 year old Hershiser in Game 5 of the World Series. Maddux (a four-time Cy Young Award winner) had the chance to clinch the World Series for the Atlanta Braves but Hershiser, pitching for the Cleveland Indians, gave up just 2 runs (1 earned) in 8 innings. The Bulldog outpointed the Mad Dog.

Hershiser got just 11% of the vote on his first BBWAA ballot (in 2006) and was knocked off after the next year (2007). He’s likely to come up short again on Sunday but, in my opinion, is a deserving candidate. For more on his career and Cooperstown case, click here.

Albert Belle: Indians, White Sox, Orioles

  • Career: .295 BA, 381 HR, 1,239 RBI, 144 OPS+
  • 5-time All-Star, 5 times in Top 10 of A.L. MVP Voting

Albert Belle was one of Hershiser’s teammates on the star-studded Indians teams of 1995 and ’96. Like Hershiser, he lasted just two years on the BBWAA ballot, maxing out at 7.7% in 2006. Like Orel, he fell below 5% in 2007.

Belle also has a small link to Maddux, having hit a two-run home run off him in that Game 5 matchup won by Hershiser and the Indians. That’s pretty weak but I thought I’d point it out anyway.

The controversial left fielder has a strong tie to Jerry Reinsdorf, the longtime owner of the Chicago White Sox. After the 1996 season, Reinsdorf signed the free agent Belle to a 5-year, $55 million contract, making him the highest paid player in baseball.

Belle had one so-so season and a monster year for the Chisox but then opted out of his contract based on a clause saying that he had to be one of the three highest paid players in the game. The Baltimore Orioles thereupon bailed Reinsdorf out by signing Belle to a 5-year, $65 million deal. Belle only played two years with the Orioles before being forced to retire due to a degenerative hip condition.

I have no idea how Reinsdorf feels about Belle today but his wallet told us in 1996 that he felt he was signing a Hall of Fame caliber slugger.

Anyway, I would be stunned if Belle were selected for the Hall of Fame by the Today’s Game Committee. Like Hershiser, he was on the ballot two years ago and got nowhere. Due to his on-field and off-field controversies and that his counting stats fell short of traditional power hitter benchmarks, he’ll be easy for committee members to bypass.

That doesn’t mean that Belle doesn’t have a strong case. He does. For more on the enigmatic Belle, please click here.

Harold Baines: White Sox, Rangers, Athletics, Orioles, Indians

  • Career: .289 BA, 384 HR, 1,628 RBI, 121 OPS+
  • 6-time All-Star

Harold Baines is also closely tied to Jerry Reinsdorf. Baines was a second-year player in 1981 when Reinsdorf purchased the team. I have no idea how Reinsdorf feels about Belle but I can guess that he loves Baines. After all, the White Sox retired Baines’ uniform #3 in 1989, just a few weeks after the longtime rightfielder/DH had been traded to the Texas Rangers. It’s extraordinarily rare for a player’s uniform number to be retired while he’s still active.

As it was with Hershiser and Belle, Baines got nowhere on the 2017 Today’s Game ballot but he has two key potential advocates that were not a part of the 2017 committee. Those potential advocates are Reinsdorf and La Russa.

La Russa was Baines’ manager from 1980 until early 1986. Baines was then reunited with his first skipper on the Oakland Athletics from 1990-92.

Among the panel members who are returning from the 2017 committee, Roberto Alomar was Baines’ teammate in Baltimore (1997 & 1998) and in Cleveland briefly in 1999. In addition, Pat Gillick was the Orioles General Manager when Baines was in Baltimore for those two years.

If, and it’s still an “if,” Baines has those two to four supporters, he’d still need eight to ten more votes to get the 12 needed for induction. Modern analytics are not kind to Baines (38.7 WAR, 121 OPS+) but it’s possible there will be 12 voters who don’t care.

Baines actually lasted for 5 years on the BBWAA ballot but never exceeded 6% of the vote. I consider him a long shot but perhaps the long shot with the best chance among the players outside of Lee Smith.

More more on Baines, click here.

Will Clark: Giants, Rangers, Orioles, Cardinals

  • Career: .303 BA, 284 HR, 1,205 RBI, 2,176 Hits, 137 OPS+, 56.5 WAR
  • 6-time All-Star, 4 times in Top 5 of N.L. MVP Voting

Of the six player candidates on the Today’s Game ballot, Will Clark has the best numbers when it comes to the modern metrics of WAR and OPS+. How that will play with the 16 voting members of the committee is hard to predict.

One might surmise that Clark’s numbers might impress the current and former General Managers on the panel (Gillick, Schuerholz, MacPhail and Avila) but that comment is just a guess. As I wrote in my profile about Clark’s candidacy, Will the Thrill doesn’t have a good “elevator pitch” other than that his nickname was “The Natural” in his early years.

Greg Maddux might recall (with pain) how Clark went for 3 for 3 with two home runs and 6 RBI against him in his first ever postseason start (Game 1 of the 1989 NLCS).

Other than that, there aren’t any close connections to report.

Clark got just 4.4% on his first and only BBWAA ballot (2006) and went nowhere on the 2017 Today’s Game ballot. Unless somebody on the panel makes an impassioned case that impresses everyone, I don’t see how Clark makes it.

Joe Carter: Cubs, Indians, Padres, Blue Jays, Orioles, Giants

  • Career: .259 BA, 396 HR, 1,445 RBI, 231 SB
  • Won the 1993 World Series with walk-off home run in Game 6

OK, I’ll admit, I was flabbergasted when I saw Joe Carter’s name on the Today’s Game ballot. Two of the most commonly used metrics of today are unkind to Baines but they’re downright cruel to Carter.

Carter’s career WAR is 19.6, which is lower than every enshrined Hall of Famer but one (Tommy McCarthy of the 19th century). In addition, his OPS+ is just 105, or 5 above league average.

“Touch ’em all” Joe’s chief calling card, besides the Fall Classic walk-off, is that he drove in 100 runs in ten different seasons. He also had five different ten-year periods of time in which he led the majors in RBI. Carter’s OPS+ and WAR are so low because of a poor walk rate and terrible defensive metrics.

Carter, however, has at least three potential advocates on this committee. Pat Gillick was the General Manager of the Blue Jays when they won back-to-back World Championships, with Carter being a mainstay in those lineups.

Also on the committee is Paul Beeston, who was the President and CEO of the Jays during Carter’s early years there. Finally, there’s Alomar, his teammate on the championship teams.

I also know from my days working for ESPN’s Sunday Night Baseball that Morgan was a fan of Carter as a “RBI man.” And, for whatever it’s worth, Carter hit .391 with a 1.056 OPS in 47 plate appearances off Bert Blyleven.

Still, despite some obvious potential supporters, I can’t see Carter getting 12 votes. There are going to be at least five members of the committee (probably way more) who will see the WAR and OPS+ and offer a thumbs down.

Although his heart might be with Carter, Gillick spent enough years as a General Manager that he would likely have a hard time looking past the poor analytics. The same may be true for other theoretical advocates. In Carter’s one appearance on the BBWAA ballot (2004), he received just 3.8% of the vote.

For more on Carter’s unlikely Cooperstown candidacy, click here.

George Steinbrenner

  • Principal Owner of New York Yankees from 1973 until his death on July 13, 2010
  • Yankees won 7 World Championships while Steinbrenner was owner

Steinbrenner was the ultimate “love him or hate him” character for the over three decades that he owned the Yankees. This is the fourth time he’s been on either the Veterans Committee or Today’s Game ballot and has gotten nowhere. That means the “hate him” crowd has outnumbered the “love him” crowd.

Joe Torre is in the Hall of Fame because Steinbrenner hired him just in time for the Derek Jeter/Mariano Rivera years. One might imagine that Torre might make the case that Steinbrenner’s passionate desire to win trickled down throughout the organization. The Boss might have been a pain in the ass but he would do whatever he could as an owner to help his teams win championships.

Another potential advocate for Steinbrenner might be Claire Smith. The longtime columnist for the New York Times and ESPN, Smith once noted that Steinbrenner and Brian Cashman were the only owner and GM “who have hired not one but two female assistant GMs [Jean and Kim Ng]. And I’m very proud of that and very proud of the Yankees.”

One other progressive thing that Steinbrenner did years ago was hire Suzyn Waldman to be the longtime color commentator on the Yankees’ radio network.

Smith was inducted into the Hall of Fame in the summer of 2017 as the first woman reporter to be awarded the J.G. Taylor Spink Award. I realize that it might seem insulting to assume that Smith would be in Steinbrenner’s corner because The Boss hired women to fill roles traditionally held by men. The point I’m trying to make is that, as a longtime beat reporter following the Yankees, she might have a broader perspective than the caricature of the bombastic owner who fired Billy Martin a couple of hundred times in the ’70’s and ’80’s.

As I wrote recently, I think Steinbrenner should be in the Hall but I doubt it will happen. The “hate him” crowd has always dominated the “love him” crowd. Unless Torre, Smith or some other panelist make the sales pitch of the century, I don’t see 12 votes for King George.

Lou Piniella: Manager for the Yankees, Reds, Mariners, Devil Rays, Cubs

  • 1,835 career wins is 16th most all-time (behind 12 Hall of Famers, Bruce Bochy, Gene Mauch & Dusty Baker)
  • 3-time Manager of the Year (1995 AL, 2001 AL, 2008 NL)
  • Managed 1990 Cincinnati Reds to World Championship & 6 other teams to the postseason

Outside of Lee Smith, Lou Piniella is the most likely candidate on the Today’s Game ballot to make it to 12 votes and get elected to the Hall of Fame. I say this because, as noted earlier, Piniella got 7 votes on the 2017 ballot, the most by far among the seven returning candidates. With 7 of the 16 committee members in 2019 being the same as in 2017, one can assume that Sweet Lou has some votes already banked.

The only direct link Piniella has to any of the 16 committee members is to Gillick, who was the GM of the Seattle Mariners from 2000-2003. Of course, it’s possible that Gillick might be a little sore that Piniella couldn’t lead the 116-win team from 2001 into the World Series.

Torre and La Russa, of course, managed against Piniella. La Russa, in particular, got to manage against Sweet Lou during the 1990 World Series, a four-game sweep for Piniella’s Reds over the mighty Athletics.

Alomar, Maddux and Ozzie Smith played against teams managed by Piniella. Having said that, I’m reaching here.

I have no idea how any of the new committee members will feel about his candidacy. For more on Sweet Lou, click here.

Davey Johnson: Manager for the Mets, Reds, Orioles, Dodgers, Nationals

  • Career: 301 games over .500, 15th best in MLB history
  • 2-time Manager of the Year (1997 AL, 2012 NL)
  • Managed 1986 New York Mets to World Championship & 5 other teams to the postseason

Davey Johnson is on his fourth different Veterans Committee ballot. So far, he’s 0 for 3. After 6+ seasons with the New York Mets from 1984 to early 1990, Johnson never lasted long in his other jobs. Highly opinionated and sometimes insubordinate, he was known for wearing out his welcome early in multiple jobs.

On this committee, Johnson has two links: Gillick (the GM in Baltimore in 1996 and ’97) and Alomar (who played on those teams).

Anyway, I have no reason to think that this Today’s Game Committee will feel any differently towards Johnson’s candidacy than the previous committees did for the Hall of Fame classes of 2008, 2010 or 2017.

For more about Davey’s managerial career and why sabermetric pioneer Bill James thinks he’s already cleared the bar to make it into the Hall, click here.

Charlie Manuel: Manager for the Indians & Phillies

  • Career: 1,000-826 (.548 WL%) in 12 years as MLB manager for Indians & Phillies
  • Managed 2008 Philadelphia Phillies to World Championship & 5 other teams to the postseason

Given that he’s just 64th on the all-time list for manager wins, it was a bit puzzling to me to see Charlie Manuel’s name on the Today’s Game ballot.

The 11 men who were on the Historical Overview Committee (the people who chose the 10 candidates) were as follows: Bob Elliott (Toronto Sun); Jim Henneman (formerly Baltimore Sun); Rick Hummel (St. Louis Post-Dispatch); Steve Hirdt (Elias Sports Bureau); Bill Madden (formerly New York Daily News); Jack O’Connell (BBWAA); Jim Reeves (formerly Fort Worth Star-Telegram); Tracy Ringolsby (Baseball America); Glenn Schwarz (formerly San Francisco Chronicle); Dave van Dyck (Chicago Tribune); and Mark Whicker (Los Angeles News Group).

The presence of Elliott (from the Toronto Sun) helps explain Joe Carter’s presence on the ballot. I’m missing the connection that suggested Manuel.

Anyway, in just 12 seasons in MLB dugouts, Manuel did have a good deal of success, skippering 6 squads to the post-season. And, of course, he won the 2008 World Series with the Phillies and the ’09 pennant as well.

For those of you who are Manuel fans, the good news is that there are some connections (potential advocates/supporters) on the 16-person committee. The obvious one is Gillick, who was the General Manager of the Phillies from 2006 to 2008. There’s also Alomar, who played for Manuel in Cleveland in 2000 and 2001.

Finally, although its hard to see the relevance, Manuel (as a player) was teammates with Blyleven in Minnesota from 1970 to 1972. Manuel was mostly used as a pinch-hitter. In his six-year playing career he played in 242 games (starting only 64). He hit .198 with a .534 OPS.

To me, it’s unfathomable that Manuel would get 12 votes from this committee. For the reasons why, click here.

Wrapping Up

I hope you found this piece at least marginally interesting. I don’t, however, want to overstate the relevance.

Just because two men were teammates or had a player-manager relationship, that doesn’t mean that the committee member will necessarily vote for the prospective Hall of Fame candidate. Just as familiarity can breed respect, it can also breed contempt.

There are some members of the committee with few or no connections to the 10 candidates on the ballot. Other than a possible fondness for Joe Carter, who’s to say how Paul Beeston will feel about the other nine. How will Detroit Tigers General Manager Al Avila feel about the candidates? He has no connection that I know of to any of them.

Bert Blyleven played with Manuel and pitched against Baines, Belle and Carter. Will those batter-pitcher matchups inform his choices or will he draw more from his 23 seasons as a broadcaster for the Minnesota Twins?

The deliberations of these committees are notoriously secret. The Hall of Fame never reveals who voted for whom, nor do they reveal the vote totals for all of the candidates.

We will know on Sunday, however, if the 15 men and 1 woman collectively decide to elect one or more of the 10 candidates on the Today’s Game ballot. With bated breath, we await the verdict.

Thanks for reading. Please follow Cooperstown Cred on Twitter @cooperstowncred.

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